"Very surprising" - Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev ATP Finals clash schedule baffles tennis insider as qualification scenarios emerge
The John Newcombe Group featuring Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev at the 2024 ATP Finals will be decided after the final Round Robin matches are played. However, the timing of the matches will also play a role in the qualification scenarios.
Alexander Zverev is in the best position to qualify as the group winner as he won both his matches against Casper Ruud and Andrey Rublev. Alcaraz and Ruud will be in a battle for qualification as both players have won one each.
The Spaniard won against Rublev while the Norwegian got the better of Alcaraz. Although Rublev can still qualify, his odds of doing so are extremely low as he has lost both matches. Notably, all matches in the John Newcombe Group have been decided in straight sets.
Coming to Friday's schedule, Alcaraz's highly-anticipated clash against Zverev will be played before Ruud vs. Rublev. Tennis insider Jose Morgado noted that if the Ruud vs. Rublev match was played first, Alcaraz vs. Zverev could have been a 'live rubber' match with both players having something on the line.
However, with the current schedule, there is a high chance that Ruud vs. Rublev will become a dead rubber game for the Russian.
"Very surprising Friday schedule in Turin... If they scheduled Ruud vs. Rublev first, the second match would be a live rubber for both players... Now, if Alcaraz defeats Zverev at 2pm, that second match would only matter for Ruud, who will have his scenarios very clear," Morgado wrote on X.
Rublev can only qualify if Zverev defeats Alcaraz in two sets and the Russian defeats Ruud in two sets, which will further take the qualification scenarios for second place into the percentage of games won.
Qualification scenarios for Carlos Alcaraz, Alexander Zverev and Casper Ruud at the ATP Finals 2024
Alexander Zverev is in the most comfortable position in the John Newcombe Group at the 2024 ATP Finals. The German is highly likely to end the group as the winner with Carlos Alcaraz and Casper Ruud fighting for the second qualification spot. Let's take a look at some of the possible scenarios:
If Zverev defeats Alcaraz, and Ruud also wins, Zverev will lead the group with Ruud in second place. If Alcaraz beats Zverev and Rublev defeats Ruud, then Alcaraz wins the group with Zverev in second.
Several scenarios also depend on the match lengths: if Zverev wins in three sets and Rublev defeats Ruud in two, Alcaraz can still qualify in second place. Alternatively, if Alcaraz beats Zverev in two sets and Ruud wins, Rublev is eliminated, and the standings depend on each player’s game-winning percentage.