Tennis: Australian Open Men's draw dissected

All right mates!

The new tennis season is back with a bang. We are only a few turns of the hour-glass away from the first major of the year. The Australian Open draw was announced earlier today. A combination of tricky match-ups and sweltering temperatures down-under is surely giving a lot of our heroes some sweaty palms out there!

Littered with former champs, a new champ, past heroes, local hopes and future stars, the Australian Open men’s draw is not only highly unpredictable, but also promises to be full of oohs and aahs. So let’s take a look at it.

The First Quarter

Novak Djokovic will be attempting to become the first man in the Open Era to win three back to back Aussie Open titles. He will also be trying to tie Agassi and Federer by winning his fourth title in Melbourne Park. So, he would be feeling pretty confident about his chances with his quarter of the draw. He faces Frenchman Paul-Henri Mathieu in the opener. Then he could face either Feliciano Lopez or Radek Stepanek in the third round. Both players are very good and on any other day/tournament/surface, I’d give them a fair chance at pulling off an upset. But on the plexicushion surface in Australia, neither has any firepower or any strategic advantage against the mighty Serb. His fourth round opponent could be Sam Querrey (who defeated Djokovic in the Paris Masters last year) or Stan Wawrinka, but neither should pose much of a threat.

At the other end of this quarter is Tomas Berdych. He lost, famously, in five sets to Roger Federer here, in 2009, after being two sets to love up. But 2010 and 2011 were his best seasons on court and he has been one of the few outside the top four who has managed to cause the rare upset in these two years. This year, his target will be Djokovic in the quarter-finals. But before that, he may have a tough challenge in the third-round match in the form of Roberto Bautista Agut, whom he lost to only a week ago in Chennai. And if he gets past that, a clash against Juan Monaco might be on offer in the fourth-round. It will not be right to disregard Juan ‘Pico’ Monaco.

Despite being known for his preference for clay, he is an able hard-courter. This is highlighted by two 4th round appearances in the US Open and semi-finals in the Masters events at Miami and Paris. But Monaco would have already done better than his previous performances in Australia by reaching the fourth round. And if the Berdych forehand is in tune, he would have a tough time bettering his record.

Predictions: Quarter-finals between Novak Djokovic and Tomas Berdych. Djokovic to win in 4 tough sets.

The Second Quarter

The man with the most match wins last year, David Ferrer, will concede that he has been handed a fair draw to make a run to the semi-finals. With Rafael Nadal’s withdrawal, he finds himself thrust in to the top four and of all the players who claim a spot in it, he has the strongest case. The problem with the current No. 1 Spaniard is that he does not have the game that would bother the three ahead of him. But he does have fairly simple route to travel before he is posed with that problem again. He opens against Olivier Rochus, in what will be a match of 30+ year olds. His opponents in the subsequent rounds could be Ivo Karlovic or Marcos Baghdatis, both of whom should not cause Ferrer to fret. A possible fourth round match-up could be against Kei Nishikori. That will certainly be one good match to look forward to.

Chennai champion Janko Tipsarevic will have mixed emotions about his side of the draw. Of the top 8 seeds, he faces, undoubtedly, the toughest first round match. Not because Lleyton Hewitt is a former grand-slam champion, as Hewitt is not any more the player he once was. The challenge for Tipsarevic is to face the Australian hero in Australia in front of 18000 highly vocal and partial fans. Does Hewitt have another “C’MON!” in him to make the Aussie fans go “Oi Oi Oi!” again? The good part for Tipsarevic is that if he does win this match, then he will not mind Grigor Dimitrov in the third round or Nicolas Almagro in the fourth.

Predictions: Quarter-finals between Ferrer and Tipsarevic. Ferrer to buzz past in 5 sets.

The Third Quarter

Judy Murray recently said that the addition of Ivan Lendl was the final piece needed to solve Andy Murray’s grand slam riddle. This Australian Open marks the first anniversary of the successful partnership. Murray opens his campaign against Robin Haase of the Netherlands. Haase has a 1-1 record against the Scot, one which could have been 2-0 had he converted from a 2 sets to 0 lead in the US Open two years ago. But that was Ye Murray of the Olde. Andy should not lose any sleep till the quarter-finals at least. His likely opponents in the subsequent rounds (and here, I’m going by seedings, as this section is the most unpredictable one) will be Florian Mayer and Gilles Simon.

An interesting match in this section will be a first round clash between Alexandr Dolgopolov and Gael Monfils. The Frenchman has had a fair start to this season with motivational wins over Phillip Kohlschrieber and Tommy Haas. Dolgopolov is the seeded player but this match is as decided as a coin-toss. Promises to be fun!

Murray’s greatest threat will be in the form of Juan Martin Del Potro. The Argentine is back to his post 2009 US Open form. Two wins against Roger Federer and a semi-final finish in the World Tour Finals last season will ensure that he believes in his chances going into the tournament. He opens against a qualifier and may get a challenge in the fourth round from Marin Cilic. Otherwise, he looks good to take on Andy Murray in the Quarter-finals.

Prediction: I’d like to see Juan Martin Del Potro sneak past the duo of Murray and Lendl. But I’d have to tip the odds ever so slightly in favour of the Scotsman.

The Fourth Quarter

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has a penchant for losing to diminutive Asians in tough matches. Well, one particular one, by the name of Nishikori. Go (Soeda) is no Kei but Tsonga will be hoping he does not derail against any of his early opponents. In the third round he may face Thomaz Bellucci. Then in the fourth round, it will either be Tommy Haas or Richard Gasquet. Now it all depends on which Tsonga turns up against these men – The high speed freight train that mowed down Rafael Nadal 6-2 6-3 6-2, here in Australia in 2008, or the joy-ride train that was knocked over by Federer’s racquet with the same score, at the same stage in the same stadium in 2010. In case it is the former, then Gasquet or Haas do not stand much of a chance. If it is the former then he should certainly hope the inertia remains in the quarter-finals, where he might face Federer.

Which brings us to the Swiss Maestro – who probably would not be too pleased right now. If you had asked him to chose three of the top eight ranks in his quarter, he would have certainly not chosen Del Potro, Tsonga and Murray. He would, I’m pretty sure, swap any two with Ferrer and Tipsarevic in the blink of an eye. The rest of his draw is also not something to sing about.

He opens against Benoit Paire, who was the semi-finalist in Chennai last week. I’m sure he would not like the prospect of Nikolay Davydenko as a second round match either. He would of course do well to remember that his victory over the Russian, here in 2010, was the turning point en route to the title. A potential third round against Bernard Tomic might also not appeal to Roger. Their last meeting was a lesson in the sport for the young Aussie. Since then, Tomic went into a free fall and is currently ranked at a low 67. But in 2013, he has pulled a win over Djokovic in the Hopman Cup and will contest his first ATP final in Sydney on Saturday. An in form Tomic could be a tricky obstacle. And finally, the last bitter piece of this pie will be Milos Raonic, a possible 4th round opponent. Incredibly, Federer has lost the first set to the Canadian each time they have met. Sustained bludgeoning, a tactic which has worked against Federer in the past, is what Raonic will have to bring to that match if he wants to upset the Swiss.

Prediction: There is too much class in Roger. Raonic is still a little away from producing the kind of jaw dropping tennis Tsonga or Berdych showed to upset Roger.

Can Tsonga defeat Roger in the quarters? Yes.

Will Tsonga defeat Roger in the quarters? This is the toughest question to answer. I plead the 5th Amendment.