Novak Djokovic at French Open 2025: New favorite now or is a Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz final inevitable?
Novak Djokovic did something unexpected in the French Open quarterfinal: beating Alexander Zverev. Some would say it was expected, but overwhelmingly there was a lot of doubt about whether the Serb was truly playing as great as it looked like before the Zverev showdown.
After all, Djokovic had a pretty comfortable draw and expectedly cakewalked through it. Zverev has given him some trouble in the past, most famously beating him in the Tokyo Olympics en route a gold medal run.
The German has also been one of the more consistent players at Roland Garros in the past few years, so many expected the 2024 finalist to put in another great effort.
Zverev did make a good start, taking an early break to win the opening set. However, Djokovic readjusted his tactics, and things would dramatically fall apart for Zverev.
The Serb served well the entire match, allowing him to be aggressive on his shots. He regularly outplayed Zverev in the crucial moments, even when the rallies were long. He employed drop shots perfectly to keep Zverev guessing and, of course, returned superbly, rarely allowing the German to establish an advantage through his serve.
The end result was Djokovic essentially winning three sets without any major problems, making Zverev look like a player who had no shot. And it truly was that way. He eventually didn’t have a shot at winning the match even though he had his chances.
Perhaps the best demonstrator of how the match went for Zverev was in the third set when he had a break chance to tie the set scorers, with Djokovic a few games away from the finish line.
What ensued was the ongest rally of the match, and Zverev had two smashes to win the point, with the first being the more consequential one. However, he played it so timidly that Djokovic found a way back into the rally and ended up winning. That was how Zverev essentially played for large swathes: too timid. Keep this detail in mind because we’re going to return to it again.
Is Djokovic is a title a favorite now?
Yes and no. On the one hand, the level Djokovic showed against Zverev was by far the best he’s played this year. That’s the type of level he needs to remain competitive against some of the best players in the world. Does that mean he’ll now go out there and smash Jannik Sinner in three sets?
It doesn’t because unlike Zverev, Sinner has a lot of decisiveness. When you break down how Zverev approached the match, it’s not really the way Sinner will approach. Even in the past Sinner didn’t really wait for Djokovic to control matches.
Sinner took control by force and left Djokovic essentially running after him and never quite catching up. He’s got more power than Zverev and enjoys playing a much more aggressive style than the German.
He also doesn’t lack the decisiveness that ruined Zverev, especially not in the big moments. So while Djokovic has gotten to a level where he can hope for some things against Jannik Sinner and then Carlos Alcaraz should he beat the Italian, it’s still likely not going to be enough.
The story of the match against Zverev is that the German underperformed. Yes, much of what went wrong for him was directly a consequence of things Djokovic did and Zverev simply not having any solutions.
He never overpowered the Serbian from the baseline, something Sinner is capable of and has done in the past. The conclusion is that ultimately the most likely final could still end up being between the No. 1-seeded Sinner and No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz.
Djokovic will have chances if he plays as as he did against Zverev, but he’s not going to be the favorite in this one. He’s still not the favorite to break up the most anticipated final of the last couple of years.
Even if he plays more impressively than he did he wouldn’t be the favorite because his performances earlier this year simply don’t inspire much confidence that he’s back. Djokovic looks like he’s back, but he’s had a really easy draw and a Zverev showing that was borderline pathetic.
The true test will be against Jannik Sinner and more notably against Carlos Alcaraz, who's expected to reach the final. Only then we’ll be able to declare that Djokovic is truly back. For now, things are encouraging for the Serb but not yet enough.