WTA Finals 2024: Iga Swiatek & Barbora Krejcikova's SF qualification scenarios after Coco Gauff punches her ticket to the Final 4
Coco Gauff became the first player to seal her semifinal spot from the Orange Group at the WTA Finals 2024 with her 6-3, 6-4 win over defending champion Iga Swiatek. Jessica Pegula's chances of making it past the group stage came to an end after back-to-back losses. She has now withdrawn from the tournament and has been replaced by Daria Kasatkina.
Swiatek, along with Barbora Krejcikova, will aim to join Gauff as the second semifinalist from the group. The Pole will take on Kasatkina on Thursday (November 7) and needs a win to remain in contention. However, even a victory won't suffice for her, as she is also dependent on the outcome of the other group's tie.
Swiatek would need Gauff to beat Krejcikova as well, and only then would she advance to the last four. The American will be keen to win despite making the cut, as a victory would help her top the group. This would pit her against Zheng Qinwen in the semifinals, against whom she has a winning record, rather than Aryna Sabalenka, who has beaten her twice this year.
Krejcikova has more wiggle room and could advance further even if she loses to Gauff, provided Kasatkina manages to upset Swiatek as well. If the Czech wins her match in straight sets and the Pole wins her match as well, then she will top the group.
Swiatek would miss out on qualifying for the semifinals even with a win because of the tie-breaker rules. In the case of two-player ties, the head-to-head is considered. In a three-way tie, the determining factor is the percentage of sets won, and if they remain tied even after that, then the percentage of games won.
Based on this criteria, Swiatek would be on the back foot if Krejcikova wins her match, especially in straight sets. If she doesn't make the last four, then this would mark yet another edition of the WTA Finals where a player couldn't defend their title.
Serena Williams was the last player to defend her WTA Finals title
Serena Williams remains the last player to have mounted a successful title defense at the WTA Finals when she won her third straight title in 2014 and her fifth overall. Ten years down the line, no other player has been able to claim back-to-back titles.
Williams opted not to defend her title in 2015, and Agnieszka Radwanska won the WTA Finals that year. She bowed out in the semifinals in 2016, and that year's edition was won by Dominika Cibulkova, who didn't even qualify the next year. Caroline Wozniacki triumphed in 2017 and bowed out in the round-robin stage during her title defense the next year.
Elina Svitolina came out on top in 2018 and almost defended her title as well but lost to Ashleigh Barty in the final. The Australian, meanwhile, didn't defend her title when the next edition was held in 2021. Garbine Muguruza won that year and didn't make the cut in 2022, and Caroline Garcia emerged victorious that year.
Garcia didn't qualify for the WTA Finals in 2023, and the tournament ended with Iga Swiatek's coronation as the champion. She still has a shot at defending her title, so there's a possibility that she will break the trend.