Barclays ATP World Tour Finals: Preview and predictions

The contenders

As the annual season-ending tournament of ATP circuit kicks off in O2 arena in London in less than a week, here is an all-you-need-to-know preview of the tournament – the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals (WTF).

Year in review

2014 was one hell of a roller-coaster year for men’s tennis a.k.a. the ATP World Tour, and we are left with all but one final tournament, which has been popularized as the #FinalShowdown. The year saw two brand new Grand Slam champions in Stan (The Man) Wawrinka at the Australian Open and Marin Cilic at the US Open. But that did not mean that the top guys were not winning tournaments, as Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal (when fit) and Roger Federer continued their dominance by performing and winning tournaments with week-in, week-out consistency.

Going into the WTF, Djokovic (Indian Wells, Miami, Rome, Wimbledon, Beijing, Paris-Bercy) leads the pack with a season-best six titles. Federer (Dubai, Halle, Cincinnati, Shanghai, Basel) follows with a 5-5 win-loss record in tour-level finals in 2014.

The field

Coming into the Bercy tournament, three WTF spots were up for grabs. Milos Raonic, with a stellar run to the final, along with Kei Nishikori and Tomas Berdych booked the tickets to London as David Ferrer narrowly missed out; the Spaniard will travel to London as an alternate along with Feliciano Lopez. The reason why Lopez is travelling to London despite finishing 14th in the ‘Race’ is that Grigor Dimitrov refused to appear as an alternate, for which he has received much criticism.

There will be three first-timers at the O2 arena this year, as Nishikori, Raonic and Cilic will make their WTF debuts. Wawrinka, meanwhile, will be making his second trip to London after a semifinal showing in 2013. 

Along with these men, the ‘veterans’ continued their consistent showings, with Federer set to make his 13th consecutive appearance at the season-ending finale along with Djokovic (8th), Andy Murray (6th, missed out in 2013) and Berdych (5th). Nadal misses out due to appendicitis; he had surgery for that on 3rd November, and it was successful. 

As Josh Meiseles pointed out, the streak of 14 years with a Spaniard or Argentine competing in the WTF has been snapped this year.

The WTF groups

Unlike earlier years, the ATP has wisely tweaked its schedule and inserted a one-week gap between the Paris Masters and the WTF. This gives the players (including the Paris finalists) a much-needed and equal break to be in shape for the finale.

As the WTF groups were rolled out yesterday, all eyes were on where Wawrinka and Murray would be drawn. As it turns out, the Swiss fans can heave a sigh of relief as Wawrinka avoided being drawn in Federer’s group.

The groups are as follows:

Group A: Novak Djokovic (1), Stan Wawrinka (3), Tomas Berdych (6), Marin Cilic (8).

Group B: Roger Federer (2), Kei Nishikori (4), Andy Murray (5), Milos Raonic (7).

Although Group A features three out of the four Grand Slam champions of 2014, it is Group B which seems to be tougher and more competitive. Djokovic holds an incredible 41-5 H2H record vs the rest of the members of Group A, while the same for Federer is a moderate 19-15.

Year-end No. 1 scenarios

The number of people who thought at the start of 2014 that Federer could challenge for the year end #1 ranking after a dismal 2013, when he was ranked eighth in the world, was probably less than the number of kids Federer has. But here we are, with Federer having had a more than decent shot at No. 1 before the Paris Masters.

However, a quarterfinal loss to Raonic coupled with Djokovic going on to win the title has hampered Federer’s chances, and he will now require some assistance from his fellow players if he wants to win that crown and tie Pete Sampras’s record of 6 year-end No. 1 finishes.

The possible scenarios are illustrated in tabular format as follows: 

Possible Year-end No.1 scenarios.

As described in the above image, the respective objectives for Djokovic and Federer are as follows:

• Djokovic needs to win all three round robin matches to seal his year-end No.1 ranking irrespective of what Federer does.
• Federer needs to: 1) win the tournament, 2) hope that Djokovic does not go beyond semifinal stage, 3) hope that Djokovic doesn’t win more than two matches in round robin play AND 4) win the two singles rubbers in Davis Cup to ensure a Switzerland victory.

Sounds like a mountain to climb for Roger, right? It is. Given his form, it is likely that Djokovic will win his three RR matches and seal the year end #1 for the third time in four years.

Predictions

After looking at the groups, my picks for the tournament are:

Group A: 

1. Novak Djokovic
2. Tomas Berdych
3. Stan Wawrinka
4. Marin Cilic

Group B: 

1. Roger Federer
2. Kei Nishikori
3. Andy Murray
4. Milos Raonic

Semifinals:

1. Novak Djokovic d. Kei Nishikori
2. Roger Federer d. Tomas Berdych

Final: Roger Federer d. Novak Djokovic

Summary: Djokovic and Federer will continue their dominance. Wawrinka will choke. Cilic, Raonic will be overwhelmed by their debuts. Nishikori will show character to reach the semis.

All in all, stage is set to bid adieu to the entertaining and drama-filled year of 2014. But I bet that the ‘goodbye’ will have plenty of drama as well. Let the games begin!