The wildcard games: Can Federer's decision to play Monte Carlo set the tone for something bigger?

Roger Federer showing off his backhand on clay

For almost a decade now, the claycourt season in the men’s tennis circuit has been all about Rafael Nadal and his supremacy. You can call it a kind of singular inevitability that he has forged with a series of destructive performances, or some kind of providential imperviousness that allows him to be so dominant on the surface. Either way, there’s no denying the one obvious, unshakeable truth about the clay swing: no one has been able to surmount a consistent challenge to the Spaniard and derail him from making the clay season his personal fiefdom.

In 2013, however, Novak Djokovic came rather close to ending Rafa’s near-perfect run on clay, first by defeating Rafael Nadal for the first time in nine years at the Monte Carlo Masters, and then by almost usurping his throne at Roland Garros, before the infamous net incident put paid to his victory prospects. Those two showings succeeded in marking Djokovic as a firm contender to some day possibly remove Rafa from his comfortable perch on clay. But they also brought back some attention onto Roger Federer, who at the start of Rafa’s career played the role that Djokovic is currently playing: as the man dogging the Spaniard’s heels and looking to substantiate his otherwise complete professional portfolio.

In comparison to Rafa, whose prowess on clay seems to get sharper with each passing season, Federer’s peak on the surface seems to have passed with his victory at the 2009 French Open. Despite the fact that after that victory he’s made it to a few finals on clay court events – including the French Open in 2011 – and even won a Masters event played on the surface – at the 2012 Madrid Masters – Federer has of late seemed quite discomfited with a certain awkwardness shrouding his game on dirt, especially the high ball directed to his backhand.

Last year, there was the unwanted encumbrance of injuries flaring up at odd intervals that prevented Federer from playing his natural game – especially on clay. But so far this year, all seems to be well in terms of his health, and his performances too have reflected his quintessential sang-froid. He leads the ATP in number of matches won this year, and he’s managed to regain his place in the top four yet again, even as other players have struggled to maintain their rhythm.

Going into the clay season, all this seems to augur well for the Swiss, at least in theory. Practically though, it could be a different ball game considering the aforementioned liabilities of Federer’s game on clay. And though he never lets anything out of the bag as far as his professional decisions are concerned, one can’t help but wonder whether his decision to take a wild-card at the Monte Carlo Masters wasn’t prompted by a need to shrug off the inexplicable sluggishness hampering his claycourt game lately.

The last time that Federer took a wild-card at the Monte Carlo Masters was in 2009. He made it to the third round of the event, before losing to his countryman Stanislas Wawrinka in straight sets – 5-7, 5-7. But 2009 was also THE year for Federer as far as hitting his peak on clay is concerned. He went to win Madrid that year, in its first year as a clay court Masters event (it was previously an indoor hardcourt tournament), and a few weeks later, won his maiden French Open title.

In the ensuing years however, Federer opted out of the Monte Carlo Masters, barring 2011, taking a long break before playing the other two Masters at Rome and Madrid. And though he finished as the finalist in the event for three consecutive years from 2006-08, losing to Rafa each time, the Monte Carlo Masters hasn’t exactly been a prominent feature in his calendar itinerary, for several reasons.

The lack of focused participation in the tournament by Federer can be attributed in a big way to the fact that the event, in spite of being a Masters event, isn’t a mandatory tournament like Indian Wells or Miami, or for that matter, Rome or Madrid. The position of Monte Carlo is quite unique in that even though it is enjoys partisanship from several elite players, its non-mandatory nature allows quite a few top-ranked players to skip it without worrying about flouting the ATP’s tournament norms.

Still, going by Federer’s resurgence this year, his decision to take a wild-card at the event seems quite justified. At the same time, however, it’s quite difficult to say whether the decision will benefit him for the entire duration of the clay season, as he seems to be hoping.

Despite the similarities between Federer’s decision to take a wild-card at the Monte Carlo Masters in 2009 and now, there are also quite a few pointed differences. For one thing, even though Federer has enjoyed a strong run of form this year, he’s still been patchy at times, and he hasn’t always managed to turn his stutters around in time. In Australia he fell prey rather easily to the attack-the-backhand strategy employed in brilliant fashion by Nadal, and in the Brisbane final his forehand went away completely at the start of the match.

Moreover, this time round, it’s not just Rafa with whom he has to tussle. The solidity of Djokovic’s game on clay is an equally tricky, if not trickier, obstacle for him to overcome. Federer is a combined 1-2 against the top two players in the world this year, with all three matches having been played on hardcourts, his preferred surface. That doesn’t bode particularly well for his potential battles against them on clay.

Seeded fourth at the Monte Carlo Masters, Federer has been drawn to play Novak Djokovic – the defending champion – in the semi-final. Assuming they both get to the semis, a lot will depend on how Federer is able to match up to Djokovic, who’s had an incredible run at the American hard court tournaments leading up to the clay season. If Federer struggles to implement a solid game against Djokovic, it will set a somewhat demoralising tone for the remainder of his clay season.

On the contrary, if he’s able to successfully challenge Djokovic, Federer will still be in with an outside chance of possibly dethroning Rafa not just at Monte Carlo, but also at that one tournament where his losses to the Spaniard have always hurt the most. His work with new coach Stefan Edberg has brought in an impressive streak of aggression to Federer’s game, and there’s no reason why an attacking strategy, if employed perfectly, won’t work on clay.

There are a lot of ifs and buts for something like that to take shape though, and for the moment, Federer’s immediate task would be to get past Radek Stepanek or Karlovic – his possible opponents in his first claycourt match of the year.