US Open 2024: Men's singles draw analysis, preview and prediction ft. potential Novak Djokovic-Ben Shelton 4R, Carlos Alcaraz-Jannik Sinner SF
The men's singles draw of the 2024 US Open (August 26-September 8) was unveiled on Thursday, August 22. We are in for two weeks of high-octane tennis action.
World No. 1 Jannik Sinner enters the final Grand Slam of the year as the top seed, fueled by a stellar season that includes five title wins. The Italian will be aiming to capture his second Major at the tournament.
Defending champion Novak Djokovic, along with Carlos Alcaraz, Alexander Zverev, and Daniil Medvedev, round out the top five seeds. Each of these players presents a formidable challenge in the quest to lift the trophy at Flushing Meadows.
The first round promises plenty of excitement, with matchups like Tommy Paul vs Lorenzo Sonego, Ben Shelton vs Dominic Thiem, Reilly Opelka vs Lorenzo Musetti, Brandon Nakashima vs Holger Rune, and Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Thanasi Kokkinakis, among others.
With that in mind, let's dive into how the men's singles draw of the 2024 US Open might unfold over the fortnight.
First Quarter: Jannik Sinner to go all the way to win maiden US Open title
Seeded Players: (1) Jannik Sinner, (5) Daniil Medvedev, (11) Stefanos Tsitsipas, (14) Tommy Paul, (19) Felix Auger-Aliassime, (24) Arthur Fils, (26) Nicolas Jarry, (31) Flavio Cobolli
Expected Quarterfinal: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev
Dark Horse: Nuno Borges
Analysis: The first quarter of the draw is packed with big names, with Jannik Sinner taking center stage. The Italian has enjoyed one of the best seasons of his career, highlighted by his maiden Grand Slam victory at the Australian Open in January. He enters the US Open riding a wave of confidence after his recent ATP Masters 1000 title win in Cincinnati.
Sinner will kick off his campaign in New York against Mackenzie McDonald, followed by a possible encounter with Alex Michelsen. If the World No. 1 advances, he could face either Nicolas Jarry or Stan Wawrinka in the next round, with a potential fourth-round showdown against Tommy Paul on the horizon.
In the quarterfinals, Sinner might go up against fifth seed Medvedev, who could reach that stage after potential wins over Dusan Lajovic, Fabian Marozsan, Flavio Cobolli, and Stefanos Tsitsipas/Felix Auger-Aliassime.
A potential clash between Jannik Sinner and Daniil Medvedev in the last eight promises to be thrilling. The two have met 12 times on the ATP Tour, with the Russian holding a 7-5 head-to-head edge. However, given the 23-year-old's impressive form this season, he might just turn the tide and secure a spot in the semifinals.
Quarterfinal Prediction: Sinner def. Medvedev
Second Quarter: Carlos Alcaraz eyes 3rd Grand Slam win of 2024
Seeded Players: (3) Carlos Alcaraz, (7) Hubert Hurkacz, (10) Alex de Minaur, (16) Sebastian Korda, (22) Alejandro Tabilo, (23) Karen Khachanov, (25) Jack Draper, (30) Matteo Arnaldi
Expected Quarterfinal: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex de Minaur
Dark Horse: Tomas Machac
Analysis: 2022 US Open champion Carlos Alcaraz will look to secure his third Grand Slam title of the year, following victories at the French Open and Wimbledon. He will kick off his campaign against a qualifier and could face either Denis Shapovalov or Botic van de Zandschulp in the subsequent round.
If Alcaraz progresses past that stage, he is likely to face 25th seed Jack Draper in the third round, with a potential fourth-round matchup against home favorite and 16th seed Sebastian Korda.
Although Korda is a formidable hardcourt player and shouldn't be underestimated, Alcaraz will likely set up a quarterfinal showdown with either Alex de Minaur. The Aussie is expected to arrive in the last eight after potential victories over Marcos Giron, 23rd seed Karen Khachanov, and seventh seed Hubert Hurkacz.
Alcaraz and De Minaur have faced each other twice on the court, with the former winning both encounters. Given their past meetings, it’s likely that the Spaniard will continue his winning streak and advance to the semifinals with relative ease.
Quarterfinal Prediction: Alcaraz def. De Minaur
Third Quarter: Alexander Zverev and Casper Ruud could lock horns in QF
Seeded Players: (4) Alexander Zverev, (8) Casper Ruud, (12) Taylor Fritz, (15) Holger Rune, (17) Ugo Humbert, (18) Lorenzo Musetti, (27) Alexander Bublik, (29) Francisco Cerundolo
Expected Quarterfinal: Alexander Zverev vs Casper Ruud
Dark Horse: Reilly Opelka
Analysis: This quarter is loaded with stars, including Alexander Zverev, Casper Ruud, Taylor Fritz, Matteo Berrettini, Holger Rune, and Reilly Opelka. Among them, Zverev and Ruud are the frontrunners expected to meet in the quarterfinals.
Fourth seed Zverev is one of the favorites to win the 2024 US Open. He will kick off his campaign against Emil Ruusuvuori, followed by a likely second-round matchup with Alexandre Muller. In the third round, the German could face 29th seed Francisco Cerundolo, with a potential showdown against Holger Rune in the fourth round.
Meanwhile, Casper Ruud's path to the quarterfinals could involve facing Gael Monfils, 27th seed Alexander Bublik, and 12th seed Taylor Fritz/Matteo Berrettini/17th seed Ugo Humbert.
Ruud, a former tournament finalist in 2022, brings valuable experience, while Zverev is in excellent form this season, having reached the French Open final. Both are strong contenders, but if we had to choose, the German seems poised to edge past the Norwegian and advance to the semifinals.
Quarterfinal Prediction: Zverev def. Ruud
Fourth Quarter: Novak Djokovic vs Ben Shelton makes for a thrilling 4R clash
Seeded Players: (2) Novak Djokovic, (6) Andrey Rublev, (9) Grigor Dimitrov, (13) Ben Shelton, (20) Frances Tiafoe, (21) Sebastian Baez, (28) Alexei Popyrin, (32) Jiri Lehecka
Expected Quarterfinal: Novak Djokovic vs Andrey Rublev
Dark Horse: Dominic Thiem
Analysis: Defending US Open champion Novak Djokovic finds himself in this quarter of the draw and appears to be in great form, having recently secured a men's singles gold medal at the Paris Olympics. The Serb will begin his campaign against a qualifier before possibly facing Jan-Lennard Struff in the next round.
Djokovic is expected to face 28th seed Alexei Popyrin next, followed by a highly anticipated matchup against 13th seed Ben Shelton. This could be one of the highlights of this year's tournament, especially given their controversial semifinal encounter at last year's edition.
If the 24-time Grand Slam champion overcomes Shelton, he is likely to face sixth seed Andrey Rublev in the quarterfinals. The Russian would enter the match after potential victories over Thiago Seyboth Wild, Christopher Eubanks, Jiri Lehecka, and Grigor Dimitrov.
While age could be a factor for Novak Djokovic in this matchup, if the 37-year-old remains calm and composed, he should have no trouble defeating Andrey Rublev and securing a spot in the semifinals of the 2024 US Open.
Quarterfinal Prediction: Djokovic def. Rublev
Semifinal predictions
Carlos Alcaraz def. Jannik Sinner
Novak Djokovic def. Alexander Zverev
Prediction for the final
Novak Djokovic def. Carlos Alcaraz