Roland Garros 2021: Rafael Nadal's projected path to the final
Rafael Nadal is gearing up for his 17th appearance at Roland Garros, where he is a 13-time champion.
The Spaniard has had a mixed claycourt campaign this year, which includes titles in Barcelona and Rome and quarterfinal appearances in Monte Carlo and Madrid. That said, previous results are unlikely to have any bearing on his campaign at the French Open, where he is a firm favorite.
On that note, let's take a look at Rafael Nadal's potential opponents at Roland Garros this year.
Rafael Nadal's 1st round opponent - Alexei Popyrin
Rafael Nadal opens his campaign against Australia's Alexei Popyrin. Popyrin is relatively inexperienced on clay, but he has given a good account of himself on the surface this year.
The Aussie, who won the inaugural edition of the Singapore Open earlier this year, beat Jannik Sinner in the second round at Madrid before falling to Nadal in straight sets.
Rafael Nadal's likely 2nd round opponent - Richard Gasquet / Hugo Gaston
Rafael Nadal could then face local wildcard Hugo Gaston or former World No. 7 Richard Gasquet in the second round. The Spaniard has dominated the head-to-head against Gasquet, winning all 16 of their matches. He has yet to face Gaston on the professional tour.
Rafael Nadal's likely 3rd round opponent - Lorenzo Sonego
Rafael Nadal could face his first real test in the third round against the in-form Lorenzo Sonego. Sonego had a successful European claycourt swing, winning the title at Cagliari before reaching the semifinals of the Rome Masters - where he lost to Novak Djokovic in a thrilling three-set match.
Sonego has a punishing serve and huge groundstrokes, so Nadal will have to be wary of the challenge posed by the Italian.
Rafael Nadal's likely 4th round opponent - Jannik Sinner / Gael Monfils
If Rafael Nadal passes the third-round test, he will likely face either 14th seed Gael Monfils or 2020 quarterfinalist Jannik Sinner for a place in the last eight.
Nadal leads Sinner 2-0 in their head-to-head and has not yet dropped a set to the young Italian. However, he was tested by Sinner in their second-round clash at Rome, and will have to be on his toes if they were to meet in Paris.
Rafael Nadal's likely quarterfinal opponent - Andrey Rublev / Diego Schwartzman / Aslan Karatsev
If Rafael Nadal advances past the fourth round, he will likely meet his Monte Carlo conqueror Andrey Rublev, 2020 semifinalist Diego Schwartzman or 24th seed Aslan Karatsev in the quarterfinals.
Rublev handed Nadal his first loss during this year's clay swing, bundling him out of Monte Carlo in three hard-fought sets. Karatsev and Schwartzman could also cause Nadal plenty of problems with their solid baseline games.
That said, the Spaniard has the ability to raise his level under pressure and should be able to come through.
Rafael Nadal's likely semifinal opponent - Novak Djokovic
For a place in the championship match, Rafael Nadal will most likely have to lock horns with World No. 1 Novak Djokovic. The Spaniard turned in his best performance of the year in the final of the Italian Open against Djokovic, beating the Serb in a thrilling three-setter.
Although Djokovic was able to match Nadal from the baseline for the most part, the Spaniard was able to find a new gear towards the closing stages to seal the win.
If the Serb fails to make it to the semifinals, Nadal could face either Roger Federer or Matteo Berrettini.
Rafael Nadal's likely opponent in the final - Dominic Thiem / Alexander Zverev / Stefanos Tsitsipas
If Rafael Nadal successfully navigates his way through his half of the draw, he will probably face Stefanos Tsitsipas, Alexander Zverev or Dominic Thiem in the summit clash.
Both Tsitsipas and Zverev have won a claycourt Masters 1000 title this year, while Thiem reached back-to-back Roland Garros finals in 2018 and 2019. Each of the three has also beaten Rafael Nadal on clay.
But the Spaniard, who enjoys a 26-0 win-loss record in semifinals and finals in Paris, should be able to come through the challenge and lift his 21st Grand Slam title.