US Open 2021: Men's singles draw analysis, preview and prediction
Tennis fans all over the world will set their clocks to New York time for the next two weeks as the year's final Grand Slam rolls around. The City That Never Sleeps is set to host the 2021 edition of the US Open at USTA's famous Billie Jean King International Tennis Center from August 30.
Last year, the US Open delivered a new men's champion, with Dominic Thiem breaking the stranglehold of the Big Three, who had etched their names on 13 consecutive Major trophies.
Thiem defeated Alexander Zverev in the final, coming back from two sets and a break down to win his maiden Grand Slam title in a match that saw plenty of momentum shifts.
Thiem will not have the opportunity to defend his title this year in the Big Apple; he was forced to withdraw from the US Open and end his season prematurely due to a wrist injury he suffered in Mallorca.
That's not all. For the second straight year, the US Open will be without both Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal, the two biggest stars in men's tennis. Both Federer and Nadal, like Thiem, ended their 2021 season due to injury.
But that doesn't mean this year's tournament is short of glitz and glamor. That's far from the case. In fact, the 2021 US Open could go down in the record books for one reason -- Novak Djokovic.
The Serb has won all three Majors played in the year so far and stands on the cusp of completing the Calendar Grand Slam. If the World No. 1 wins the US Open, he will become only the second man in history, after Rod Laver, to win all four Majors in the same calendar year.
It's not the only monumental feat Djokovic is gunning for. He is also looking to win his 21st Major and take sole ownership of the Grand Slam record; he is currently level with Federer and Nadal on 20 Majors.
The list of players expected to stand in Novak Djokovic's way includes Olympic gold medalist Alexander Zverev, Toronto champion Daniil Medvedev, Roland Garros runner-up Stefanos Tsitsipas and Wimbledon finalist Matteo Berrettini.
Other young guns, including Cincinnati finalist Andrey Rublev, top-10 debutant Denis Shapovalov, in-form Casper Ruud, Wimbledon semi-finalist Hubert Hurkacz and the rapidly rising Jannik Sinner, will all be looking to make a mark in the final Major of the year.
Last year's semi-finalist Pablo Carreno Busta, who won the bronze medal at the Tokyo Olympics after beating both Medvedev and Djokovic, will also be a dark horse in New York.
The 2021 US Open could also be a swansong for a couple of players like Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and the 42 year-old Ivo Karlovic, who are both on their last legs.
So without further ado, let's dive into the men's draw for the 2021 US Open:
1st Quarter: Novak Djokovic and Matteo Berrettini on course for Wimbledon rematch
Top seeds: [1] Novak Djokovic, [6] Matteo Berrettini, [10] Hubert Hurkacz, [14] Alex De Minaur
Expected quarterfinal: Novak Djokovic vs Matteo Berrettini
Analysis: Top seed Novak Djokovic has been tearing apart the entire field this year and starts as the outright favorite to win the tournament. The Serb must feel like the king of the world right now.
Djokovic, who is chasing a historic Calendar Slam, has been given quite a tricky draw. The World No. 1 will open his campaign against a qualifier, but will likely face big-hitting German Jan-Lennard Struff in the second round.
While Struff can be dangerous on his day, Djokovic has the game to handle the German and should not have much trouble advancing to the third round.
The three-time US Open champion is then slated to face either Kei Nishikori or David Goffin. While Nishikori beat Djokovic at this tournament in epic fashion in 2014, he has been a non-factor against the Serb since then.
Goffin, meanwhile, is on a five-match losing streak and might have a tough task getting past Citi Open finalist Mackenzie McDonald in the first round.
To reach the last eight, Djokovic will likely have to beat his Belgrade conqueror Aslan Karatsev. Karatsev has been on a tear this year, rising from the Challenger circuit to the Top 25 of the ATP rankings. But he has lost his last three matches.
Rising American Jenson Brooksby is also expected to cause some fireworks. He may even reach the second week considering Karatsev and Alex De Minaur's recent form.
On the other side of this quarter, Wimbledon runner-up Matteo Berrettini, bidding to reach a third consecutive Major quarter-final, will take on veteran Frenchman Jeremy Chardy in the opening round.
Berrettini has a dangerous path, with the likes of Corentin Moutet, and either Fabio Fognini or Vasek Pospisil standing between the Italian and a spot in the second week. But Berrettini is proving to be one of the most consistent players at Slams and should be able to manage his draw well.
Berrettini will likely face 10th seed Hubert Hurkacz in the quarterfinals. Hurkacz won the Miami Open earlier this year, proving he is no slouch on hardcourts. Considering Berrettini's lack of match practice heading into the US Open, Hurkacz might just come away with the win and set up a quarterfinal clash with Djokovic.
Dark horses: Jenson Brooksby, Taylor Fritz
First-round match to watch: Fabio Fognini vs Vasek Pospisil
Predicted quarterfinal result: Novak Djokovic def. Hubert Hurkacz
2nd Quarter: Alexander Zverev faces Sinner and Shapovalov test
Top seeds: [4] Alexander Zverev, [7] Denis Shapovalov, [9] Pablo Carreno Busta, [13] Jannik Sinner
Expected quarterfinal: Alexander Zverev vs Denis Shapovalov
Analysis: Alexander Zverev is in the middle of a purple patch at the moment. The German appears to have solved his double-fault problems of the previous two years.
The off-court allegations against Zverev don't seem to be weighing on his mind and he is playing at a high level. The German won the gold medal at the Tokyo Olympics, beating Novak Djokovic en route, and backed it up by triumphing at the Cincinnati Masters.
The fourth seed will open his campaign against big-serving American Sam Querrey. Zverev could face another big-server in the shape of the exciting Alexander Bublik in the third round.
Should the seeds hold up, Zverev and Jannik Sinner, the two torchbearers of ATP's NextGen, could lock horns in a blockbuster fourth-round clash.
The other section in this quarter is a free-for-all. Denis Shapovalov has lost his last four matches and comes into the US Open in dismal form. But the Wimbledon semifinalist has made a habit of failing at smaller tournaments, but raising his level in the Slams.
The Canadian could face Olympic silver medalist Karen Khachanov in the third round if the Russian can come through his first two encounters, which includes a clash with the in-form Lloyd Harris.
Elsewhere, Pablo Carreno Busta, who has been riding a wave of confidence since the Olympics, is expected to cause all sorts of problems. The Spaniard will likely have to find a way past home favorites Sebastian Korda and Reilly Opelka if he is to set up a clash with either Shapovalov or Khachanov.
Dark horses: Sebastian Korda, Reilly Opelka, Lloyd Harris
First-round match to watch: Karen Khachanov vs Lloyd Harris
Predicted quarterfinal result: Alexander Zverev def. Sebastian Korda
3rd Quarter: Stefanos Tsitsipas wary of opening-round banana skin against Andy Murray
Top seeds: [3] Stefanos Tsitsipas, [5] Andrey Rublev, [12] Felix Auger-Aliassime, [16] Cristian Garin
Expected quarterfinal: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Andrey Rublev
Analysis: Stefanos Tsitsipas shockingly lost the plot while leading by a double break in the Cincinnati semifinals against Alexander Zverev. But despite that, the North American swing has been a success for the Greek thus far.
Tsitsipas will open his US Open campaign against three-time Major winner Andy Murray. Although Murray is a pale shadow of his former all-conquering self, he is still not a player the Greek would want to face so early in a Major.
However, if Tsitsipas beats Murray, his path to the last-eight seems quite straightforward, with the exception of a possible third-round clash against the in-form Cameron Norrie.
Andrey Rublev, meanwhile, will be looking to build on his run to the final in Cincinnati. The Russian opens his US Open campaign against a qualifier. Frances Tiafoe could give Rublev some problems if they meet in the third round, but apart from that the Russian's path to the second week looks straightforward on paper.
This section of the draw also features the enigmatic Aussie Nick Kyrgios. But Kyrgios is currently nursing a knee injury which forced him to pull out of Winston-Salem last week and is low on match practice. It is unlikely he will be able to beat gutsy Spaniard Roberto Bautista Agut in his opening match.
Dark horses: Nick Kyrgios, Frances Tiafoe
First-round matches to watch: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Andy Murray and Nick Kyrgios vs Roberto Bautista Agut
Predicted quarterfinal result: Stefanos Tsitsipas def. Andrey Rublev
4th Quarter: Marin Cilic challenge looms large for Daniil Medvedev after Wimbledon scare
Top seeds: [2] Daniil Medvedev, [8] Casper Ruud, [11] Diego Schwartzman, [15] Grigor Dimitrov
Expected quarterfinal: Daniil Medvedev vs Casper Ruud
Analysis: Daniil Medvedev has established himself as the best hardcourt player on the men's tour after Novak Djokovic. Medvedev won the title in Toronto and went down fighting in the semifinals in Cincinnati.
The 2019 US Open finalist will open his campaign this year against veteran Frenchman Richard Gasquet before a potentially tricky second-round clash against Dominik Koepfer.
Medvedev is likely to face 2014 champion Marin Cilic in the third round. Cilic had Medvedev on the ropes at Wimbledon, leading by two sets before the Russian produced a spectacular comeback to win in five.
Medvedev could face Grigor Dimitrov in the fourth round. The Bulgarian has struggled for form and fitness and is unlikely to pose much of a threat to the Russian.
The other section of this quarter is highlighted by eighth seed Casper Ruud. The Norwegian has made rapid strides on hardcourt this year, but faces a tricky opponent in the shape of veteran Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the first round. If the Frenchman is not troubled by injuries, he could push Ruud to the limit.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is also in this section of the draw and is slated to face Ruud in the third round. The Spaniard defeated Ruud at the French Open and is more than capable of taking down the Norwegian once again.
Diminutive Argentine Diego Schwartzman will also be looking to spring some surprises in this quarter. But he may have to contend with big servers like Kevin Anderson and John Isner en route to the fourth round.
Dark horses: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, Grigor Dimitrov
First-round match to watch: Casper Ruud vs Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
Predicted quarterfinal result: Daniil Medvedev def. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Semifinal predictions
Novak Djokovic def. Alexander Zverev, Daniil Medvedev def. Stefanos Tsitsipas
Prediction for the final
Novak Djokovic def. Daniil Medvedev