Why Rafael Nadal could stop Novak Djokovic's Calendar Slam bid by winning the US Open
Rafael Nadal made his Washington debut on Wednesday evening, where he beat Jack Sock in three pulsating sets. The Spaniard would be hoping to navigate past the strong 48-player field and get his hands on yet another trophy as he looks to regain full strength after a short break.
That said, Nadal's eyes are set on a far bigger prize this summer - the all-important US Open in New York. The 35-year-old failed to add to his collection of Roland Garros trophies earlier in the year, so he would be keen to win the last Major of the year and move ahead of Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic in the Slam race.
Rafael Nadal has historically been at his most vulnerable when he has played on a fast hardcourt, which theoretically makes him easy prey for opponents that employ first-strike tennis. But over the last few years he has turned that idea on its head by repeatedly bringing out his effervescent best during this stage of the season.
Nadal has won multiple titles in Canada and New York since 2017. In fact, the 2019 Canada Masters was the first time he had ever defended a title outside clay.
The Spaniard has started looking like an apex predator upon the resumption of the hardcourt season after Wimbledon. And he seems like a solid favorite for this week's Citi Open, where he is the sole top-10 player in the draw.
Nadal's four defeats this season have all come against top-10 opposition, but the highest-ranked player he can face in Washington will be World No. 15 Felix Auger-Aliassime.
As World No. 1 Novak Djokovic looks to engrave his name in tennis folklore by winning the coveted Calendar Slam in a few weeks' time, Rafael Nadal is doing something he hasn't done in the past - headlining the ATP 500 event in the US capital. A deep run here would be a real confidence-booster for the Spaniard, and it might even serve as a springboard for him to challenge a wounded Djokovic at the US Open.
Rafael Nadal’s record at the US Open makes him a force to reckon with in New York
In the the previous decade, Rafael Nadal was the most successful player at the US Open; he accumulated as many as four titles in New York from 2010-2019.
Nadal's record in New York contradicts the commonly held perception that he is not the biggest threat on hardcourt. Yes, the Spaniard is beatable on the surface, but only in relative terms. If you look at his US Open results in isolation rather than in comparison with his near-invincibility on clay, he looks pretty impressive on hardcourt too.
From the ATP Performance Zone, Rafael Nadal ranks 10th among all players - both active and non-active - with his success rate on hardcourt (77.9%). He has a better record than the likes of Andy Murray, Andy Roddick and Michael Chang – all of whom have won double-digit titles on the surface.
Even Pete Sampras, who ranks seventh on the list, has won fewer matches on hardcourt than Nadal (429 to 490).
The next few weeks will be vital for the Spaniard, who is on a mission to salvage his stop-start 2021 season. Nadal hasn’t quite set the world alight this term, with two titles under his belt so far, but he seems determined to correct that record.
With 3,000 ranking points to defend between now and the end of the US Open, Nadal would be itching to make a statement on the hardcourts of North America.
Will Novak Djokovic be fully fit and healthy for the American hardcourt season?
A widely held opinion among pundits and fans after the Olympics was that Novak Djokovic had taken a miscalculated gamble. Djokovic looked deflated and fatigued at the end of the tennis event in Tokyo, and even picked up a shoulder injury which forced him to forfeit the mixed doubles bronze match.
It was tough to see the world’s best player huff and puff as he tried to console himself with a bronze medal against Pablo Carreno Busta in the playoff. Less than 24 hours earlier, the Serb had seen his dream of winning gold evaporate into the thin, hot air of Tokyo as he lost to Alexander Zverev in the semifinals.
As if Djokovic hadn't gone through enough already, his comments during one of the mid-tournament press conferences were also taken out of context and misinterpreted. His quotes about dealing with pressure were unfairly dragged into the controversy surrounding Simone Biles, the American gymnast who withdrew from the Olympic Games citing mental health concerns.
Aside from the drama and the doubts, the US Open has been a sort of bogey Slam for Djokovic. He was ejected from the tournament last season in one of the most astonishing defaults in tennis history. The New York Slam is also the only Major outside clay where Rafael Nadal has managed to beat him multiple times (2010 and 2013 finals).
Right now Novak Djokovic looks like a marathoner who has hit a wall, and he has cast serious doubts over his fitness ahead of the American hardcourt season. Rafael Nadal - who has watched the recent developments from a different continent - will undoubtedly look at this as an opportunity.
By withdrawing from Wimbledon and the Olympics, Rafael Nadal has ensured he is fully fit and recharged
Recently, Rafael Nadal opened up in detail about the extent of the injury which forced him to skip Wimbledon and the Tokyo Olympics. Nadal has never been one to shy away from a challenge, especially when it comes to a Major event, but he still took the extreme step of withdrawing from the grasscourt Slam in order to protect his body.
When Nadal tweeted about his reasons for pulling out of both events, many thought it might be a tactical move keeping in mind the hardcourt season. But as his recent comments during the Washington event suggest, he had no option but to take a break in order to recharge his body.
Nadal explained in his pre-tournament press conference that he was unable to step on a court for almost 20 days due to a foot injury he picked up at the French Open.
"I had some problems after Roland Garros, for which I could not play a couple of significant tournaments for me, such as Wimbledon and the Olympics," the 35-year-old said. "My body decided for myself. If I had to choose, I would never miss Wimbledon and the Olympics, but I could not compete in these events."
But Rafael Nadal is fit now, with only a small amount of pain in his foot to deal with. And the entire tennis community knows how much damage he can do when he is well-rested.
Nadal has proven that he can be a formidable presence when the tennis calendar reaches this juncture. But having played just one hardcourt tournament all year, he will do his best to clock in the hours and be fully ready for the ultimate challenge at Flushing Meadows.
Rafael Nadal will play Lloyd Harris in the second round of the Citi Open on Thursday, and he is also entered for the Canada Masters next week. Having spent the best part of the post-Roland Garros period building his fitness, Nadal will likely be a huge threat to anyone that stands in his path from now until the US Open.