The fight for the No. 1 ranking heats up: What Djokovic needs to do to dethrone Nadal

Novak Djokovic or Rafael Nadal: who will be the World no. 1 at the end of the claycourt season?

Looking at the ATP World Tour rankings as on Monday, the 21st of April 2014, we can see the following situation at the top:

1. Rafael Nadal (ESP) 13,310

2. Novak Djokovic (SRB) 11,040

What after the Australian Open seemed a gap impossible for Djokovic to close, has now been reduced to a total of 2,270 points – that’s the margin by which Nadal currently holds the World No. 1 spot. Heading into the heart of the claycourt season however, things for seem primed to get even more complicated for the Spaniard.

Starting from this week Nadal has the following points to defend:

• Barcelona: Winner, 500 points
• Madrid: Winner, 1000 points
• Rome: Winner, 1000 points
• French Open: Winner, 2000 points
TOTAL: 4,500 points

On the other hand, Djokovic will have to defend the following points:

• Madrid: 2nd round, 10 points
• Rome: Quarterfinals, 180 points
• French Open: Semifinals, 720 points
TOTAL: 910 points

There are a lot of different outcomes that could arise from this situation. For example, if Djokovic beats Nadal in the final of the French Open in June, the Spaniard loses 800 points, Djokovic earns 1,280 points, and suddenly the gap reduces by 2,080 points in favour of the Serb. Thus, Novak would only need 190 points more to get back to World No. 1.

Indeed, if Djokovic were to win the French Open, completing his career Slam, he would only need to reach the semi-finals in Rome and win only one match in Madrid. All of this, without having to look at what Nadal’s doing, as the Spaniard will be obliged to win everything to stay on top.

In order for Nadal to stay on top he will need to collect at least 1,320 points more than Djokovic in the upcoming claycourt tournaments. And that will largely depend on whether Nadal wins the French Open. Not winning in Paris for Rafa might automatically mean not being World No. 1 (assuming Djokovic wins it in his stead). If Nadal fails to win Roland Garros, it would mean he has to collect 1,600 points more than the Serb on clay, and that would realistically be possible only if Djokovic doesn’t show up at all.

In my opinion, here is the most likely scenario that will unfold in the claycourt season:

• Barcelona: Nadal wins
• Madrid: Djokovic wins, beating Nadal in the final
• Rome: Nadal wins, beating Djokovic in the final
• French Open: Nadal wins, beating Djokovic in the final

And if all of this happens, Djokovic would be No. 1 by 20 points at the end of Roland Garros!

In short, we could be in for a shake-up at the top of the men’s rankings in the next couple of months.

Now is the time for Nadal to face Djokovic’s attack and hold the Serb off. Admittedly, the Spaniard will have nothing to defend at Wimbledon, where Novak has finals points to defend. But after that it will be time again for Nadal to be under attack, as he will have to defend the points collected when he won at Canada, Cincinnati and New York last year.

Finally, autumn will give a chance for the Spaniard to get back on top, as the Serb will have to defend all the points collected during his perfect end to 2013.

And what about Roger Federer? The Swiss and the rest of the players in the ATP are a lot of points far away from the top two. But if Roger were to win Wimbledon, then he could suddenly get back into the World No. 1 race.