Paris Masters 2024: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Roberto Carballes Baena preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds, and pick
Match Details
Fixture: (10) Stefanos Tsitsipas vs (LL) Roberto Carballes Baena
Date: October 28, 2024
Tournament: Paris Masters 2024
Round: First Round (Round of 64)
Venue: Accor Arena, Paris, France
Category: ATP Masters 1000
Surface: Hard (Indoor)
Prize Money: $6,416,565
Live Telecast: US - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN
Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Roberto Carballes Baena preview
10th seed Stefanos Tsitsipas will take on lucky loser Roberto Carballes Baena in the first round of the Paris Masters 2024.
Tsitsipas could only go as far as the fourth round of the Australian Open this season, having made the final a year ago. He followed it up with a semifinal in Los Cabos, a quarterfinal in Acapulco, and a fourth-round showing at the Indian Wells Masters. He sprung back to life on clay and won the Monte-Carlo Masters for the third time in four years.
Tsitsipas also reached the final of the Barcelona Open, and the quarterfinals of the French Open, the Italian Open, and the Paris Olympics. He had a forgettable outing at Wimbledon and crashed out in the second round. He hasn't performed that well since the tour returned to play on hardcourts, with quarterfinal appearances at the European Open and the Swiss Indoors over the last two weeks being his best results.
Carballes Baena commenced his Paris Masters campaign with a 6-4, 7-5 win over home favorite Alexandre Muller in the first qualifier. He was up against Lorenzo Sonego for a spot in the main draw, and lost to him 6-3, 7-6 (4). However, Felix Auger-Aliassime's withdrawal opened up a lucky loser spot, which went to him in the end.
Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Roberto Carballes Baena head-to-head
Tsitsipas leads Carballes Baena 3-0 in the head-to-head. He won their previous meeting at this year's Barcelona Open in straight sets.
Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Roberto Carballes Baena odds
(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)
Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Roberto Carballes Baena prediction
Tsitsipas seems to have regressed this year by a fair margin, and hasn't been a credible threat outside of clay. His return game is dire against top players, and he didn't even create a single break point opportunity in his last two losses. His backhand is also being consistently exploited by his opposition.
With a perfect winning record against Carballes Baena, Tsitsipas will at least aim to make a winning start here. All three of their previous matches were on clay, a surface both players are quite partial to. He will also be favored to win due to the Spaniard's poor record against top players.
Carballes Baena has a 0-11 record against top 20 players this season, and has won only two sets across all of those matches. Additionally, he has a 4-38 career record against players ranked that high as well. Given his struggles against quality players, Tsitsipas should be able to continue his unbeaten run against the Spaniard.
Pick: Stefanos Tsitsipas to win in straight sets.