Why this may be Rafael Nadal's best but last chance to win the Paris Masters
Rafael Nadal has won a staggering 13 titles at one of the big events held in Paris - the French Open. But at the other (admittedly smaller) event, the Paris-Bercy Masters, Nadal is yet to win even once.
The Spaniard's historic 13th Roland Garros title last month enabled him to equal Roger Federer's Grand Slam all-time Slam record of 20. Nadal also maintained his World No. 2 position by virtue of that run, breaking yet another record - for most consecutive weeks spent in the top 10 of the world rankings.
But despite the impressive records that Rafael Nadal has accumulated throughout his career, one aspect of the game has always been a problem for him - indoor hardcourts. The 34-year-old has mustered only one title on the surface (Madrid 2005), and is yet to win the season-ending ATP Finals.
Will 2020 continue see that barren run continue? Many believe it will not. In fact, many believe 2020 is actually Rafael Nadal's best - and possibly last - chance to win major silverware on indoor hardcourts.
And the first of those chances will come at this week's Rolex Paris Masters.
Rafael Nadal has an aggressive playing style now, and is coming in without any injury concerns
Rafael Nadal is at his best when the elements of nature boost the effect of the work he puts into the ball, adding both pace and height to his shots. That in turn helps Nadal set the tempo of the rallies, and open up court space to maneuver his opponents out of position.
But the fast-paced indoor hardcourts don't let the Spaniard's topspin-laden groundstrokes flourish the way surfaces like clay do. The super-controlled conditions blunt Nadal's strengths, especially his defense, and allow flat hitters to get the better of him in short exchanges.
However, ever since Carlos Moya joined his coaching team in 2017, Rafael Nadal has reinvented certain aspects of his play. He can now turn on the aggression much more easily, standing close to the baseline and unleashing a slew of flat bullets himself.
The Spaniard has also developed his unorthodox lefty serve to help him win more cheap points. His net approaches have increased exponentially too, allowing him to shorten the rallies whenever possible.
Rafael Nadal's newfound aggression has helped him end points, and in turn matches, much quicker than his usual laborious ways. And it is this ability to constantly improve his game that has helped him find a second wind and continue winning titles even as he approaches his mid-30s.
But the titles at Paris-Bercy and London have still eluded him, primarily because of the fatigue factor. The incredible physical strain that Rafael Nadal undergoes throughout the season means that he usually arrives in Paris tired and broken - which has been the case every year since Moya took over.
Despite being ranked the year-end World No. 1 twice in the last three years, the Spaniard hasn't finished the Paris Masters even once during this period. Nadal didn't participate in the tournament at all in 2018, due to an abdominal injury. And in both 2017 and 2019, he withdrew mid-tournament due to separate injury concerns.
This year's edition of the Paris Masters, however, serves up something entirely different for the Spaniard. He enters the tournament completely healthy, having played just five tournaments all year, and is clearly not dealing with any injury or fatigue concerns.
The COVID-19 pandemic has been terrible for the entire world in countless ways. But in one aspect - keeping Rafael Nadal fresh until the end of the season - it has been a bit of a blessing in disguise.
Rafael Nadal has a relatively favorable draw this year, with Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer and Dominic Thiem all missing
Rafael Nadal's record at the Paris Masters is not exactly poor. He reached the final in 2007 (losing in straight sets to David Nalbandian), and has made the semifinals in three other years - 2009, 2013 and 2019.
One of the reasons Nadal hasn't won Paris despite playing reasonably well has been that he has often run into an in-form opponent at the business end of the tournament. Aside from his 2007 loss to the hot-hitting Nalbandian, Nadal has also been beaten by Novak Djokovic in the 2009 semifinals and by David Ferrer in the 2013 semis.
This time out, however, Rafael Nadal not only looks fitter but is also set to play a much weaker field than before. The COVID-19 pandemic has seen many abrupt scheduling changes and late withdrawals, perhaps more so at Paris-Bercy than anywhere else.
With no points to gain, Novak Djokovic decided to skip Paris and fight for 500 points in Vienna instead. World No. 3 Dominic Thiem has also withdrawn following a foot injury sustained in the quarterfinal of the Vienna Open. And with Roger Federer missing from the tour since the Australian Open, Nadal is the only player from the world's top 5 in the main draw.
The 20-time Grand Slam champion has also been handed quite a favorable draw in the French capital. Aside from a potentially tricky third-round encounter against Borna Coric, he is unlikely to be tested before the semifinal - where he could face fifth seed Andrey Rublev.
Rublev is the most prolific player of the year on the men's tour, having won five titles - two of which have come on indoor hardcourts over the last month. But that also means the Russian has played a lot of matches lately; it remains to be seen whether he will have enough energy to beat Nadal even if he does get to the semis.
With a manageable draw and no fitness concerns, this could be the best opportunity Rafael Nadal has ever had to get his first title at the Paris Masters. But looking at the big picture, it could also be his last opportunity; it is unlikely that he will ever again come into Paris so fresh, or that the tournament will ever again be so devoid of big names.
Is this finally Rafael Nadal's year at Bercy? If it does indeed turn out to be so, the win will also set him up perfectly for another first - capturing the Nitto ATP Finals trophy in two weeks' time.