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US Open men's quarterfinals preview: Part 1

Another year, another example of the US Open’s inability to deal with the elements. With rain washing out a considerable part of the action yesterday, three of the men’s 4th round matches have been carried forward to today, which means that we don’t know the full quarterfinal lineup yet. What it also means, of course, is that Novak Djokovic, Stanislas Wawrinka, Juan Martin Del Potro, Andy Roddick, Janko Tipsarevic and Philipp Kohlschreiber – the six players whose matches were affected by the rain yesterday – will have to play two five-set matches in the space of two days. The lack of a roof is starting to make the US Open look downright archaic and regressive compared to the rain-ready venues at the other three Slams. But that’s a debate for another day. For now, let us take a look at the two quarterfinal matches that WILL be played today (weather permitting, of course).

Quarterfinal 1: Andy Murray vs Marin Cilic

Head-to-head: Murray leads 6-1

If you didn’t think Murray’s game suffered from bipolar disorder before this tournament, you certainly will think that now. Murray’s play through the first three rounds here alternated between indifferent and awful. But when put on the court against a formidable opponent in the form of gigantic-serving Milos Raonic in the fourth round, his game came alive, and how. The Scot deconstructed the Canadian’s power game with such clinical precision that it seemed to suck all the air out of the court; suddenly, Murray is being considered among the red-hot title favorites all over again.

His opponent today, Marin Cilic, has only won one out of their seven prior encounters, but that sole victory must rank among the most insipid that Murray has ever suffered in his career. When Cilic dusted Murray off in three straightforward sets at this very place, back in 2009, he looked set to join the band of Big Boys at the top of the men’s game, while Murray’s inability to deal with power-hitters at the Slams was dissected with sickening relish.

Things have changed since then, of course – Murray is now a lot more aggressive, and Cilic a lot less confident. But while some things have changed, some others have remained the same – Murray’s level of play continues to oscillate between extremes, while Cilic’s serve and backhand continue to be potent weapons against anyone, on any court. Another thing going in Cilic’s favor is the nature of the wins he has notched up in the tournament so far – he came through back-to-back five-set thrillers in his first two rounds, and then handled Kei Nishikori and Martin Klizan with relative ease in his next two matches.

At the end of the day, though, the match will largely rest on Murray’s racquet; as the premier returner-cum-counterpuncher in the game, he can blunt Cilic’s biggest weapons, and he can also make the tall Croat scamper all around the court with his dazzling array of spins and slices. The question, though, is: which Murray will show up?

Prediction: Murray in 3 or 4 sets

 

Quarterfinal 2: Roger Federer vs Tomas Berdych

Head-to-head: Federer leads 11-4

For what seems like the millionth time, Federer has strolled into the quarterfinals of a Slam with barely a strand of hair out of place. After cruising through the first three rounds, he was given a walkover in the fourth round when Mardy Fish withdrew before taking the court. His quarterfinal streak now stands at 34; after a while, he might be tempted to tank an early round Slam match here and there, just for the kicks.

Tomas Berdych, meanwhile, seems to have forgotten all of his problems from the summer, as he has notched up a bunch of quality wins on his path to the quarters. He had a tough draw, which included matches against David Goffin, Sam Querrey and Nicolas Almagro, but he bludgeoned all of his opponents into submission with his serve and big groundstrokes. The Big Bird has got to be feeling good about his chances to pull off the upset, specially considering how hard-fought his last encounter against Federer was (Federer won that match – the Madrid final – by the scoreline of 3-6, 7-5, 7-5).

Berdych has always been something of a problematic opponent for Federer, because he can take time away from the Swiss in a way that very few other players on the tour can. He can more than hold his own against Federer in long baseline rallies, and he can even match Federer’s serving efficiency; the biggest weapon that Berdych brings to this match-up, however, is his belief that he can beat Federer by playing the match on his terms. Federer will likely try to counter Berdych’s strengths by rushing the net and forcing the issue, and if Federer is executing well, my money is still on him. But I wouldn’t be surprised if the match turns out to be a lot closer than most people expect.

Prediction: Federer in 5 sets

 

 

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