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US Open 2024 QF: Jessica Pegula vs Iga Swiatek preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick

Match Details

Fixture: (6) Jessica Pegula vs (1) Iga Swiatek

Date: September 4, 2024

Tournament: US Open 2024

Round: Quarterfinal

Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, New York, U.S.A.

Category: Grand Slam

Surface: Hard

Prize Money: $75,000,000

Live Telecast: USA - ESPN | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN, RDS | India - Sony Network

Jessica Pegula vs Iga Swiatek preview

Jessica Pegula in action on day 8 at the 2024 US Open (Picture: Getty)
Jessica Pegula in action on day 8 at the 2024 US Open (Picture: Getty)

Sixth seed and home favorite Jessica Pegula will square off against top seed Iga Swiatek in a mouth-watering quarterfinals clash at the 2024 US Open on Wednesday, September 4.

Pegula has been in scintillating form so far in the 'Big Apple,' having yet to drop a set this fortnight. She opened her account with a 6-4, 6-3 victory over compatriot Shelby Rogers in the first round. In the second round, she defeated good friend and former Grand Slam champion Sofia Kenin by a 7-6(4), 6-3 scoreline. Facing Jessica Bouzas Maneiro in the third round, the American secured another straightforward win with a 6-3, 6-3 scoreline.

Pegula faced the in-form Russian youngster Diana Shnaider in the fourth round. The pair traded breaks early in the first set before Pegula gained the upper hand in the fifth game. She broke Shnaider again in her next service game to take a 5-2 lead but stumbled when serving for the set. She managed to close it out on the second time of asking, however, and even saved a break point while doing so. The second set was more straightforward, with the sixth seed taking it 6-2.

Swiatek, like Pegula, has yet to drop a set this week and has been in excellent form despite a somewhat disappointing lead-up to the New York major. She began her campaign with a challenging 6-4, 7-6(6) victory over Kamilla Rakhimova in the first round. She then comfortably defeated Ena Shibahara 6-0, 6-1 in the second round. Swiatek maintained her winning momentum in the third round, where she secured a straightforward 6-4, 6-1 win against 25th seed Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova.

Swiatek faced 16th seed Liudmila Samsonova in the fourth round. She navigated through a challenging first set, with a single break of serve proving to be the decisive factor as she served out the set. She was much more descsive in the second, dominating Samsonova from the baseline en route to securing an emphatic 6-4, 6-1 victory.

Jessica Pegula vs Iga Swiatek head-to-head

Iga Swiatek leads Jessica Pegula 6-3 in their head-to-head, and 5-3 in their matchups on hardcourts. The Pole also won their previous encounter 6-1, 6-0 in the summit clash of the WTA Finals last year.

Jessica Pegula vs Iga Swiatek odds

PlayerMoneylineHandicap BetsTotal Games
Jessica Pegula+275-1.5 (+475)Over 22.5 (+125)
Iga Swiatek-350+1.5 (-1100)Under 22.5 (-185)

(Odds sourced from BetMGM)

Jessica Pegula vs Iga Swiatek prediction

Iga Swiatek in action on day 8 at the 2024 US Open (Picture: Getty)
Iga Swiatek in action on day 8 at the 2024 US Open (Picture: Getty)

Jessica Pegula heads into her quarterfinal encounter on the back of strong recent form on American hardcourts. She has been an imposing presence from the baseline and has confidently attacked the net, reaping significant rewards when doing so. Her serving has also been excellent, with an impressive 80% win rate on her first serve in her previous match. Additionally, Pegula has been highly dominant on return, winning 49% of receiving points and converting five out of 10 break point opportunities in her last encounter.

Swiatek has also been outstanding in New York so far. She's powered through her draw on the back of some commanding baseline play combined with impressive efficiency at the net, winning 83% of the points when coming forward. Her serve has also been exceptional, with an impressive 88% win rate on her first serve and three aces in her previous match. She has also won 45% of her receiving points. However, her winners-to-unforced-errors ratio could use some improvement.

Swiatek heads into this encounter the slight favorite given her superior record against Pegula, her record at Flushing Meadows, and on the hardcourts so far this year. Pegula, who's yet to make it past the quarterfinals here, has been in the best form yet at this point and cannot be counted out. A tantalizing encounter awaits fans with the winner going to be decided by whoever serves better and makes early inroads on the return.

Swiatek heads into this encounter as the slight favorite, given her superior head-to-head record against Pegula, success at Flushing Meadows, and on the hardcourts this year. The Pole has won two hardcourt titles this year and five overall in comparison to Pegula who's won one hardcourt title and two overall.

Pegula, who has yet to advance past the quarterfinals here, is in the best form of her career and cannot be discounted. Fans are in for a tantalizing match, with the winner likely to be determined by who serves better and makes early inroads on return.

Pick: Swiatek in three sets.

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