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US Open 2024: Jasmine Paolini vs Karolina Muchova preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds, and pick

Match Details

Fixture: (5) Jasmine Paolini vs Karolina Muchova

Date: September 2, 2024

Tournament: US Open 2024

Round: Fourth Round (Round of 16)

Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, New York, USA

Category: Grand Slam

Surface: Hard

Prize Money: $75,000,000

Live Telecast: USA - ESPN | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN, RDS


Jasmine Paolini vs Karolina Muchova preview

Jasmine Paolini at the US Open 2024. (Photo: Getty)
Jasmine Paolini at the US Open 2024. (Photo: Getty)

World No. 5 Jasmine Paolini will take on Karolina Muchova in the fourth round of the US Open 2024.

Paolini was drawn against former US Open champion Bianca Andreescu in the first round. She rallied from a set down to beat her 6-7 (5), 6-2, 6-4, her third win over her at a Major this year. Karolina Pliskova unfortunately injured herself just minutes into their second-round match and had to retire, thus sending the Italian into the third round.

Paolini was up against 30th seed Yulia Putintseva for a spot in the fourth round. The Italian led by a break twice in the first set, though her lead was cut down to size by her opponent on both occasions. She broke the Kazakh's serve once again in the eighth game to go 5-3 up.

Paolini didn't squander the lead this time and closed out the set in the following game to race ahead. She broke Putintseva's serve at the start of the second set and maintained the headstart until the end to register a 6-3, 6-4 victory.

Muchova beat Katie Volynets 6-3, 7-5 in her opener. She defeated four-time Major champion Naomi Osaka 6-3, 7-6 (5) in the second round to set up a third-round date against Anastasia Potapova.

Muchova was the first to face break points in the opening set but fended them off to remain steady on serve. Potapova's missed chances came back to haunt her as the Czech broke her serve in the very next game to go 3-2 up.

The former French Open finalist then held a set point on her opponent's serve at 5-3 but couldn't convert. Nevertheless, she closed out the set herself in the next game to take a one-set lead.

Muchova bagged five games in a row in the second set, and Potapova saved three match points to stop the losing skid and make it 5-2. It only delayed the inevitable as the Czech wrapped up the proceedings in the next game for a 6-4, 6-2 win.


Jasmine Paolini vs Karolina Muchova head-to-head

Muchova leads Paolini 1-0 in main draw matches at the WTA level. She won their previous encounter at the Gippsland Trophy 2021 in three sets.


Jasmine Paolini vs Karolina Muchova odds

PlayerMoneylineHandicap BetsTotal Games
Jasmine Paolini
+105
-1.5 (+210)
Over 21.5 (-130)
Karolina Muchova
-135
+1.5 (-350)
Under 21.5 (-110)

(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)


Jasmine Paolini vs Karolina Muchova prediction

Karolina Muchova at the US Open 2024. (Photo: Getty)
Karolina Muchova at the US Open 2024. (Photo: Getty)

Paolini's win over Putintseva made her only the second woman to reach the second week of all Majors this season, with Coco Gauff being the other. The Italian made the fourth round of the Australian Open, as well as the finals of the French Open and Wimbledon. She had never made it past the second round of a Major before this year.

Muchova missed the first half of the season due to an injury, and her comeback has been slowly garnering some pace. She reached the final in Palermo and has now made the fourth round here. She was a semifinalist in New York last year, going down to eventual champion Gauff.

Paolini's breakthrough season has seen her reach new highs. She will be the favorite in this match-up based on her results this year. However, Muchova is a tough nut to crack. She's yet to drop a set this week, and her all-court game could potentially help her sneak past the Italian in the end.

Pick: Karolina Muchova to win in three sets.

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