Statistical Analysis: Where will the Top 8 stand after the Australian Open?
The Australian Open has thrown up its fair share of surprises and has provided for some enthralling days of high quality tennis. With defending champion Novak Djokovic knocked out and Rafael Nadal not defending any points at Melbourne Park, there could be a major upheaval of rankings once the tournament ends.
LONDON, ENGLAND – NOVEMBER 21: (L-R) Andy Murray of Great Britain, Novak Djokovic of Siberia, Roger Federer of Switzerland and Rafael Nadal of Spain
Here is a permutation and combination of all the possible cases that may arise after the Slam:
Rafael Nadal
With no points to defend at the Austalian Open, Rafael Nadal would be at a no-loss situation and any points gained would only strengthen his position at the top of the ATP rankings. Having reached the semifinals, Nadal has already gained 720 points from the tournament. Any further wins would take his ranking points near to an astonishing total of 15,000.
Ranking Points: 13,130 + 720 = 13,850 (losing semifinalist)
13,130 + 1,200 = 14,330 (finalist)
13,130 + 2,000 = 15,130 (winner)
In any case, Nadal would retain his number 1 position in the ATP world tour rankings.
Novak Djokovic
With a quarterfinal defeat, Novak Djokovic would lose the 2000 points scored last year and gain only 360 for reaching the quarters. As a result, Djokovic’s ranking points would be:
Ranking Points: 12,260-2,000+360 = 10,620
This would be sufficient for Nole to retain his number two spot in the ATP world rankings.
David Ferrer
David Ferrer would also lose out on some points at the Australian Open as he was unable to replicate his 2013 semifinal performance. Thus, Ferrer would lose 360 points, which is the difference between the points for a quarterfinal and a semifinal position.
Ranking Points: 5,640-720+360=5,280
Juan Martin Del Potro
Del Potro is certain to jump up some spots in the rankings despite a poor showing at Melbourne Park. The reason for this is that Del Potro lost out in the 3rd round last year and also lost in the same round this year. As a result, the Argentine did not gain or lose any points.
Ranking Points: 5,415-90+90=5,415
Andy Murray
With a loss to Roger Federer in the quarterfinal, Andy Murray would lose a significant amount of points having been unable to reach the finals this time around.
Ranking Points: 5,560 – 1,200 + 360 = 4,720
Roger Federer
Despite a much improved performance from the latter half of 2013, a semifinal berth does not guarantee a move up in the rankings for Roger Federer. Defending the points he gained by reaching the semis in 2013, Federer can only move up the rankings if he reaches the final or wins the tournament.
Ranking Points: 4,355 -720 +720 = 4,355 (losing semifinalist)
4,355-720+1,200= 4,825 (finalist)
4,355-720+2,000= 5,635 (winner)
Stanislas Wawrinka
After an upset win and a second consecutive Grand Slam semifinal, Stanislas Wawrinka would be rewarded with a significant rise in the rankings after the Australian Open.
Ranking Points: 3,890 – 180 +720= 4,430 (losing semifinalist)
3,890 – 180 +1,200 = 4,910 (finalist)
3,890 – 180 +2,000 = 5,710 (winner)
Tomas Berdych
While for Czech number 1 Tomas Berdych, a semifinal performance would certainly bear some fruit as he was able to improve on his quarterfinal position from last year.
Ranking Points: 4,180 – 360 +720 = 4,540 (losing semifinalist)
4,180 – 360 +1,200 = 5,020 (finalist)
4,180 – 360 +2,000 = 5,820 (winner)
After all this number crunching, let us see where the players stand considering the different possible outcomes:
- Nadal wins:
| Berdych reaches final | Wawrinka reaches final | |
| 1 | Nadal | Nadal |
| 2 | Djokovic | Djokovic |
| 3 | Del Potro | Del Potro |
| 4 | Ferrer | Ferrer |
| 5 | Berdych | Wawrinka |
| 6 | Murray | Murray |
| 7 | Wawrinka | Berdych |
| 8 | Federer | Federer |
- Federer wins:
| Berdych reaches final | Wawrinka reaches final | |
| 1 | Nadal | Nadal |
| 2 | Djokovic | Djokovic |
| 3 | Federer | Federer |
| 4 | Del Potro | Del Potro |
| 5 | Ferrer | Ferrer |
| 6 | Berdych | Wawrinka |
| 7 | Murray | Murray |
| 8 | Wawrinka | Berdych |
- Wawrinka wins:
| Federer reaches final | Nadal reaches final | |
| 1 | Nadal | Nadal |
| 2 | Djokovic | Djokovic |
| 3 | Wawrinka | Wawrinka |
| 4 | Del Potro | Del Potro |
| 5 | Ferrer | Ferrer |
| 6 | Federer | Murray |
| 7 | Murray | Berdych |
| 8 | Berdych | Federer |
- Berdych wins:
| Federer reaches final | Nadal reaches final | |
| 1 | Nadal | Nadal |
| 2 | Djokovic | Djokovic |
| 3 | Berdych | Berdych |
| 4 | Del Potro | Del Potro |
| 5 | Ferrer | Ferrer |
| 6 | Federer | Murray |
| 7 | Murray | Wawrinka |
| 8 | Wawrinka | Federer |
The final four left in the draw have all to play for when they take the court at Rod Laver Arena for the semis of the 2014 Australian Open.