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US Open 2024: Naomi Osaka vs Karolina Muchova preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick

Match Details

Fixture: (WC) Naomi Osaka vs Karolina Muchova

Date: August 29, 2024

Tournament: US Open 2024

Round: Second Round (Round of 64)

Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, New York, U.S.

Category: Grand Slam

Surface: Hard

Prize Money: $75,000,000

Live Telecast: USA - ESPN | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN, RDS | India - Sony Network

Naomi Osaka vs Karolina Muchova preview

Naomi Osaka in action at the 2024 US Open (Picture: Getty)
Naomi Osaka in action at the 2024 US Open (Picture: Getty)

Two-time US Open champion Naomi Osaka will square off against Karolina Muchova in a highly anticipated second-round encounter on Thursday, August 29.

Osaka entered the US Open with an 18-15 singles record for the season. She made her return to the tour at the start of the year in Brisbane following the birth of her daughter Shai.

The former World No. 1 began her US Open campaign against tenth seed Jelena Ostapenko. Both players started well on serve, but it was Osaka who broke first in the eighth game and then served out the set in the following game.

Osaka continued strongly in the second set, breaking Ostapenko's serve in the very first game. She added another break in the seventh game with some powerful baseline play, ultimately sealing a surprising 6-3, 6-2 victory.

Muchova entered the US Open with a 7-3 win-loss record for the 2024 season. The Czech missed the first half of the year due to wrist surgery, which she sustained at the end of last year. She made her competitive return to the tour in Eastbourne, reaching the quarterfinals.

Muchova began her campaign in New York against home favorite Katie Volynets. She secured the first set with a break of serve in the fourth game, thanks to a series of unforced errors from Volynets. The second set was much closer, with both players trading a couple of breaks of serve. A crucial break in the eleventh game went in Muchova's favor, allowing her to secure an emphatic 6-3, 7-5 victory.


Naomi Osaka vs Karolina Muchova head-to-head

Naomi Osaka and Karolina Muchova split their head-to-head evenly at 1-1. Both their encounters went the distance, with Osaka coming out on top in the first one at the 2020 Western & Southern Open and Muchova winning the second at the 2021 Madrid Open.


Naomi Osaka vs Karolina Muchova odds

PlayerMoneylineHandicap BetsTotal Games
Naomi Osaka -150-1.5 (+150)Over 21.5 (-135)
Karolina Muchova+115+1.5 (-225)Under 21.5 (-110)

All odds sourced from BETMGM.


Naomi Osaka vs Karolina Muchova prediction

Karolina Muchova practices ahead of the 2024 US Open (Picture: Getty)
Karolina Muchova practices ahead of the 2024 US Open (Picture: Getty)

Naomi Osaka excelled in every department en route to her emphatic victory over 10th seed Jelena Ostapenko in the first round. She was dominant on serve, winning an impressive 80% of points on her first serve and 75% on her second. She also hit 9 aces and committed no double faults. Her break point conversion rate was flawless, as she converted all 3 of the opportunities she had.

Muchova also impressed in her opener, especially with her return game and net play. She won 49% of receiving points and converted 5 of the 7 break-point opportunities she had. Her aggressive play frequently took her to the net, where she won an impressive 82% of points. She was also fearless with her shots, accumulating 30 winners out of a total of 73 points won.

While a tight match is expected between the pair, Osaka could edge out Muchova due to her superior record at the US Open and on hard courts in general. If she maintains her current form, a deep run in the tournament is highly likely for the Japanese star.

Pick: Osaka in straight sets.

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