US Open 2020: Denis Shapovalov vs Pablo Carreno Busta preview, head-to-head & prediction
Match details
Fixture: Denis Shapovalov vs Pablo Carreno Busta
Date: 8 September 2020
Tournament: US Open 2020
Round: Quarterfinals
Venue: Flushing Meadows, New York, USA
Category: Grand Slam
Surface: Outdoor hardcourt
Prize money: $39,024,000
Match timing: 8.30 pm EDT, 6 am IST
Live telecast: USA - Tennis Channel / ESPN | India - Star Sports / Disney+ Hotstar VIP
Denis Shapovalov vs Pablo Carreno Busta preview
Denis Shapovalov has had an intense campaign at the 2020 US Open so far, with none of his first four matches finishing in straight sets. His first two games against Sebastian Korda and Kwon Soon-woo were four-sets affairs, but his toughest test of the tournament came in third round against Taylor Fritz.
The 12th seed fought back valiantly in that contest, coming back from two sets to one down to win 3-6, 6-3, 4-6, 7-6(5), 6-2.
Shapovalov then produced an excellent performance against No. 7 seed David Goffin to enter his maiden quarterfinal at a Grand Slam. He won 6-7(0), 6-3, 6-4, 6-3, ending the match in a flurry of spectacular winners.
Pablo Carreno Busta, meanwhile, has made it to his second quarterfinal at the US Open on the back of some extraordinary circumstances. The Spaniard faced World No. 1 Novak Djokovic in the fourth round, and was leading 6-5 in the first set before Djokovic was disqualified for accidentally hitting a lineswoman.
While the default meant that Carreno Busta made it to the final eight, being at the centre of such an absurd situation might be playing on his mind. However, the result has also probably given him a nothing-to-lose kind of momentum ahead of the quarterfinal.
Carreno Busta had a solid tournament before his fixture against Djokovic, particularly given the tense five-setter he played against Yasutaka Uchiyama in the first round. He followed up that marathon with routine straight-sets wins over Mitchell Krueger and Ricardas Berankis in the second and third rounds respectively.
Also check out: The complete US Open 2020 Schedule
Denis Shapovalov vs Pablo Carreno Busta head-to-head
Denis Shapovalov and Pablo Carreno Busta have met four times on tour so far, with the Spaniard leading the head-to-head 3-1.
The two have locked horns on hardcourt thrice, all of which have been won by Carreno Busta. Their first-ever encounter, in fact, was in the Round of 16 of the 2017 US Open. The Spaniard won in straight sets then, but with a tight 7-6(2), 7-6(4), 7-6(3) scoreline.
They met on hardcourt twice last year, in Chengdu and Vienna, with Carreno Busta winning both encounters in straight sets.
Shapovalov's only win against Carreno Busta came in the Rome Masters last year, where he registered a 6-3, 7-6(5) decision.
Denis Shapovalov vs Pablo Carreno Busta prediction
While Denis Shapovalov has a big serve and a powerful forehand, Pablo Carreno Busta moves exceptionally on any surface. The match will likely be a battle between Shapovalov's offense and Carreno Busta's defense.
The Canadian has won 78% of his first-serve points in the tournament so far and has fired a mammoth 68 aces. Carreno Busta, on the other hand, has put up impressive numbers on the return, so Shapovalov will have to hit his spots if he hopes to continue dominating on serve.
While Shapovalov is the higher-seeded and higher-ranked player at the moment, Carreno Busta has spent a lot less time on court in the tournament, which gives him a slight advantage. He also has a 100% record against the Canadian on hardcourt, and the psychological effect of that might play a role in the outcome on Tuesday.
Prediction: Pablo Carreno Busta to win in four sets.