Shanghai Masters 2024: Ben Shelton vs Roberto Carballes Baena preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds, and pick
Match Details
Fixture: (16) Ben Shelton vs Roberto Carballes Baena
Date: October 6, 2024
Tournament: Shanghai Masters 2024
Round: Third Round (Round of 32)
Venue: Qizhong Forest Sports City Arena, Shanghai, China
Category: ATP Masters 1000
Surface: Hard
Prize Money: $8,995,555
Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN
Ben Shelton vs Roberto Carballes Baena preview
Sixteenth seed Ben Shelton will square off against Roberto Carballes Baena in the third round of the Shanghai Masters 2024 on Sunday (October 6).
After a first-round bye, Shelton was up against former top-10 player Denis Shapovalov in the second round. This marked their third contest this year, following their five-set tussle at Wimbledon, and a straight-sets battle at the Citi Open, with both matches going the American's way.
This was another competitive affair, though the outcome was the same. A single break of serve in each set helped Shelton beat Shapovalov 6-3, 7-5 for the third time this year.
Carballes Baena, meanwhile, took on fellow Spaniard Roberto Bautista Agut in his opener here, and staged a comeback to beat him 3-6, 6-3, 6-2. His second-round opponent was 21st seed Arthur Fils, who had just won the Japan Open a couple of days ago.
Both sets played out in similar fashion. Carballes Baena led by a break in each set, only for Fils to recover and push the set to a tie-break. The former edged out the latter in it to register a 7-6 (4), 7-6 (5) win.
Ben Shelton vs Roberto Carballes Baena head-to-head
Shelton leads Carballes Baena 1-0 in the head-to-head. He won their previous meeting at this year's ASB Classic in Auckland in straight sets.
Ben Shelton vs Roberto Carballes Baena odds
(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)
Ben Shelton vs Roberto Carballes Baena prediction
Shelton completed a hat-trick of wins against Shapovalov by beating him in the previous round. He didn't face a single break point, won 76 percent of his first-serve points, and hit 21 winners compared to 23 unforced errors. A quarterfinalist here last year, he will aim to repeat the feat this time, or even better it.
Carballes Baena brought an end to in-form Fils' winning streak by ousting him in the previous round. He improved his yearly record to 24-22, and to 9-8 on hardcourts.
It was also Carballes Baena's first win on hardcourts against a top-30 player this year. He had previously lost all four matches against them in straight sets. Shelton has more than twice as many wins as the Spaniard on hardcourts, and has compiled a 24-14 record on the surface.
The young American also has a 15-3 record on hardcourts against players ranked outside the top 50. Carballes Baena's defensive tactics helped him survive an onslaught from Fils. However, he could find it tough to do the same against Shelton, who employs a similar brand of tennis like the Frenchman, but has a better record than him this year.
Pick: Ben Shelton to win in straight sets.