Paris Masters 2018 semifinal: Roger Federer vs Novak Djokovic, Preview and Prediction
At the business end of an exciting week of top-notch tennis, the last Masters of the 2018 ATP season has lined up a dream semi-final between the 20-time Grand Slam champion Roger Federer and the soon-to-be World No. 1, Novak Djokovic.
After the early disappointment of Rafael Nadal’s withdrawal through injury, the other two members of the Big 3 have more than made up for that loss through some scintillating performances of their own.
In his quarterfinal match, Djokovic secured his 21st straight win and 9th straight victory over a top-10 opponent by getting the better of Marin Cilic. He has lost just one of his last 31 matches. This has been an incredible run of domination reminiscent of his 2011 and 2016 halcyon days!
Who would have imagined such a turnaround in the fortunes of the Serbian after a staggeringly poor return from injury in early 2018? He seemed to lack both form and fitness, and lost a whopping eight matches in the first half of the season, including a shock defeat to Marco Cecchinato in French Open quarterfinal.
But since then, he has turned his season around and has looked the most dominant player in the world by a fair margin, even though he is still a couple of days away from officially reclaiming the No. 1 ranking. And by the looks of things, it is unlikely that he will relinquish that position in the foreseeable future.
But Djokovic's quarterfinal encounter with Cilic was not a straightforward one. He lost the first set 6-4, which ended his incredible 30-set winning streak. As expected, he did fight back to take the second, but it was he who was broken first in the decider.
Although he eventually managed to take the third set and with it his 21st straight win, his performance in the match was certainly below-par. He especially struggled with his serve, which was shaky at times - he committed five double faults and was broken twice in the match, including in the deciding set.
Djokovic did do well with his second serve when he got it in, winning 61% to Cilic’s poor return of just 39% second serve points won – possibly a major reason why the result eventually panned out the way it did. But if he has to progress further in his pursuit of a 33rd Masters title, Djokovic must up his game in the semifinal, where he meets Federer.
There were question marks on whether the Swiss Maestro would even play in this tournament, since it came close on the heels of his exhausting Swiss Indoors title-winning run. And even when he eventually confirmed his participation in the tournament, nobody was sure of how his 37-year-old body would hold up after so much of tennis the previous week.
But he has allayed all those apprehensions through a display of nearly flawless tennis this week. He has also been aided by the retirement of Milos Raonic from his second round match, which has allowed him more time for recovery.
All this means Federer has reached the semi-final stage after playing only two matches. He is well-rested and rounding into form at the right time, and there was no sign of rustiness in those two matches against Fabio Fognini and Kei Nishikori.
Federer's quarterfinal victory over Nishikori in straight sets was particularly significant, as the Japanese seems to be back to full fitness and was coming off a morale-boosting victory over the Vienna Open champion Kevin Anderson. Federer’s serve was simply outstanding in the match, where he won 97% of his first serve points, although he would want to improve on his first serve percentage in the semifinal.
Overall, Federer played a very good match over a top opponent. This victory over an in-form Nishikori, coupled with the manner of the win, would have given the Swiss a lot of confidence about his own game.
He will need all of that confidence in his semifinal match if he is to pull off a victory against the Serbian. Djokovic enjoys a 24-22 head-to-head record against him, and Federer has lost four of his last five matches in the rivalry.
After a slight hiccup in the quarterfinal, Djokovic is expected to be back at his very best in the next match. He would not like to mark his return to the No. 1 ranking with a loss to Federer, that's for sure. But he will not have it easy against a confident and in-form Federer, who is also motivated and in hot pursuit of a 100th career title.
This promises to be a close encounter. But if one goes by the more dominant form shown by the Serbian over a greater period of time this season, and keeping in mind their recent head-to-head record, it’s Djokovic who seems to have a slight edge over Federer.
Prediction: Djokovic to win in three sets