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Umag 2023: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alexei Popyrin preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds, and pick | Croatia Open

Match Details

Fixture: (7) Matteo Arnaldi vs Alexei Popyrin

Date: July 29, 2023

Tournament: Croatia Open Umag

Round: Semifinal

Venue: Croatia, Umag

Category: ATP 250

Surface: Clay

Prize money: €562,815

Live telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | Australia - beIN Sports | Canada - TSN


Matteo Arnaldi vs Alexei Popyrin preview

Matteo Arnaldi at the 2023 French Open.
Matteo Arnaldi at the 2023 French Open.

Seventh seed Matteo Arnaldi will take on Alexei Popyrin in the semifinals of the 2023 Croatia Open on Saturday.

Arnaldi defeated Jesper de Jong and Flavio Cobolli in straight sets to set up a quarterfinal clash against top seed Jiri Lehecka. The young Italian got broken in the very first game of the match and lost his serve once again to lose the opener.

Arnaldi rebounded rather quickly as he started the second set by snagging a break of serve. He fended off break points on his next few service games to go 3-1 up. The 22-year-old then bagged the last three games of the set to take it.

The third set was a close affair, with a single break of serve in Arnaldi's favor helping him seal a 3-6, 6-2, 6-4 comeback victory. He has now reached his first semifinal at the ATP level.

Popyrin ousted Benjamin Bonzi and third seed Sebastian Ofner to reach the last eight, where home favorite Dino Prizmic awaited him. An early break of serve put the Australian in the lead in the first set. However, he dropped serve while trying to close out the set at 5-4.

Nevertheless, Popyrin managed to clinch the set by gaining the upper hand in the ensuing tie-break. He led 3-1 in the second set, but Prizmic fought back to level the score.

Popyrin then wasted a match point on Przmic's serve at 5-4. With the latter serving to stay in the contest at 6-5, the Australian broke his serve on his sixth match point to win 7-6 (2), 7-5.


Matteo Arnaldi vs Alexei Popyrin head-to-head

This will be the first meeting between them, so the head-to-head stands at 0-0 for now.


Matteo Arnaldi vs Alexei Popyrin odds

PlayerMoneylineHandicap BetsTotal Games
Matteo Arnaldi
-150+1.5 (-375)Over 22.5 (-120)
Alexei Popyrin
+115-1.5 (+250)Under 22.5 (-115)

(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)


Matteo Arnaldi vs Alexei Popyrin prediction

Alexei Popyrin at the 2023 French Open.
Alexei Popyrin at the 2023 French Open.

Arnaldi did a great job at holding his nerve to stage a comeback. His serve helped him out quite a bit as he hit eight aces and won 75% of his first serve points. The Italian also started to win more points from the baseline as the match went on.

Popyrin has been solid all week and hasn't dropped a set in Umag. He was tested by Prizmic in the quarterfinals, but he managed to subdue him. The Australian is relatively more experienced than Arnaldi, who's gunning to reach his maiden ATP final.

The pressure could prove to be a bit much for the Italian and could possibly impede his play. Popryin will be looking to capitalize on any such letdowns by his opponent. The Australian's a big hitter and a pretty good server to boot. However, if Arnaldi is able to stay focused, he's likely to find himself one step closer to the title.

Pick: Matteo Arnaldi to win in three sets.

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