What to expect heading into the French Open?

This week sees the kick-off of the ATP clay court season with the Monte Carlo master series event starting in the French principality of Monaco. The tennis calendar has already seen one set of clay court events take place – the Latin American golden swing – typically a set of lower-tier ATP events in South America, which were boosted this year by the presence of Rafael Nadal. But Monte Carlo signals the start of the European clay court season and is the first of three ATP Masters series events to be played on clay in the lead up to the French Open which begins in Paris in the last week of May. Here are five storylines to keep an eye out for during the coming eight weeks in the men’s side:

1) Can anyone stop Rafael Nadal from winning another French Open title?

While there may still be some divided opinion on Nadal’s inclusion in the Greatest Player of All Time debate, there is no doubt in anyone’s mind that the Spaniard is the best clay court player in the history of the sport. Nadal has dominated the clay court stretch of the ATP circuit for the past several years like no other before him. The Spaniard, who will turn 27 years old midway through the French Open this year, has played in Paris eight times and won on seven occasions – his only loss coming in the fourth round in 2009 to the forehand of Robin Soderling.

When Nadal missed eight months of the circuit following Wimbledon last June and lost the finals of his first comeback event to unheralded Horacio Zeballos, many of his rivals would have thought perhaps 2013 could be their shot at a Roland Garros title. But since then, Nadal has won three events in a row including the Indian Wells masters title in hardcourts where he beat Federer and Djokovic. Nadal’s biggest threat in the coming weeks is likely to be his own knees. The Spaniard pulled out of the Miami masters in order to rest them and would do good to avoid an exhausting schedule in the lead-up to Paris, especially if he continues to win most of the events he enters on the red dirt. An unprecedented eighth French Open title beckons for the 11 time grand slam champion.

2) Can Novak Djokovic win his first French Open title?

A few weeks ago, Novak Djokovic said his biggest goal this season was to win at Roland Garros – the only slam missing from his resume. If there is anyone who can match Nadal on the red dirt, it is the 25-year-old Serb. But since winning in Australia and Dubai, the Serb has suffered earlier than expected losses in the hardcourt tournaments at Indian Wells and Miami. While he did bounce back with two wins in the Davis Cup last weekend, he also suffered an ankle injury. While tests have shown no long-term or serious injury, Djokovic said he would wait until the last minute to decide whether or not to play in Monte Carlo.

Djokovic has reached the semi-finals in Paris in four of the last six years and made the finals last year for the first time, losing to who else but Nadal. Nadal holds an 11-2 edge in their battles on clay but if the two do meet in the finals in Paris on 9th June, Djokovic will surely have the game to match Nadal on clay. It might just come down to who is the fitter and fresher of the two.

3) What to expect from Andy Murray and Roger Federer?

Murray will come into Paris on the back of his best 12 months in the sport during which he reached the finals at Wimbledon, won the Olympic singles gold medal, his first grand slam at the US Open and reached the finals of the Australian Open. Murray has spaced his schedule well this year, playing only 4 events heading into the clay court stretch and has won 19 of 21 matches. The Scot has reached the quarter finals in Paris in three of the last four years but managed to reach the semi-finals only once. Last year, he did not reach the semi-finals of any of the clay court events he played in. On the back of his successful 12 months, Murray should likely be able to reach another quarter-final in Paris but he will need to play out of his skin and hope some of his top rivals lose early in the event, if he hopes to win the second grand slam of his career in Paris.

Meanwhile, Federer will come into Paris as the biggest unknown quantity among the top four. The Swiss has taken an eight week break from the tour after Indian Wells and hasn’t been in top form this year. Federer is only 13-4 for the year and has failed to reach the finals of any of the events he has played in. Federer has reached the finals in Paris in five of the previous seven years but he is unlikely to make it six in eight. Like another top tennis expert said, Federer is a contender at every tournament he plays in these days but a favourite at none.

4) Can anyone from the Small Four make an impact?

On paper, the second tier in men’s tennis currently consisting of David Ferrer, Tomas Berdych, Juan Martin del Potro and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga are as strong as the second tier in any other era. But the four have only one grand slam title between them and just three final appearances. While they have been able to knock off one of the Big Four in recent years, they have not been able to go through all the way and win at the slams and the masters often enough.

Ferrer’s baseline grinding game should have served him well on the clay but in 10 appearances in Paris, he has only 2 quarter finals and 1 semi-final (in 2012) to show. He has already withdrawn from Monte Carlo due to a thigh injury but his biggest stumbling block in Paris could be his belief that he is not at the same level as the Big Four in the game.

Berdych’s big hitting game serves him better on the faster surfaces and that shows in his 13-9 record in Paris (one semi-final in 2010); Potro is only 12-6 in Paris with one semi-final appearance but he is unlikely to have the fitness required to last seven best-of-five set matches on clay; and Tsonga is 12-5 lifetime in Paris with only one quarter-final appearance. The Frenchman will have the to deal with the additional pressure of being the home favourite and while his new coach Roger Rasheed has been making changes to his game in order to help him win a slam title, it’s highly unlikely that it will come in Paris.

5) Who will be this season’s breakout star?

The clay court season has often thrown up a breakout star – think Gustavo Kuerten in 1997 or Robin Soderling in 2009. With the Europeans and South Americans learning to play on clay, there are a number of players who could possibly break out at any given event. Maybe Milos Roanic, Jerzy Janowicz, Grigor Dimitrov or Ernests Gulbis will make further inroads to the top 10 or perhaps veterans such as Nicolas Almagro, Juan Monaco or Tommy Haas could surprise us with some big results as well.

Whichever of these happen or not, the one thing we can surely expect in the next eight weeks is long baseline rallies and plenty of exciting tennis! Ladies and Gentlemen, play is about to begin.