"Rafole" #37: Who will reign supreme? - US Open 2013 men's final preview

Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic

The “Rafole rivalry” in tennis is second to none when it comes to stunning the spectators with thrills and excitement. This jaw-dropping rivalry has almost always succeeded in producing see-saw battles on the tennis court. As the hair-raising “Rafole” clash is all set to wreck havoc on the final day of the fortnight for the third time in four years in Arthur Ashe stadium, let us look at the preview of this much-awaited encounter.

Rafael Nadal:

The Spaniard Rafael Nadal is arguably the best player in the world right now. Having won nine singles titles this year – which include five “ATP Masters 1000” and a Grand Slam – a title here in Flushing Meadows would bring him within touching distance of reclaiming his No. 1 ranking. Nadal has been able to make it to the finals of 11 of the 12 tournaments that he has contested so far. Plus, he has made a giant leap in the world rankings by pushing himself up to the second position, despite starting the year as World No. 5. So considering all of this, it is natural for anyone to pick him as the favourite to clinch his second US Open title.

However, it is not exactly necessary to list his achievements in order to be convinced that he is the frontrunner for capturing the Glamour Slam. The way he has succeeded as a hardcourt player this year – with an unbeaten run till date – is enough to support his cause. By triumphing in Indian Wells and scoring back-to-back victories in Montreal and Cincinnati, he has made the hardcourt season solely his own. It goes without saying that Rafa, whose serve has been broken only once in the tournament, is going to make life difficult for the World No. 1 Novak Djokovic in today’s blockbuster final.

Key factors for Nadal:

1. Maintaining a high first serve percentage

2. Hitting his topspin forehand, specially the down-the-line version, with conviction and consistency

3. Engaging Djokovic in long rallies

Novak Djokovic:

It has been an ordinary year (by his standards) for the World No. 1 Serb, even though he started off the season in an emphatic fashion with a victory at the Australian Open. Till date, he has been able to muster only three titles in 2013. Though reckoned as the best hardcourter in the world today, he has not done justice to his credentials so far. Incredibly, he has been crumbling against players to whom he shouldn’t lose on paper. He has managed to cling on to his No. 1 position despite playing below his potential, and it seems just a matter of time before his Spanish adversary brings him down. Unless he does something special in the final, his hopes of winning the title for the second time in his career might remain just a dream for now.

However, those who have been following the game religiously will be aware of his “come from behind” ability. If you are asked to pick one person in the world to beat Rafa even on the latter’s best day, then it has to be Djokovic. He might have been vanquished by Rafa in five of the last six matches played between the two, but his hardcourt record, save this year, is still far superior to that of the southpaw. In fact, he holds a winning head-to-head record of 11-6 over his arch rival on this surface.

It has remained anyone’s ball game till the very end whenever the two have locked horns this year, although the Serb ended up being on the losing side on two occasions. It is no secret that Djoker brings his best against the 12-time Grand Slam champion. If he succeeds in bringing his A game which was seen so frequently in 2011, he may tame the in-form Spaniard and take the match to the wire.

Key factors for Djokovic:

1. Hitting the return of serve with accuracy

2. Keeping unforced errors to a minimum

3. Keeping the points short and avoiding long rallies

Head-to-head record

The top two players in the world have played against each other for 36 times so far, with Nadal winning 21 of those matches. However, if you take into account the last thirteen matches played between them on various surfaces, starting from 2011 – a majority of which were in the finals – Djokovic has reigned supreme eight times. So it is not an easy task to pick one ahead of the two as they are both evenly matched.

Strengths and weaknesses

If the sledgehammer backhand is the strength of the Serb, then the Spaniard’s power lies in that lethal forehand of his. However, the World No. 1 is no mug with his forehand either. On the other hand, Nadal’s backhand is seemingly his Achilles’ heel. This is one weakness that Djokovic exploited to perfection in 2011, which turned all of their matches in his favour. Since then, the resolute Nadal has come a long way and has paced his game in such a manner that he gets to hit his forehand as much as possible. Furthermore, his serve has also improved considerably, and even though he is not known to unleash aces, he has learnt to start important points on the ascendancy with it.

On the other hand, Djokovic’s serve has been letting him down of late which was quite evident from what we saw in the final of Wimbledon a couple of months ago. If Djokovic, the shaky starter that he is, fails to get off to a flying start and gets broken early, then Nadal will take advantage of the situation and put the hapless Serb to the sword.

Prediction: Nadal in straight sets (if Djokovic loses the first set); Nadal in four sets (if Djokovic wins the first set).