US Open 2024 Day 5: Women's singles predictions ft. Madison Keys vs Elise Mertens, Zheng Qinwen vs Jule Niemeier
Day 5 of the US Open 2024 will mark the start of the third-round matches. After a tough opening-round bout against Kamila Rakhimova, top seed Iga Swiatek raced into the third round with a 6-0, 6-1 win over Ena Shibahara. World No. 4 Elena Rybakina surprised everyone as she withdrew from the tournament due to an injury.
Jessica Pegula downed Sofia Kenin in straight sets, while Karolina Muchova brought an end to four-time Major champion Naomi Osaka's campaign after beating her 6-3, 7-6 (5). Former World No. 1 Karolina Pliskova played only three points before throwing in the towel against Jasmine Paolini, who thus advanced to the third round.
Players in the bottom half of the draw, led by Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff, will be in action on Friday. On that note, here's a look at the predictions for a few key matches lined up on Day 5 of the US Open:
#1 - Madison Keys vs Elise Mertens
Keys didn't get a lot of match prep on hardcourts before the US Open as she retired from her only match at the Canadian Open in the third set. While she has competed with a tape around her thigh, the injury hasn't bothered her too much here.
Keys handed Katerina Siniakova a 6-4, 6-1 loss in the first round, and followed it up with a 6-4, 6-0 win over Maya Joint. Mertens rallied from a set down to beat her former doubles partner Veronika Kudermetova 3-6, 6-4, 6-3 in her opener, and easily defeated Ajla Tomljanovic 6-3, 6-2 in the next round.
Keys leads Mertens 3-1 in the head-to-head. The former won their pair's first three matches in straight sets, including one at the US Open in 2017, when she made the final. The Belgian won their most recent encounter at last year's Cincinnati Open in three sets.
Both have a good track record at the venue. As stated above, Keys is a former finalist here, while Mertens is a two-time quarterfinalist. However, the American's hard-hitting game has overwhelmed the Belgian quite easily in the past, and she could do the same yet again given how she has played this week.
Predicted winner: Madison Keys
#2 - Victoria Azarenka vs Wang Yafan
Azarenka staged a comeback to beat qualifier Yuliia Starodubtseva 3-6, 6-1, 6-1 in the first round. She was bogged down by migraines in the second round but powered through it to defeat Clara Burel 6-1, 6-4.
Wang took the opening set against ninth seed Maria Sakkari 6-2, after which the latter retired, thus sending her into the second round. She got the better of Diane Parry in straight sets to reach the third round of the US Open for the first time.
Azarenka is a three-time finalist in New York, reaching the summit clash in 2012, 2013, and 2020. She lost the first two finals to Serena Williams, and her most recent one to Osaka.
Azarenka recently beat Wang in three sets at the Citi Open a few weeks ago. The latter gave a good account of herself back then despite coming up short, and depending on the former's health situation, could one-up her rival this time.
Predicted winner: Wang Yafan
#3 - Zheng Qinwen vs Jule Niemeier
Zheng has been pushed to the brink in both of her matches at the US Open so far. She staged a comeback to beat Amanda Anisimova 4-6, 6-4, 6-2 in the first round, and did the same against Erika Andreeva for a 6-7 (3), 6-1, 6-2 win.
Niemeier upset 32nd seed Dayana Yastremska in the first round, beating her 6-4, 6-7 (3), 6-4. She had an easier time in the second round and dropped only four games against Moyuka Uchijima. This is her best result at a Major this year.
Niemeier reached the fourth round of the US Open on her debut two years ago, and then bowed out in the qualifying rounds last year. Zheng, meanwhile, has only improved her results here. She made the third round in 2022, and advanced to the quarterfinals last year.
Niemeier has a competitive 4-5 record against top-10 players. While she hasn't won three main draw matches in a row this year, she certainly has the game to do so. However, Zheng has also shown that she's not going to fold easily. Having already staged a couple of comebacks, she could do it yet again if the need arises against the German.
Predicted winner: Zheng Qinwen