The Clayptomaniac Season: Rafa and his stolen mojo

Rafael Nadal made a great start to 2015 at Abu Dhabi. He beat Stan Wawrinka in the first play off at the Mubadala World Tennis Championship – a non-ATP affiliated exhibition tournament. The euphoria of emulating another stellar comeback, like the one he had in 2013, did not last long as he was packed off by Murray the very next day. Rafa managed to win just two games in that match and understandably so. He had been out of action for almost three months since his loss to a 17-year-old rising star Borna Coric in Basel. Injury has been Rafa’s biggest nemesis all his career.

The Spaniard was the favorite in Doha. But the defending champion fell to 34-year-old Micheal Berrer of Germany in the first round. However, he did win the Doubles title alongside Juan Monaco to gain as much match practice as possible in the run up to the Australian Open.

In the Australian Open, for someone who was making a comeback from injury, Rafa made quite a deep run. Berdych, for only the second time in 18 meetings, got the better of him in the quarterfinals.

Rafa’s performances in the Masters events at Madrid and Rome are critical to his preparation for Roland Garros. A quick check at this point would give us a picture of his journey so far and what he would probably need to do to win a record 10th title at Roland Garros.

Chaos on Clay

While it’s quite a challenge to place a finger on the exact factors that have contributed to a woeful season on his most favorite surface, there have been certain trends based on the matches he has played so far.

Post the Australian Open, Rafa made a start to his clay season by playing at the Rio Open, an ATP 500 tournament. He was stunned by Fabio Fognini in the semifinal that ended in the wee hours of the morning. This was Rafa’s first semifinal loss on clay in 12 years!

Nadal	6-1, 2-6, 5-7	Fognini
0	Aces	2
6	Double Faults	5
62	1st Serve In %	67
64	1st Serve Points Won %	67
43	2nd Serve Points Won %	46
18	Winners	32
26	Unforced Errors	27
9 out of 11	Net Points Won	8 out of 11
4 out of 9	Break Points Won	5 out of 9

Watch this amazing match point at Rio Open 2015!

Rafa chose to play the ATP 250 event at Buenos Aires as a confidence building measure. The Masters Events at Indian Wells and Miami were not too far away. He defeated his dear friend ‘Pico’ Juan Monaco to claim his first title since the 2014 French Open. As a matter of fact, the highest ranked player he faced in Buenos Aires was World No.59 Federico Delbonis. Though this title did some good to his confidence, it was never a strong statement that heralded his possible dominance during the rest of the season.

Rafa’s performance at the March Masters was quite forgettable. Despite having three match points in the quarterfinals at Indian Wells, he lost to Milos Raonic in three sets. Miami was an even bigger disaster where he fell to Fernando Verdaso in the third round.

Nadal	6-4, 6-7, 5-7	Raonic
7	Aces	18
1	Double Faults	6
65	1st Serve In %	61
81	1st Serve Points Won %	81
67	2nd Serve Points Won %	48
25	Winners	48
22	Unforced Errors	59
8 out of 11	Net Points Won	18 out of 27
1 out of 7	Break Points Won	1 out of 4

An early exit from Miami turned out to be a blessing in disguise for Rafa as it would give him sufficient time to practice on clay for the upcoming Monte Carlo Masters. The draw indicated a possible semifinal show down with World No.1 Novak Djokovic. Djokovic handed Rafa a straight sets defeat.

Nadal	3-6, 3-6	Djokovic
2	Aces	1
3	Double Faults	0
65	1st Serve In %	75
58	1st Serve Points Won %	72
47	2nd Serve Points Won %	57
33%	Break Points Converted	40%

After exacting his revenge on Almagro in the second round, Rafa faced another familiar foe Fabio Fognini in the third Round of the Barcelona Open.

SET 1 : Rafa blinks first; Fognini wins the First Set 6-4 in 50 minutes

Fognini started the match with a comfortable hold. The key to this match for Fognini was his own temperament. Should he keep his wonky head in check, it would definitely help him make a match out of it. At 2-1 in favor of Fognini, some punishing rallies had begun to form now. At 3-3 Fognini led Rafa both on the winner and unforced error count. He was clearly playing some high risk tennis and moving Rafa around the court. He was mostly placing the ball deep into the backhand corner of Rafa and it was paying dividends.

With both players holding their serve, Fognini led 5-4 to put the scoreboard pressure on Rafa. Both had played quite subdued tennis so far with either of them not choosing to light the fuse, yet! Fognini chose to do the honors as he played some lights-out tennis to win the First Set 6-4.

SET 2: A see saw battle; Fognini comes through

At the start of the second Set, Rafa upped the intensity a little bit. He looked to swing the momentum onto his side as he quickly earned two break points on Fognini’s serve. Fognini saved both, but could not avoid the inevitable. The grunts from Rafa were getting louder and the shots were coming on deeper. The first game lasted for 12 minutes and Rafa finally won it on his seventh break point opportunity. Fognini seemed unruffled and maintained sharp focus. With some incredible athleticism and pulsating tennis, Fognini broke Nadal in the very next game to level the score at 1-1. The partisan crowd was muted as they had expected their hero to consolidate the break. Rafa did not keep their disappointment lingering for long as he immediately broke Fognini in the next game and stretched his lead to 3-1.

Fognini turned things around in the eighth game as he broke a tentative looking Rafa. At 4-4, Fognini looked ominous but Rafa would have none of it. Taking advantage of some loose points from Fognini, which only he could explain, Rafa broke him with a thumping forehand down the line. He roared “Vamos!” and walked towards his chair with a couple of fist pumps. The ccore line 5-4. The Vamos and the fist pumps clearly did not affect Fognini. With Rafa tantalizingly close to winning the second set, Fognini had other plans. His game came together as he broke Rafa and held serve to lead 6-5. Uncle Toni twitched in his seat and Flavia had a huge smile on her face.

Rafa managed to push the set to a tie break but in no avail. Fognini raced away to a 4-1 lead and never looked back. Rafa did well to save 3 match points but could not stop Fognini from romping home with another win. This was Rafa’s second straight loss to Fognini and it left him with a lot to ponder over for the rest of the clay season.

Rafa Nadal made several forehand unforced errors against Fabio Fognini in Barcelona

Nadal	4-6, 6-7	Fognini
1	Aces	1
0	Double Faults	1
70	1st Serve In %	54
58	1st Serve Points Won %	70
52	2nd Serve Points Won %	50
17	Winners	34
30	Unforced Errors	35
12 out of 18	Net Points Won	13 out of 16
3 out of 14	Break Points Won	4 out of 8

What the numbers suggest …

The Serve

Rafa does not have a big serve but he is known to serve intelligently. However, in his string of losses his first serve percentage has been hovering over the lower 60’s and as a consequence the percentage of points he has won on his first serve has also followed suit. Rafa, in his prime, was rarely associated with double faults. They are more conspicuous now.

Winners to Unforced Errors Ratio

The ratio is mostly 2:3 but in some bad losses as much as 1:2. Yes, it is possible to end up on the winning side with these ratios. But the winner count has not been high enough for Rafa to do so. His trademark thumping forehand that was once known to unleash fear in opponents drew flak from its own master recently. Following his loss to Fognini at Barcelona, Rafa called his forehand vulgar.

Break point conversion

Rafa has been unable to produce his best tennis in crucial points. His break point conversion is as low as 14%.

At the Net

He is definitely playing well at the net. Has he been approaching the net more than before to keep the points short?

Beyond the numbers…

The game is not just on Rafa’s racquet now

Since early 2014, a new trend emerged as far as Rafa’s performances were concerned. He lost to Stan Wawrinka, Alexandr Dolgopolov, David Ferrer, Nicolas Almagro, Dustin Brown, Nick Kyrgios, Martin Klizan, Feliciano Lopez, Borna Coric, Tomas Berdych, Micheal Berrer, Novak Djokovic and Fabio Fognini. Now more players believe that they can win against Rafa. They approach their match against him with more confidence.

The fitness level and intensity

Since the beginning of this season, Rafa has been unable to string together a series of consistent performances at the highest level. Though he is still trying to get back to his best fitness levels, he said he was feeling quite tired against Djokovic in Monte Carlo. “I think I played well for moments,'' said Nadal in his post-match conference. ''But I get a little bit tired a little bit too early. Then when you get little bit tired, you play a little bit shorter. Then it is impossible against him. He's phenomenal in the way that he can move the ball to everywhere. If he takes advantage from inside the court, you are dead.”

Intensity has always been his middle name. Over the years, he has always been known to maintain his intensity at the highest level from beginning to end. Off late it seizes to be at the same level.

The Key – Rafa’s state of mind

In his loss to Raonic at Indian Wells, although not on clay, he had three match points and yet lost it from there.

After his loss to Verdasco at Miami, Rafa said, “It's not the question of tennis, [It’s] the question of being relaxed enough to play well on court. Today my game in general improved since a month and a half [ago]. But at the same time, [I’m] still playing with too many nerves for a lot of moments, in important moments.”

“I have been able to control my emotions during 90 per cent, 95 per cent of my matches of my career… But I’m going to fix it,” he said. “I don't know if [it’ll be] in one week, in six months, or in one year, but I’m going to do it. It’s something that I need to fix for myself and with my team. I need the help of my team, but especially I need the help of myself. That's what I am trying to do. Nobody’s going to change the situation for you."

Many aspects of his game would probably fall in place, if he conquers those nerves. However, it is easier said than done!

Rafa’s Road Ahead

It is a long and dusty one that meanders through Madrid and Rome before it finally “ends” in Roland Garros (RG), Paris. Rafa has always thrived on these dusty roads and his prized possession at RG. He has a lot of points to defend at Madrid and Rome. He reached the finals at both events last year, won one and lost the other.

2015 looks very different! Djokovic seems unstoppable and Rafa would turn 29 a couple of days before the French Open Finale.

Rafa Nadal won his ninth French Open title last year

Despite Rafa’s below par showing on clay in 2014, he marched on to clinch his ninth title at Roland Garros and silenced his critics. Rafael Nadal is a completely different animal on the Center Court at Roland Garros. He knows where exactly his stolen mojo is and has managed to unearth it every time he walks on to that court!

You still want to count him out? Do it so at your own peril!