Miami Masters final preview: Potentially re-jigging the Nadal-Djokovic rivalry

Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic will resume their legendary rivalry in the final of the 2014 Sony Open at Miami

The Rafael Nadal-Novak Djokovic rivalry is one that takes new twists every time it plays out. It’s never been easy – despite the many similarities in their style of play – to predict a clear winner among the two, and their head-to-head reflects as much.

Of the 39 matches played out between them so far, while Rafa holds the upper hand with 22 wins, it’s at best a slender advantage, with Djokovic seemingly making almost immediate reparations every time he suffers a loss at the Spaniard’s hands. Their 40th meeting, in the final of the Sony Open today – their first match this season – thus becomes an even more intriguing prospect. Not only because of the significance of the title to each player, but also because of what it would mean for the direction of the rivalry.

Strengths

Rafael Nadal: The top seed hasn’t been put to the test yet in this tournament. His initial rounds leading to the final were one-sided affairs that saw him effortlessly rout his opponents. Rafa has been playing ‘in the zone’, and this is the biggest advantage that he will be carrying into the final. The minor setback that Alexandr Dolgopolov caused to his stride at Indian Wells seems to have brought about a keener focus in the Spaniard which, when complemented with his shot-making, gives a more lethal edge to his game. He has used his inside-out and down-the-line forehands as major weapons against Djokovic in the past, and if he can get those shots going early, he can impose his will on the proceedings.

There seem to be no hesitancies in Rafa’s game, and his health issues seem to be out of the picture for the moment. Fitness-wise, he seems perfectly capable of withstanding the Miami heat and humidity, and Djokovic’s punishing groundstrokes, to emerge as the last man standing on the court.

Novak Djokovic: Two finals in two consecutive tournaments, and Djokovic has gone back to being the man in prime focus. The win against Roger Federer at Indian Wells coming at the most appropriate time for him, Djokovic hasn’t wasted any time in building upon that success. The clinical nature of Djokovic’s game has re-asserted itself and he has made full utilisation of it to power his way past his opponents, despite his comparatively tricky draw.

Djokovic has traditionally used his solid two-handed backhand to neutralize Nadal’s crosscourt forehand, and if that shot, especially the down-the-line version of it, is working, he’d be able to gain the ascendancy in the rallies.

His shots reflect his confidence and have been timed to perfection all throughout the course of the tournament. But the most important thing for Djokovic is that he’s been able to exploit the playing conditions thoroughly. He also has the advantage of winning this event thrice previously – including completing the prestigious Indian Wells and Miami double in 2011 – which is something that Rafa lacks in his otherwise complete professional repertoire. Djokovic will look to use this winning experience to replicate the feat once again, whilst also capturing his second Masters title for the season.

Weaknesses

Considering the similarities in their game, it will be very important for either player to not revert to playing an overly defensive game, and instead push the other out of his comfort zone by being more offensive. Rafa especially needs to be wary about Djokovic’s spilt-second switching game that easily allows him to pull the trigger on his opponent by luring him into complacency. So it becomes even more imperative for the Spaniard that he doesn’t end up entering into a slugfest of groundstrokes against Djokovic.

On a cheekier note, for Djokovic, it will do him good to keep a distance between the net and himself whilst going for putaway winners. He may have got a reprieve in his quarterfinal against Murray but he may as well remember the 2013 French Open semi-final that saw him get distracted after colliding with the net, in the decisive fifth set.

Key Points

Unlike Roger Federer whose game presents quite obvious loopholes for Rafa to exploit, Djokovic’s game is far more impenetrable. Moreover, the last time that they met – in the World Tour Finals last November – it was Djokovic who ended up dominating Nadal despite the latter’s supremacy through the large part of the season. Based on that match alone, Djokovic seems to be a slight favourite to win the event.

Then again the match will also depend largely on how both of them manage to hold on to their nerves, especially considering that neither of them got to play in the semi-finals. As disappointing as Berdych’s and Nishikori’s walkovers were to the fans, such happenings also tend to affect the concentration of the remaining players in the field. Thus it will be quite essential for both players to hold on to their composure so as to take better control over the match proceedings and thereby take command over the other.

Prediction

Novak Djokovic to lift his fourth Sony Open singles title and his second Indian Wells-Miami double in three sets