Roland Garros 2021: Men's draw analysis, preview and prediction
A decade ago, most Grand Slam men's draws were preceded by breathless discussions around one question alone: Which half will Novak Djokovic fall in?
Back then, Djokovic was usually the third seed behind the duopoly of Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal. So the Serb being drawn in either half would invariably make that player's draw tougher, and inevitably prompt a deluge of furious draw-rigging allegations.
In a curious twist of fate though, the 2021 Roland Garros men's draw was preceded by a different version of that question: Which half would Rafael Nadal fall in?
The Spaniard may be a 13-time champion at Paris, but he is currently down to No. 3 in the rankings because of Daniil Medvedev's recent hardcourt results. And that made Nadal the cornerstone around which everything hinged; he needed to have a half of his own, away from Novak Djokovic and Dominic Thiem and maybe even Stefanos Tsitsipas. And if that didn't happen, well, all hell would break loose.
As luck would have it, Rafael Nadal hasn't quite got a half of his own. So what does that mean for the rest of the unfortunate field? Here's a closer look at how the draw could be expected to unfold:
1st quarter: Novak Djokovic launches his Double Career Grand Slam bid, once again
Top seeds: [1] Novak Djokovic, [8] Roger Federer, [9] Matteo Berrettini, [13] David Goffin
It goes without saying that Novak Djokovic would be fully motivated to do well at this year's French Open. The 34-year-old is just two Majors short of the all-time record of 20 (held jointly by Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal at the moment), so Paris presents a great opportunity to get within touching distance of them. He is also, once again, in with a shot of becoming the first man in the Open Era to complete the Double Career Grand Slam (i.e. winning each Slam at least twice).
But while Djokovic may be the World No. 1 and top seed, he's certainly not the biggest favorite for the Roland Garros title. And unfortunately for him, the draw has ensured that he isn't even the favorite to reach the final; the Serb could face Rafael Nadal in the semis.
The good news is that Djokovic doesn't have a lot of big hurdles until that stage. The 34-year-old opens against Tennys Sandgren, with a potential second-rounder against Pablo Cuevas or Lucas Pouille. After that he could face Ugo Humbert, Ricardas Berankis or Salvatore Caruso, followed by a possible fourth-round clash with David Goffin.
Goffin, however, has a very dangerous first-round encounter against Italian teen prodigy Lorenzo Musetti. Last year Goffin played another Italian teen sensation - Jannik Sinner - in the Roland Garros first round, and ended up losing. Given the Belgian's recent form, it wouldn't be completely shocking if Musetti emulated his countryman this year.
Also here are Alex de Minaur (who opens against Stefano Travaglia), 2013 semifinalist Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (who plays the in-form Yoshihito Nishioka in the first round) and 2018 semifinalist Marco Cecchinato (who could face De Minaur in the second round). The projected third-round match in this section is between Goffin and De Minaur, but don't be surprised if it is something entirely different.
At the other end of this quarter is 2009 champion Roger Federer, who opens against a qualifier and could face Marin Cilic in the second round. Federer is projected to play Taylor Fritz (or more likely Dominik Koepfer, since it is clay) in the third round, followed by Matteo Berrettini in the fourth.
However, not many would expect the Swiss to get as far as that given how much he struggled at Geneva last week.
Berrettini, on his part, starts against a qualifier and could play Felix Auger-Aliassime in the third round. The Italian, who reached the final of the Madrid Open a couple of weeks ago, looks like a good bet to come out of this section and meet Novak Djokovic in the quarters.
Predicted quarterfinal: Novak Djokovic def. Matteo Berrettini
Dark horse: Felix Auger-Aliassime
First-round match to watch: David Goffin vs Lorenzo Musetti
2nd quarter: Rafael Nadal looks to immortalize his immortality in Paris
Top seeds: [3] Rafael Nadal, [7] Andrey Rublev, [10] Diego Schwartzman, [14] Gael Monfils
Where do you go after you've won 13 French Open trophies? Why return to Paris to try and win a 14th, of course.
No, we are not talking about normal human beings here. Rafael Nadal proved that he was immortal about a decade ago, when he won his seventh Roland Garros title, and he's almost doubled that haul now. What is immortal times two? Don't snigger; Nadal has reduced just about everything in Paris to a joke.
Considering his belief-defying record at Roland Garros, the proper thing to do would have been to cancel the tournament altogether and hand him the trophy at the start of the fortnight. But since Nadal has shown a few signs of vulnerability this year - the loss to Andrey Rublev in Monte Carlo, for instance - it might be worthwhile to cast a sideways glance at his draw.
Nadal starts against Alexei Popyrin (whom he beat comfortably in Madrid a couple of weeks ago), followed by a second-round match against either Hugo Gaston or Richard Gasquet. Gaston made waves at his home Slam last year, reaching the fourth round and nearly drop-shotting Dominic Thiem to insanity, but he is unlikely to have much success doing a repeat of that against Nadal. Or even against Gasquet, if we're being perfectly honest.
Nadal could have a slightly troublesome match against Lorenzo Sonego in the third round, but it's nothing he hasn't handled in Paris before. After that he could face Jannik Sinner or Gael Monfils (the former much more likely), and it's hard to see him losing more than a set against either.
At the other end of this quarter lies Nadal's Monte Carlo conqueror Andrey Rublev. The Russian has a tough first-rounder against Jan-Lennard Struff, but things will likely get much easier from there - he could face Benjamin Bonzi in the second round, and one of Nikoloz Basilashvili or Dusan Lajovic in the third.
The winner of a possible third-round match between last year's semifinalist Diego Schwartzman and the big-hitting Aslan Karatsev would likely await Rublev in the Round of 16. Karatsev has beaten both Schwartzman and Rublev this year - at the Australian Open and Dubai respectively - so he's certainly a player both of them would need to be wary of.
Predicted quarterfinal: Rafael Nadal def. Andrey Rublev
Dark horse: Aslan Karatsev
First-round match to watch: Andrey Rublev vs Jan-Lennard Struff
3rd quarter: Can Dominic Thiem regain his form in time to stop Alexander Zverev?
Top seeds: [4] Dominic Thiem, [7] Alexander Zverev, [11] Roberto Bautista Agut, [15] Casper Ruud
One of the biggest question marks this clay season has been the form of Dominic Thiem. The Austrian had been struggling with physical and mental issues for much of the first quarter of the year, and he played his first tournament on dirt only in Madrid.
Thiem did look reasonably comfortable in the Spanish city before he was outclassed by Alexander Zverev in the semis. Unfortunately for the reigning US Open champion, Zverev is looming large in Paris too; the two good friends are projected to run into each other in the quarters.
Thiem has a tough task on his hands if he hopes to rediscover his 2019 self in time for that match. He does, however, have a couple of straightforward early-round matches to play himself into form.
The 27-year-old opens against Pablo Andujar and could play Federico Delbonis in the second. That might be followed by a potential third-rounder against the talented but off-color Fabio Fognini.
It is the fourth round where the alarm bells could start ringing for Thiem, as he could face the red-hot Casper Ruud there. Ruud himself doesn't seem to have any tough obstacles in his first few matches, with Hubert Hurkacz in the third round looking like the only mildly challenging matchup.
If Ruud does get to the Round of 16, he would likely be fresh and ready for a mighty Austrian take-down.
Zverev, meanwhile, has an easier route than either Thiem or Ruud. The 24-year-old's first two opponents will be qualifiers, after which he could take on Dan Evans in the third round.
A potential Round of 16 clash against one of Karen Khachanov, Roberto Bautista Agut or Kei Nishikori does look a little tricky on paper. But given Zverev's recent form, it is likely to be another routine day in the office for the German.
Predicted quarterfinal: Alexander Zverev def. Casper Ruud
Dark horse: Kei Nishikori
First-round match to watch: Miomir Kecmanovic vs Dan Evans
4th quarter: Is it Stefanos Tsitsipas' time?
Top seeds: [2] Daniil Medvedev, [5] Stefanos Tsitsipas, [12] Pablo Carreno Busta, [16] Grigor Dimitrov
Stefanos Tsitsipas has been the second-best player on clay so far this year. Remarkably though, he was one swing of the racket away from being the topmost player in that list.
Tsitsipas had match point against Rafael Nadal in the Barcelona final, and if he had taken that chance he would have had as many as three clay trophies over the last couple of months (Nadal, by contrast, has two).
The Greek is coming into Paris on the back of a title run in Lyon, and he's looking better than he ever has ahead of a Grand Slam. Tsitsipas has never reached a Major final, but is he about to break that barrier?
His draw certainly doesn't make it sound impossible. Tsitsipas has had the good fortune of being placed in the quarter of Daniil Medvedev, who is the tournament's second seed only in name. This is Tsitsipas' quarter for all practical purposes, with the winner likely to face Alexander Zverev in the semis.
But Tsitsipas does have a few early curve-balls, in the form of Sebastian Korda in the second round and either John Isner or Filip Krajinovic in the third. A potential fourth-rounder against Pablo Carreno Busta or Milos Raonic is unlikely to be easy either, but Tsitsipas should be expected to overcome all these obstacles.
And what of Daniil Medvedev? Given that he has never won a match at Roland Garros (in four tries), his section ought to be considered a free-for-all. But for academic purposes, here's a look at the Russian's likely path: Alexander Bublik in the first round, possibly Tommy Paul in the second, Reilly Opelka in the third, and either Grigor Dimitrov or Cristian Garin in the fourth.
I don't know about you, but that first-round match against Bublik seems to have 'upset' written all over it. Will it really be an upset if Bublik wins though?
Predicted quarterfinal: Stefanos Tsitsipas def. Cristian Garin
Dark horse: Reilly Opelka
First-round match to watch: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik
Semifinal predictions
Rafael Nadal def. Novak Djokovic, Stefanos Tsitsipas def. Alexander Zverev
Predicted champion
Rafael Nadal
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