US Open 2019: Analyzing Rafael Nadal's route to the final
Rafael Nadal lifted his third and most recent title in New York in 2017 following a straight-sets win over first-time Grand Slam finalist Kevin Anderson.
The Spaniard retired midway though his US Open semifinal against Juan Martin del Potro last year, and arrives at the 2019 US Open on the back of his 35th Masters title at Montreal.
Nadal has played in every edition of the US Open since his debut at the tournament in 2002 (lost to Younes El Aynaoui in the second round) except for 2012 and 2014. In his 14 previous appearances at Flushing Meadows, Nadal lost in the first week on five occasions, the last such instance being the third round in 2015 - when he squandered a two-set lead against Fabio Fognini to fall in five sets.
The Spaniard is one of seven players in the Open Era to have won the US Open at least three times, the others being Jimmy Connors (5), Pete Sampras (5), Roger Federer (5), John McEnroe (4), Ivan Lendl (3) and Novak Djokovic (3).
With his first title in his first US Open final in 2010, Nadal emulated Rod Laver, Andre Agassi and Federer to become the only players in the Open Era to win the coveted 'career Grand Slam' (Djokovic has since joined the group).
Route to the final in 2019
Nadal opens his 18th US Open campaign against Aussie John Millman. The only previous meeting between the pair, in the first round at 2017 Wimbledon, went the way of the Spaniard.
In the second round Nadal could meet another Aussie, Thanasi Kokkinakis, or a qualifier. Nadal's lone meeting with Kokkinakis was a victory for the Spaniard, in the second round of the 2014 Australian Open.
Compatriot Fernando Verdasco could be Nadal's first seeded opponent. Despite a commanding 17-3 head-to-head lead against Verdasco, Nadal's last Grand Slam meeting against his fellow lefty at the 2016 Australian Open resulted in Nadal's first ever first round exit.
John Isner and Marin Cilic are Nadal's probable opponents in the Round of 16. Nadal has won 7 of his 8 meetings against Isner, which includes a five-set first-round win at the 2011 French Open in the pair's only clash at a Grand Slam.
The Spaniard leads Cilic 6-2 in his head-to-head with the Croatian, but Nadal lost the pair's last Grand Slam meeting - in the quarterfinals of the 2018 Australian Open.
If Nadal reaches his ninth quarterfinal at the US Open, it could be Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Alexander Zverev or Karen Khachanov lying in wait. The Spaniard is a combined 11-0 against young guns Zverev and Khachanov, while he enjoys a 9-4 head-to-head lead over Tsonga.
The quartet of Stefanos Tsitsipas, Roberto Bautista Agut, Gael Monfils and Dominic Thiem are Nadal's probable semifinal opponents. Nadal leads Tsitsipas 4-1 in their head to head, which includes a straight-sets victory in the 2019 Australian Open semifinals.
Nadal is unbeaten in three matches against his compatriot Bautista Agut. The Spaniard is 14-2 against Monfils, which includes wins in his last 7 matches against the Frenchman. And he is 9-4 against Thiem, with all losses against the Austrian coming on clay; the pair's last hardcourt meeting resulted in victory for Nadal in a fifth set tiebreak, at the US Open quarterfinals last year.
A triumph in the semifinal could set up a title clash for the Spaniard with either Djokovic or Federer. Against Djokovic, whom Nadal trails 26-28 in the head-to-head, it would be the Spaniard's fourth title clash at the US Open (Nadal leads 2-1) and eighth at a Grand Slam (4-4). The pair's most recent meeting in a Grand Slam final went the way of Djokovic, at the Australian Open this year.
Nadal has never met Federer at the US Open and has a 24-16 head-to-head lead over the Swiss, which includes 10 wins in 14 Grand Slam meetings, and a 6-3 lead in Grand Slam title matches. Nadal came up short in the pair's last Grand Slam final, at the 2017 Australian Open.
Will the Spaniard overcome a tough draw littered with young guns, big hitters and two of his biggest rivals to land a 4th title at Flushing Meadows? We'll just have to wait and watch.