US Open 2019: Analysing Federer's route to the final
Five-time champion Roger Federer finds himself in the top half of the draw at the 2019 US Open, where he has been pitted against defending champion and top seed Novak Djokovic in a possible blockbuster semi-final showdown. It also means a first-ever US Open meeting between Federer and Rafael Nadal would have to wait till the final.
Federer has exited the tournament even before the semi-finals in the last two editions though, losing to Del Potro in the quarter-finals in 2017 and inexplicably going down to unseeded Australian John Millman last year in a four-set fourth-round match.
38-year-old Federer has had a strong 2019 season so far, winning 39 of his 45 matches which have yielded 3 titles.
The Swiss arrives in New York a tad match short than he would have liked, following a surprise third-round loss in Cincinnati to Rublev which marked his earliest exit from the tournament in 12 years.
However, that is unlikely to be much of an impediment for the Swiss especially in the earlier rounds in New York, as Federer has never lost before the third round at the US Open, since a defeat to Ferrero on his tournament debut in 2000.
Route to the final
Federer opens his US Open 2019 campaign against a qualifier in the first round and faces another qualifier or Damir Dzumhur in the next round. The Swiss has won both his matches against the Bosnian, but hasn't played him since a first round win at 2015 Wimbledon.
The first seed in Federer's quarter of the draw is Frenchman Lucas Pouille, against whom Federer is also unbeaten in two previous meetings. The pair's most recent meeting was in the third round at 2019 Wimbledon which Federer won in straight sets.
In the fourth round, it could be either Cincinnati finalist David Goffin or Wimbledon quarter-finalist Guido Pella in the path of the Swiss. Federer has beaten Goffin in 8 of their 9 meetings on tour, trumping the Belgian in their last meeting in the final of Halle earlier this year while he is unbeaten in two matches against Pella.
If Federer reaches the US Open quarter-finals, Raonic, Dimitrov, Coric or seventh seed Kei Nishikori are his probable last-eight opponents. The Swiss has a combined 30-8 head-to-head record against the quartet (11-3 against Raonic, 7-0 against Dimitrov, 4-2 against Coric and 8-3 against Nishikori).
A quarter-final win would set up a probable mouth watering semi-final against the top-seeded Djokovic. The pair is 3-3 at the US Open, with Federer coming up second best in their last three meetings at the tournament.
The duo clashed at the US Open for five successive years from 2007 to 2011 and then in the 2015 title match. The Swiss won their first three encounters (2007 final and 2008-09 semi-finals) and hasn't been able to master the Serb in New York since.
Trailing 22-26 in their head-to-head, Federer does have unfinished business with Djokovic, following a heartbreaking loss in the Wimbledon final where the Swiss failed to convert championship points deep in the fifth set. In fact, Djokovic has won their last four matches in all competitions and has not lost to Federer at a Grand Slam in 5 matches since the 2012 Wimbledon semifinals - a run which also includes title matches at 2014-15 Wimbledon and the 2015 US Open.
If Federer manages to get his way past Djokovic for the first time at a Grand Slam tournament in 7 years, it could set up a first-ever match-up at the US Open with his arch-rival and second seed Rafael Nadal, for the right to be crowned the US Open champion.
It has been a long 11 years since Federer lifted his fifth title at the US Open. In the intervening period, the Swiss made it to two title matches at Flushing Meadows, where he came within two points of a sixth straight title in the 2009 final against Del Potro before coming up second best against his recent nemesis Djokovic in the 2015 title match.
History and recent form at the tournament might suggest against another title run for the Swiss, as Federer has never beaten both Djokovic and Nadal at the same Grand Slam event. He did come tantalizingly close to doing so at Wimbledon this year.
Would the Swiss be able to go a step further at the US Open?