Paris Olympics 2024 Draw: Rafael Nadal's projected path to the final ft. likely blockbuster R2 clash with Novak Djokovic and SF with Alexander Zverev
Rafael Nadal's road to a second gold medal is going to be a tough one as the draw for the men's singles event at the Paris Olympics was revealed on Thursday, July 25. The Spaniard has tasted success at the quadrennial games on two different occasions.
He won the gold medal in singles at the Beijing Olympics in 2008, and captured the gold medal in doubles at the Rio Olympics in 2016. In order to prepare for the Paris Olympics, Nadal competed in the Swedish Open in Bastad, where he made the final, and lost to Nuno Borges.
The clay courts of Roland Garros will host the tennis events at the Paris Olympics. Nadal knows a thing or two about doing well here, having won 14 of his 22 Major titles at the venue.
On that note, here's a look at the players Nadal will have to go through to reach the final at the Paris Olympics:
R1 opponent - Marton Fucsovics
Nadal will begin his Paris Olympics campaign against Marton Fucsovics. Despite playing fewer tournaments than his opponent this year, the Spaniard has the same number of wins as him.
However, Fucsovics did win a title on clay this year, so he could give the former World No. 1 a tough time. However, that's easier said than done, especially at Roland Garros, where the 38-year-old has only four losses to his name, against 112 wins. Expect the King of Clay to make a winning start here.
Potential R2 opponent - Novak Djokovic
Nadal and Djokovic could reignite their rivalry after more than two years should they meet in the second round here. Their previous encounter took place at the 2022 French Open, which went the Spaniard's way.
Their overall head-to-head leans 30-29 in Djokovic's favor. The Serb hasn't been at his best this season, though he did reach the Wimbledon final a few weeks ago. He seemed to be progressing fine at the French Open as well, until an injury forced him to abandon his campaign before his quarterfinal clash.
Djokovic is more match-fit compared to his long-time rival, which tilts the contest in his favor. However, if there's anyone who can counter the Serb, it's Nadal. The latter has won three of their last four matches, all of which were on clay.
Potential R3 opponent - Arthur Fils
The young Fils recently captured the biggest title of his career at the Hamburg European Open. He beat Alexander Zverev in the final, and reached a new career high ranking of No. 20.
Fils also made the fourth-round of Wimbledon. However, he hasn't been past the first hurdle at Roland Garros. Given his form, one can expect him to overturn that result, though one can't count on him to outplay Nadal if they meet at this stage.
Should Fils falter early yet again, the Spaniard could instead bump into Italian youngster Matteo Arnaldi, or veteran Milos Roanic, who's in the midst of his own comeback. The 38-year-old has only crossed paths against the Canadian prior to this, and leads their head-to-head 8-2.
Potential QF opponent - Stefanos Tsitsipas
Tsitsipas has accumulated most of his Major victories at the French Open. He reached the last eight at the venue this year, and was a runner-up in 2022 as well. Given his consistency in Paris, and overall results on clay, he's likely to be Nadal's quarterfinal adversary.
The Spaniard leads his younger rival 7-2 in the head-to-head. The former beat the latter in three sets in their most recent encounter, which took place in the final of the Barcelona Open three years ago. The Greek has the potential to one-up the 22-time Major champion, though his form this year suggests otherwise.
Potential SF opponent - Alexander Zverev
Nadal could meet defending champion Zverev in the semifinals. The latter finished as the runner-up at this year's French Open, and ousted him in the first round as well.
Zverev is a huge threat on clay, and having beaten the Spaniard on his own turf a few weeks ago, he knows what it takes to get the job done. The German could easily repeat what he did last month and take out his older rival yet again.
Potential Final opponent - Carlos Alcaraz/Casper Ruud
Either Alcaraz or Ruud could await Nadal in the gold medal playoff match. His younger compatriot is on a roll as he recently won Wimbledon, and the French Open prior to that.
Ruud has been one of the season's most consistent performers, and has reached two finals at Roland Garros in the past, and the semifinals this year. Nadal will prefer to play against him as well, having won both of their prior encounters.
The 38-year-old also leads Alcaraz 2-1 in their rivalry, though his fellow countryman could offer him more resistance should they meet in the final. Nadal's path to the final is quite difficult, especially since he has to contend with Djokovic so early on. However, a final hurrah at the venue where he has dominated for so long would certainly be a fitting farewell in his final Olympics.