US Open 2021: Men's singles forecast and predictions
Novak Djokovic will be aiming for history when he steps on to the Arthur Ashe Arena this week. There's the prospect of an unprecedented 21st Major title, to add to the headline-making opportunity of completing a Calendar Slam. With his two greatest rivals not featuring in this year's edition of the US Open, many believe there is nothing that can keep the Serb from conquering it all.
In reality, however, the strength of the field isn't necessarily determined by the number of Majors the players have won. So while the draw might be deprived of 40 Slams - acquired collectively by Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal - there are still quite a few names who can challenge for the title.
In fact, it is the new generation players that have been the prime challengers to Novak Djokovic in 2021. The quartet of medvedev" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Daniil Medvedev, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Alexander Zverev and Andrey Rublev even contested the semifinals of the recently concluded Cincinnati Masters as the top four seeds.
As an aside, the US Open hasn't been too friendly towards its defending champion in recent times. But Dominic Thiem doesn't have to worry about that as he has already pulled out due to injury. 2016 champion Stan Wawrinka has done the same, while 2014 champion Marin Cilic is a shadow of his former self.
So considering the players that are participating - and the few that aren't - who are the favorites for the title this time around? We have generated a tournament forecast using Elo ratings sourced from Tennis Abstract to answer that question.
Note: The missing Elo scores have been assumed to be 1500.
Quarter-wise forecast for US Open 2021
1st quarter
If a player has won the first three Slams of the season, few would bet against him winning the fourth - especially if he is a 20-time Major champion playing on his favorite surface. Novak Djokovic is the unsurprising favorite from the first quarter of the draw.
But the Serb hasn't had the most promising lead-up to New York. Consecutive losses in the latter stages of the Olympics were followed by an injury-enforced layoff that saw Djokovic miss the Toronto and Cincinnati Masters.
Keeping aside his fitness issues, the 34-year-old enters the US Open with an Elo rating of 2094. Nobody else from his section even scores above 1900.
The favorites from the first quarter to reach the semis are:
- (1) Novak Djokovic: 52.87%
- (6) Matteo Berrettini: 6.86%
- (10) Hubert Hurkacz: 6.05%
- Marton Fucsovics: 5.86%
Author's predicted quarterfinal: Hubert Hurkacz def. Novak Djokovic
2nd quarter
Alexander Zverev headlines the second quarter of the draw. The German is currently riding his most impressive streak of wins, having won the Olympic gold and the Cincinnati Masters in succession. And it's not merely through the number of wins that he has impressed; he has also made people sit up and take notice through the quality of his performances.
Zverev has been hitting through opponents of the highest pedigree over the last month or so. In the only two matches where his back was against the wall - against Novak Djokovic at Tokyo and Stefanos Tsitsipas at Cincinnati - the 24-year-old took on the role of the aggressor to get over the finish line.
A finalist from last year, Zverev enters this edition of the US Open with an Elo rating of 2062.
The favorites from the second quarter to reach the semis are:
- (4) Alexander Zverev: 43.34%
- (9) Pablo Carreno Busta: 15.40%
- (13) Jannik Sinner: 12.30%
- (25) Karen Khachanov: 6.46%
Author's predicted quarterfinal: Alexander Zverev def. Pablo Carreno Busta
3rd quarter
The third quarter features the man with the most tour-level wins in 2021 - Stefanos Tsitsipas. The Greek sensation is putting together a career-defining season, to say the least. Had it not been for Novak Djokovic monopolizing the Slams, Tsitsipas would be leading the Race to Turin.
Aftera stellar clay season, Tsitsipas struggled at Wimbledon and the Olympics. But the US Open series has helped the 23-year-old rediscover his consistency; he made the semifinals in both Toronto and Cincinnati.
Tsitsipas enters New York with an Elo score of 2011. However, he has Andrey Rublev breathing down his neck.
The Russian has been supremely impressive himself and is coming off a runner-up run at Cincinnati.
Moreover, Rublev is facing a qualifier in the first round whose rating has been assumed to be at 1500. On paper, therefore, he is the greater favorite than Tsitsipas to make the final four from the third quarter of the draw - despite having a slightly lower Elo rating (1999) than the Greek.
The favorites from the third quarter to reach the semis are:
- (5) Andrey Rublev: 33.32%
- (3) Stefanos Tsitsipas: 28.08%
- Ugo Humbert: 6.94%
- (12) Felix Auger-Aliassime: 6.70%
Author's predicted quarterfinal: Andrey Rublev def. Stefanos Tsitsipas
4th quarter
Second seed Daniil Medvedev is the undisputed favorite from the fourth quarter of the draw. Having won Toronto and made the semifinals at Cincinnati, the 25-year-old has earned the most points from this year's US Open Series.
Medvedev's hardcourt prowess needs no introduction. With an Elo score of 2087, the Russian enters the US Open nearly as much a favorite as Novak Djokovic himself.
A finalist in 2019 and a semifinalist last year, Medvedev probably considers New York his favorite Grand Slam venue. He is also the runner-up from this year's other hardcourt Major - the Australian Open.
Like Djokovic, Medvedev doesn't have any 1900+ rated players from his section of the draw either.
The favorites from the fourth quarter to reach the semis are:
- (2) Daniil Medvedev: 50.98%
- (8) Casper Ruud: 11.34%
- (19) John Isner: 7.78%
- (15) Grigor Dimitrov: 5.26%
Author's predicted quarterfinal: Daniil Medvedev def. Casper Ruud
US Open 2021 semifinals and final forecast
From the top half, the most likely US Open finalists are:
- (1) Novak Djokovic: 36.22%
- (4) Alexander Zverev: 26.81%
- (9) Pablo Carreno Busta: 7.19%
- (13) Jannik Sinner: 5.01%
Author's predicted semifinal: Alexander Zverev def. Hubert Hurkacz
From the bottom half, the most likely US Open finalists are:
- (2) Daniil Medvedev: 35.91%
- (5) Andrey Rublev: 18.56%
- (3) Stefanos Tsitsipas: 16.05%
- (8) Casper Ruud: 4.67%
Author's predicted semifinal: Daniil Medvedev def. Andrey Rublev
The most likely champions for US Open 2021 are:
- (1) Novak Djokovic: 23.37%
- (2) Daniil Medvedev: 22.01%
- (4) Alexander Zverev: 16.23%
- (5) Andrey Rublev: 9.29%
- (3) Stefanos Tsitsipas: 8.28%
- (9) Pablo Carreno Busta: 3.19%
- (13) Jannik Sinner: 1.91%
- (8) Casper Ruud: 1.51%
Author's predicted final: Daniil Medvedev def. Alexander Zverev