Wuhan Open 2024 Draw: Aryna Sabalenka's projected path to the final ft. possible SF with Coco Gauff
Aryna Sabalenka enters the 2024 Wuhan Open as the two-time defending champion, having claimed the title in 2018 and 2019 and not having lost a single match at the venue. She will lead the field once again after World No. 1 Iga Swiatek withdrew due to fatigue.
Sabalenka is in the midst of her best season on tour. She began the year by defending her Australian Open title and later secured her second major at the US Open. She also claimed the Cincinnati crown, which contributed to her incredibly successful North American hardcourt swing that saw her finish on a 12-match unbeaten run.
Last week in Beijing, Sabalenka started strong with two routine victories, but her 15-match winning streak was snapped by Karolina Muchova in a thrilling quarterfinal. She had two set points in the opening set and led by a break twice in the decider, but ultimately fell 7-6(5), 2-6, 6-4 after a grueling 2 hours and 46 minutes.
As the Belarusian prepares for a comeback in Wuhan—now upgraded to a WTA 1000 event after a five-year hiatus—here’s a look at her potential path to the final.
Aryna Sabalenka's R1 opponent - Bye
Sabalenka and all the other top 8 seeds will receive first-round byes in the 56 women's playing field in Wuhan this week.
Aryna Sabalenka's probable 2R opponent - Katerina Siniakova
Sabalenka could face world No. 37 Katerina Siniakova in the second round, with the latter expected to advance past Alex Eala in the first round.
Siniakova enters the Wuhan Open with a 30-21 record this season, highlighted by a semifinal run in Cleveland and strong showings on grass in Berlin and Bad Homburg. She took part at the China Open last, where she was defeated by Yulia Starodubtsewa in the first round.
Sabalenka leads the head-to-head 1-0, having defeated Siniakova in three sets in their only previous meeting way back in 2020. Based on the current form, Sabalenka is favored to win this matchup.
Aryna Sabalenka's probable 3R opponent - Donna Vekic
Donna Vekic, the 15th seed, could be Sabalenka's third-round opponent at the Wuhan Open. The Croatian has had an impressive year, highlighted by winning the silver medal at the Olympics.
She holds a 26-18 match record thanks to a runner-up finish in Bad Homburg and a career-best Gran Slam result with a semifinal appearance at Wimbledon. Vekic has, however, struggled in WTA 1000 events this year, winning just 5 of 13 matches.
Despite this, she did manage to defeat Sabalenka in their most recent meeting in Dubai and also lead their overall head-to-head 6-2, making her a strong candidate for another upset.
Aryna Sabalenka's probable QF opponent - Emma Navarro
Emma Navarro could potentially face Aryna Sabalenka in the quarterfinals if they navigate their sections of the draw. The American will face tough competition with possible matchups against Magdalena Frech, Madison Keys, and Beatriz Haddad Maia leading up to the last eight.
Navarro has had an outstanding season so far, capturing her first WTA title, reaching the semifinals at her home Slam, the US Open, and breaking into the top 10 with a career-high ranking of No. 8. Her form recently, however, has dipped with a first-round exit at the China Open and a straight-sets loss to Anna Blinkova in the Hong Kong 125 Open quarterfinals earlier this week.
Sabalenka leads Navarro 2-1 In their head-to-head, winning their most recent meeting in the US Open semifinals. Navarro, however, defeated Sabalenka earlier this year on hard courts at Indian Wells.
In what promises to be an exciting encounter, Sabalenka will be the favorite to come out on top given her superior form off late, particularly on the hardcourts.
Aryna Sabalenka's probable SF opponent - Coco Gauff
Sabalenka could face Coco Gauff in a highly anticipated semifinal clash at the 2024 Wuhan Open, which promises to be one of the event's biggest matchups.
Gauff, by her lofty standards, has had a disappointing season, collecting a 44-14 match record and just one title in Auckland at the start of the year. Her first half of the season was good, but her struggles in the second half have been evident. She's dropped out of the top 3 in the rankings to No. 6 and also failed to defend her titles at both Cincinnati and the US Open, exiting in the early rounds.
Gauff, however, seems to have rediscovered her form in China this week, showing glimpses of her best tennis. She has been in excellent shape and is set to face Karolina Muchova in the final, signaling a return to top form ahead of Wuhan.
Aryna Sabalenka's probable final opponent - Jessica Pegula
Sabalenka and Jessica Pegula could face each other for the third time this year, with all their previous meetings in 2024 taking place in finals.
Pegula has had an impressive season, compiling a 35-11 match record and winning titles in Berlin and Toronto. She also reached her first Grand Slam final at the US Open, defeating Iga Swiatek en route before succumbing to Sabalenka. In her most recent outing at the China Open, Pegula was eliminated by Paula Badosa in a late-night match that ended at 3 a.m.
Sabalenka leads their head-to-head 6-2, including a 3-2 advantage on hard courts. With the Belarusian's powerful serve posing a challenge, Pegula will need to adjust her strategy if she hopes to turn the tide in their rivalry.