Paris Olympics 2024: Men's singles draw analysis, preview and prediction ft. likely Novak Djokovic-Rafael Nadal R2 clash, Carlos Alcaraz-Tommy Paul QF
The Paris Olympics 2024 will see some of the best men's tennis players battle it out from July 27 to August 4 for a shot at the gold medal. They'll be sliding on the red dirt of Roland Garros once again as it is the venue for tennis at the Olympics.
World No. 1 Jannik Sinner had to withdraw at the last minute due to tonsillitis. Three-time Major champion Andy Murray, who's competing in the final tournament of his career, announced that he will partake only in doubles and pulled out of singles.
While their withdrawals dented the star power by a fair margin, there are plenty of big names in the mix. 24-time Major champion Novak Djokovic leads the field as the top seed, with Carlos Alcaraz up next as the second seed. Rafael Nadal is also in the fray, along with most of the other top players.
The intensity at the Olympics remains unmatched, and this year promises to be no different. On that note, here's a look at how the men's singles draw could unfold at the Paris Olympics:
First Quarter: Novak Djokovic vying to capture the elusive gold medal
Seeded players: (1) Novak Djokovic, (8) Stefanos Tsitsipas, (12) Sebastian Baez, and (14) Arthur Fils
Expected quarterfinal: Novak Djokovic vs Stefanos Tsitispas
Dark horse: Matteo Arnaldi
Novak Djokovic has won every big title in tennis but an Olympic gold medal has remained beyond his reach so far. He won the bronze medal at the Beijing Olympics in 2008, and came in fourth place when the games were held in London and Tokyo.
This year hasn't been the best for the Serb, having dealt with injuries and issues with form. However, he finished as the runner-up at Wimbledon just weeks after undergoing knee surgery. He seems to be inching back to his best, and could do some damage at the Paris Olympics.
Djokovic has an easy opener as he will take on doubles specialist Matthew Ebden in the first round. However, he could face his long-time rival Rafael Nadal in the second round. The Spaniard will take on Marton Fucsovics in the first round.
With the two titans of the sport colliding so early, whoever makes it through that clash is likely to make it deep. Djokovic has the edge here, though one cannot count out Nadal, especially at Roland Garros. The winner is likely to meet Arthur Fils in the third round.
Stefanos Tsitsipas is the next highest seed in this quarter, and his path to the last eight is rather smooth. Despite his inconsistent results this year, he should be able to make it to the quarterfinals, though he won't be backed to make it further than that.
Predicted quarterfinal: Novak Djokovic def. Stefanos Tsitsipas
Second Quarter: Alexander Zverev aiming to win back-to-back gold medals
Seeded players: (3) Alexander Zverev, (7) Taylor Fritz, (11) Lorenzo Musetti, and (16) Nicolas Jarry
Expected quarterfinal: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz
Dark horse: Jack Draper
Alexander Zverev had a successful outing on clay this season, winning the Italian Open and reaching the final of the French Open. He bagged the gold medal at the Tokyo Olympics, and will try to become only the second player after Murray to win consecutive gold medals in singles at the Olympics.
Zverev will face Jaume Munar in the first round, with either Tomas Machac or Zhang Zhizhen awaiting him in the second round. A potential third-round duel with Stan Wawrinka beckons him after that. The German will be the favorite in all three of his encounters.
Taylor Fritz had the best clay season of his career this year. However, his draw at the Paris Olympics is quite tricky. He will face Alexander Bublik in the first round, potentially Jack Draper in the second round, followed by a likely third-round showdown with Lorenzo Musetti.
Even a minor misstep could result in Fritz's early elimination from the Paris Olympics. Musetti seems to be a safe bet to make it through this section given his form, though he won't be favored to get the better of Zverev in the quarterfinals.
Predicted quarterfinal: Alexander Zverev def. Lorenzo Musetti
Third Quarter: Daniil Medvedev on the hunt for his first ever medal at the Paris Olympics
Seeded players: (4) Daniil Medvedev, (6) Casper Ruud, (10) Ugo Humbert, and (13) Felix Auger-Aliassime
Expected quarterfinal: Daniil Medvedev vs Casper Ruud
Dark horse: Fabian Marozsan
Daniil Medvedev won't represent Russia at the Paris Olympics as the athletes from Russia and Belarus have to compete as Individual Neutral Athletes due to the ongoing Ukraine-Russia conflict. Competing in his second Olympics, the former World No. 1 will aim to win a medal this time.
Medvedev's record at the Roland Garros is streaky but he has improved a lot in recent years, and made the fourth round this time. He will face Rinky Hijikata in the opening round, and could meet Maximilian Marterer after that. Felix Auger-Aliassime could prove to be a challenge in the third round but he has been rather inconsistent this year.
Given Medvedev's opponents, he will be the favorite to reach the quarterfinals, where he could be up against Casper Ruud. The Norwegian has reached a couple of finals in Paris before, and made the semifinals this year. Given his love for clay, he will be favored to beat the Russian if they meet in the quarterfinals.
Ruud's biggest threat to reaching the last eight could come in the form of Fabian Marozsan, who beat him last year at the Shanghai Masters. However, given the Norwegian's results on clay, a repeat seems unlikely.
Predicted quarterfinal: Casper Ruud def. Daniil Medvedev
Fourth Quarter: Carlos Alcaraz hoping to shine on his Olympic debut
Seeded players: (2) Carlos Alcaraz, (5) Alex de Minaur, (9) Tommy Paul, and (15) Alejandro Tabilo
Expected quarterfinal: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex de Minaur
Dark horse: Jan-Lennard Struff
Having won the French Open and Wimbledon this year, Carlos Alcaraz will aim to continue his stellar run of form. The young Spaniard will be competing in the Olympics for the first time.
Alcaraz will begin his campaign at the Paris Olympics against Hady Habib, with a potential second-round bout against Cameron Norrie after that. Either Alejandro Tabilo or Tomas Martin Etcheverry could meet him in the third round. The Spaniard's form makes him the favorite to beat all of these players.
Alex de Minaur was handed a tough opener as he was drawn against Jan-Lennard Struff in the first round. Should he make it past him, he could take on either Corentin Moutet or Sumit Nagal in the second round. Another stern test awaits him in the third round, where Tommy Paul is likely to be his opponent.
The match between Paul and de Minaur could go either way. However, should the American come out on top, he has a better shot at giving Alcaraz a tough time. However, clay isn't his preferred surface, so it's unlikely he gets past the Australian in the first place.
Predicted quarterfinal: Carlos Alcaraz def. Alex de Minaur
Predictions for the semifinals
Novak Djokovic def. Alexander Zverev
Carlos Alcaraz def. Casper Ruud
Prediction for the final
Novak Djokovic def. Carlos Alcaraz