Using competition strength to determine the GOAT: How many Grand Slam finals have Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, and Novak Djokovic reached without facing a top-10 player along the way?
Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, and Roger Federer have for long raised the bar for one another in the all-time Grand Slam title race. The three players with the most men's singles Grand Slam titles in history have all played in the same era and share some of the biggest and toughest achievements of all time.
Nadal holds the most Grand Slam titles and French Opens, while Djokovic holds the lead for most weeks at No. 1 and most Australian Opens. Federer still holds the record for most consecutive weeks as World No. 1 and has won the most Wimbledon titles.
In the last 18 years, 63 out of 75 men's singles Grand Slams have been won by Djokovic, Nadal and Federer.
Truly the GOAT era 🐐 https://t.co/EmVwqN7ETF
For years, different yardsticks have been used in the 'Greatest of All Time' (GOAT) debate to differentiate between the three legendary players. We look at another interesting statistic, that of 'competition strength,' which shows how many times Nadal, Djokovic, and Federer have reached a Grand Slam final without facing even one player ranked in the ATP top 10 at the time.
# Rafael Nadal - 7 Grand Slam finals reached without facing a top-10 player
The Spanish superstar has played 30 Grand Slam finals and reached seven of those without facing a single top-10 player along the way. The first of those was the 2006 Wimbledon campaign, where Nadal defeated the likes of Andre Agassi, Jarkko Nieminen, and Marcos Baghdatis en route to the final (lost to Federer). However, none of those players were ranked inside the top 10.
The Spaniard also faced six players ranked outside the ATP top 10 in his 2008 Wimbledon campaign, which remains one of the most memorable events of his career. He defeated the then World No. 1 Federer in an epic five-setter to win the title. Among his six runs to the Australian Open final, he has faced top-10 players in all but one of those instances - the 2019 edition.
On this day in 2008, Rafael Nadal beat Roger Federer 9-7 in the fifth set to win his first Wimbledon title 👏
14 years later, he is chasing his 23rd Grand Slam title 😮 https://t.co/4afI5rthpA
At the French Open, he reached the final without facing a top-10 player just twice (2010 and 2020), meaning that he has beaten at least one high-ranked player in 12 other runs to the final at Roland Garros. At the 2017 US Open, Juan Martin del Potro (seeded 24th) was the highest-ranked player he faced en route to the title. He also faced six opponents outside the top 10 during his run to the 2019 US Open final, where he beat Daniil Medvedev to lift the title.
# Novak Djokovic - 8 Grand Slam finals reached without facing a top-10 player
Among the Big 3, Novak Djokovic has reached the highest number of Grand Slam finals without facing a single top-10 player along the way. The Serb reached his maiden Grand Slam final at the 2007 US Open, with 15th seed David Ferrer being the highest-ranked player he faced.
Djokovic has reached five of his eight Wimbledon finals without facing a single top-10 player. The Serb went on to win the title in all of those campaigns - the 2011, 2014, 2019, 2021, and 2022 editions. At the recently concluded 2022 Wimbledon Championships, the highest-ranked player Djokovic faced was World No. 12 Cameron Norrie (semifinals).
@Wimbledon)THE point of yesterday by Novak Djokovic ✨
(🎥 @Wimbledon) https://t.co/e4ZaGkYZxU
Apart from the 2007 US Open, the Serbian great also reached the finals of the 2016 and 2018 US Open without facing a top-10 player. He lost the 2016 final to Stan Wawrinka and defeated Del Potro to win the 2018 US Open. Djokovic has faced at least one top-10 player en route to his nine Australian Open finals and six French Open finals.
# Roger Federer - 5 Grand Slam finals reached without facing a top-10 player
Roger Federer has played 31 Grand Slam finals in his career, the second most among the Big 3. Of those, he has reached just five finals without facing a single top-10 player. Like Nadal, Federer also reached the 2008 Wimbledon final without playing against an ATP top-10 player.
Federer has played in 12 Wimbledon finals throughout his career, reaching just three of those without facing a top-10 player. Apart from the 2008 final, he also reached the 2007 and 2009 finals by beating six non-top-10 players in the previous rounds.
At the 2008 French Open, 24th seed Fernando Gonzalez was the highest-ranked player the Swiss great faced before the final. At the 2018 Australian Open, which was his most recent Grand Slam title victory, 19th seed Tomas Berdych was the highest-ranked player Federer faced en route to the title clash.
World No.3
Roger #Federer's 2018 season in figures:
👨🎓 World No.3
👨🎓 Australian Open champion
👨🎓 4 titles
👨🎓 7 finals
👨🎓 48 wins / 10 defeats https://t.co/cI0yuoxvqc
Grand Slam finals reached without facing a top-10 player:
Roger Federer - 2007 Wimbledon, 2008 French Open, 2008 Wimbledon, 2009 Wimbledon, and 2018 Australian Open.
Rafael Nadal - 2006 Wimbledon, 2008 Wimbledon, 2010 French Open, 2017 US Open, 2019 Australian Open, 2019 US Open, and 2020 French Open.
Novak Djokovic - 2007 US Open, 2011 Wimbledon, 2014 Wimbledon, 2016 US Open, 2018 US Open, 2019 Wimbledon, 2021 Wimbledon, and 2022 Wimbledon
Note - All stats sourced from tennisabstract.com