Why Novak Djokovic can win the French Open this year
Novak Djokovic is closing in on the records held by the biggest names in the history of the sport and there seems to be no stopping him. The level at which Novak has been playing is perhaps unprecedented. To get a measure of this man's dominance consider this statistic. Even if we combine the ranking points of World number 2, Andy Murray (8435) and World number 3, Roger Federer (7015) we fall short by 700 points to get to the Serbian's daunting 16150 points. Such is his dominance.
Last week, however, Novak found himself in an unfamiliar territory. He was on the losing side of a match against Andy Murray. This was his first loss to Andy on a clay court. As Novak went out in straight sets losing 6-3 6-3 in the Rome finals, the amount of shock and disbelief that gripped the tennis world only showcases how commanding Novak has been in last 2-3 years.
With Andy winning the match in straight sets and Novak looking nowhere near his best, the speculation of Novak losing out on another French Open title in a few weeks time seems inevitable. The elusive French Open title has haunted Novak for years and many predict this year will be no different.
However, if you broaden your perspective you will realise that despite the blip in his momentum, Novak is still the favourite to win at the Court Philippe Chatrier. He has been in the finals 3 times in last four years and has added 7 more Grand Slam titles to his name in the same time frame.
Even though he is yet to win the French Open, his stats on clay have improved over the years. The following table summarises some of the key factors in his game and their improvement on clay over the years:
Attribute | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 |
First Serve Points won | 72% | 71% | 72% | 75% |
Second Serve points won | 55% | 58% | 57% | 60% |
Break Points saved | 55% | 59% | 58% | 71% |
Service Games won | 81% | 83% | 83% | 91% |
1st Serve return points won | 37% | 36% | 34% | 33% |
2nd serve return points won | 53% | 54% | 59% | 56% |
Break points converted | 43% | 45% | 46% | 39% |
Novak is clearly one of the best returners the game has ever seen. However, over the years, he has also fine-tuned his service game winning almost 10% more service games than he did in 2012 and saving 16% more break points on his serve. Such are the kind of stats you require to be world number 1.
The opposition at Roland Garros
Novak will carry to Roland Garros the number 1 seeding and a bag full of dreams. Two men that have stood in his way most often in his career, Andy and Rafa will carry number 2, number 4 seedings respectively.
Roger has been struggling with his body issues and his plan for this year has been dismantled and reassembled and dismantled over and over again. With a long year ahead and a straining body it seems to have affected Roger due to the confirmation that he will not be part of the French Open.
The undisputed 'King of Clay', Rafael Nadal has had his share of ups and downs as well. He has specifically struggled against one man named Novak Djokovic. Since last year's French Open final, Rafa has failed to win even a single set against the Serbian.
For Andy, even though he prevailed as the winner in his latest meeting with Novak, he is still not the favourite to win against the world number 1. Andy has a lopsided 23-10 losing head to head record against Novak and more interestingly has not won back to back matches against Novak since the London Olympics and 2012 U.S. Open consecutive victories.
Another Swiss who has troubled Novak is Stan Wawrinka. Stan spoiled the party for Nole last year but it is highly unlikely that he will do it again this year. Stan has had a disappointing season so far and Novak's season has been highly impressive, to say the least.
With Roland Garros just round the corner, it is no exaggeration to say Novak Djokovic is the hot favourite to win the title this year. The loss against Andy was just a small obstacle in his road and perhaps will motivate him to work even harder.
Novak is not invincible but he is also not going anywhere anytime soon.