What does Aryna Sabalenka's Wimbledon 2024 withdrawal mean for Iga Swiatek and Coco Gauff?
Aryna Sabalenka announced that she is withdrawing from the 2024 Wimbledon Championships. Her decision will increase the chances of Iga Swiatek and Coco Gauff winning their maiden grass slam.
Aryna Sabalenka had cast doubts about her participation at the Wimbledon Championships before her opening round. She had told the media that her shoulder was causing some problems and she would reassess her physical status before the match. Unfortunately, she could not recover from the shoulder injury and decided against playing at SW19.
Sabalenka reached her second Wimbledon semifinal last year, losing to Ons Jabeur in an intense three-set affair. Her withdrawal has opened up the women's singles draw, at least the bottom half of it, giving many players a chance to make a deep run and even go for glory at the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club.
Coco Gauff benefits more than Iga Swiatek from Aryna Sabalenka's withdrawal
The player who stands to gain the most from Sabalenka's decision is the second seed, Coco Gauff. The American unceremoniously exited last year's Wimbledon in the opening round and is hoping to gain valuable rankings points to secure the World No. 2 spot.
Gauff came to London after a semifinal finish at the WTA 500 ecotrans Ladies Open in Berlin and is in good touch on the grass court. She has already kicked off her campaign this year with a swift 6-1, 6-2 win over compatriot Caroline Dolehide and will now face Romanian qualifier Anca Todoni in the second round.
Her chances improve as she is projected to face either qualifier Sonay Kartal or Clara Burel, No. 19 seed Emma Navarro, No. 7 seed Jasmine Paolini, and No. 9 seed Maria Sakkari en route to the final. All these players do not have a substantial track record at the tournament.
Gauff is also the prime candidate to reach the final for the bottom half after the withdrawals of former semifinalist Victoria Azarenka and Ekaterina Alexandrova, who has two grass-court titles in her career. Daria Kasatkina, reigning champion at WTA 500 Rothesay International (Eastbourne), No. 7 seed Jasmine Paolini, and Madison Keys are now the biggest challengers left in Gauff's half of the draw.
Meanwhile, Aryna Sabalenka's withdrawal does not significantly affect top seed Iga Swiatek's chances of winning Wimbledon. For one, Swiatek is in the top half of the draw, and the likeliness of her facing the Belarusian was in the final. The Pole has not had the best of times on the grass courts of London and exited last year's competition in the quarterfinals.
Swiatek will have her handful of challengers en route to the final. She will begin her campaign against Sofia Kenin and is projected to face Petra Martic, No. 27 seed Katerina Siniakova, No. 13 seed Jelena Ostapenko, defending champion and No. 6 seed Marketa Vondrousova, former champion and No. 4 seed Elena Rybakina before reaching the final.
In addition to the abovementioned players, last year's Ons Jabeur and Elina Svitolina, who defeated Swiatek last year, are also in the Pole's half of the draw.