US Open - Serena Williams and the rest? Not really

Serena Williams and Victoria Azarenka

Till last week, the bigger question going into this year’s US Open was not whether Rafael Nadal could sustain his phenomenal hard-court form or if Roger Federer would finally get something out of his wretched season.

Rather, it was whether anyone on the women’s circuit would be able to stop the juggernaut that is Serena Williams, from strolling to her 5th US Open title. Such has been her dominance over her peers on the tour.

Thankfully, we got an answer, if only partly.

Last week, Victoria Azarenka, the world number 2, and perhaps the only woman presently capable of standing toe-to-toe with Williams on any given day, beat the American 2-6,6-2,7-6(5) in the finals of the final tune-up premier event in Cincinnati.

True to the scoreline, the match was a high-quality topsy-turvy affair reminiscent of the final they played last year at the Flushing Meadows. And similar to that match, here also the loser served for the match, only to lose the plot.

In a way, it was strange, for the person to lose the plot here was Serena and you generally do not expect her to lose when the match is on her racket, especially with her outrageous record this year (She is a career-best 60-4 on the tour with 8 YTD titles).

But here is the catch; 2 of those 4 losses have come at the hands of Azarenka, both on hard-courts, and both in finals.

That is not to say that Williams is not the favourite in New York, she is. After all, a few points here and there and it would have been her holding the title.

But unlike the French Open or the Wimbledon, she may not be the odds-on favourite this time.

In Azarenka, she has an opponent who is not intimidated by her, is willing to stand her ground on the baseline, is not afraid of taking her chances and is someone who absolutely thrives on hard-courts.

Despite her depressing H2H record (Aza is 3-13 lifetime against Williams), she knows that Williams is beatable. Remarkably, the duo share a very healthy and respectful rivalry with mutual admiration evident in their conferences, and their match-up (they are deservingly seeded to meet in the finals) is really something to look forward to.

Another factor which stops me from anointing her as a hands-on favorite is that in spite of her remarkable record this year, she has only 1 Grand Slam title to show for, the same as Azarenka and Bartoli, and that was on clay.

In this new avatar though, Serena has been crushing one and all. She has also been more susceptible to coughing up close losses to the Lisickis and Stephens in the Grand Slams.

And when you factor in her indifferent performances at the Open over the years (as incredulous as it may seem in spite of her being a 4-time champion in New York), it is fairly safe to assume that she can be stopped even if someone has to play the match of their lives to do that.