Rio Open 2022: Men's singles draw analysis, preview & prediction
The 2022 Rio Open, to be held from February 14-20, is one of four ATP events taking place this week. The tournament is being held for the first time since 2020, as it couldn't be conducted last year due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
The ATP 500 event will feature current and former top-10 players, rising stars and tour veterans in a competitive draw. 2022 Australian Open semifinalist Matteo Berrettini is the top seed at the tournament.
World No. 8 Casper Ruud is seeded second. 2018 champion Diego Schwartzman and former Rio Open runner-up Pablo Carreno Busta round out the top four seeds. Defending champion Cristian Garin is the fifth seed. Juan Martin del Potro was initially set to compete in Rio, but withdrew from the tournament.
This is the only ATP 500 tournament on the South American clay swing and players will be eager to perform at their best. On that note, here's an in-depth look at how the draw might unfold:
Top half: Matteo Berrettini and Carlos Alcaraz on course for another showdown
Seeded players: (1) Matteo Berrettini, (4) Pablo Carreno Busta, (5) Cristian Garin and (7) Carlos Alcaraz.
Expected semifinal: Matteo Berrettini vs Pablo Carreno Busta
Dark horse: Fabio Fognini
Analysis: Matteo Berrettini enters the 2022 Rio Open on the heels of a semi-final showing at the Australian Open, where he lost to eventual winner Rafael Nadal. In doing so, he became the first male born in the 1990s to reach at least the quarterfinals of all four Majors. The top seed has received a first-round bye, after which he'll take on either Thiago Monteiro or a qualifier in the second round.
Carlos Alcaraz will square off against compatriot Jaume Munar in the opening round, followed by either Federico Delbonis or a qualifier in the next round. The teenager will be favored to win both matches to set up a quarterfinal showdown with Berrettini. The duo faced off in an epic five-set battle at the Australian Open a few weeks ago, with the Italian winning their third-round encounter.
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Pablo Carreno Busta will also start his Rio Open campaign with a first-round bye. In the second round, he'll take on either former finalist Fabio Fognini or Facundo Bagnis. Fognini made the quarterfinals of the Argentina Open last week and could challenge the fourth seed for a spot in the last eight. However, Carreno Busta's 7-1 record against the Italian would make him the favorite if they do meet.
Defending champion Cristian Garin has had a disappointing season so far, winning just three matches. No player has defended their Rio Open title in the past or even made consecutive finals. Considering Garin's form, it's tough to see him making a deep run here.
Garin commences his title defense against Federico Coria. The winner of that match will take on either Fernando Verdasco or Dusan Lajovic. This is an opportunity for all four players to score some big wins and ranking points to reach the quarterfinals.
Semifinal prediction: Matteo Berrettini vs Pablo Carreno Busta
ATP500 Rio Open singles draw https://t.co/VfOm9zexld
Bottom half: Casper Ruud and Diego Schwartzman are the favorites to reach the Rio Open semifinals
Seeded players: (2) Casper Ruud, (3) Diego Schwartzman, (6) Lorenzo Sonego and (8) Albert Ramos-Vinolas
Expected semifinal: Casper Ruud vs Diego Schwartzman
Dark horse: Laslo Djere
Analysis: Casper Ruud started his 2022 season by winning two of his three group matches at the ATP Cup. Prior to the Australian Open, he injured himself and had to withdraw from the tournament. Upon his comeback at the Argentina Open, he reached the final, where he'll take on Diego Schwartzman for the title.
Ruud has quickly made a name for himself as an excellent clay court player but has only managed to reach the final of ATP 250 events. The second seed will be eager to change that stat. After a first-round bye at the Rio Open, he'll take on either Benoit Paire or Francisco Cerundolo in the second round. The World No. 8 will be the favorite to win and reach the quarterfinals.
Lorenzo Sonego, semifinalist at last week's Argentina Open, faces former Rio Open champion Laslo Djere in the opening round. The Italian is expected to win based on current form, but an inspired performance from his opponent could lead to an early exit for the sixth seed. The winner faces either Felipe Meligeni Alves or a qualifier in the next round for a quarterfinal spot, where Ruud is likely to be their opponent.
After an up-and-down start to the season, Diego Schwartzman has found his groove during the South American clay swing. After a second-round exit from the Australian Open, he reached the semifinals of the Cordoba Open and faces Ruud for the Argentina Open title.
Schwartzman won the Rio Open in 2018. This year, following a bye in the opening round, he'll face either wildcard Shang Juncheng or Pedro Martinez in the second round. The Chinese youngster will be making his ATP main draw debut following Juan Martin del Potro's withdrawal, though it's tough to see either him or Martinez moving past the third seed to reach the quarterfinals.
Albert Ramos-Vinolas won the Cordoba Open, but made a first-round exit from the Argentina Open the following week. At the Rio Open, he faces a qualifier in the first round. The winner will take on either former champion Pablo Cuevas or Pablo Andujar in the second round.
Based on current form, Ramos-Vinolas and Andujar look the most likely to reach the last eight, where Schwartzman awaits.
Semifinal prediction: Casper Ruud vs Diego Schwartzman
Prediction for the final: Matteo Berrettini def. Casper Ruud
Also Check Out: Rio Open Schedule 2022