Why the 'Rafael Nadal would have won more Grand Slams than Novak Djokovic if not for injuries' narrative has to stop
Rafael Nadal's Grand Slam title haul of 22 was first equaled and then eclipsed by Novak Djokovic in 2023. As things stand, Djokovic has won 24 Majors, and even though the Serb's force on the ATP Tour feels like an increasingly diminishing one, it would be wrong to write him off in terms of his chances of winning future Grand Slams. After all, despite failing to win a Major this year, Djokovic still reached the Australian Open semifinals and the Wimbledon final.
Meanwhile, Nadal seems to have left his best days on the tennis court well behind him. After a resurgent 2022 that saw the Spaniard win his 21st and 22nd Majors at the Australian Open and the French Open, he was once again struck by injury.
Even though the record 14-time Roland Garros champion returned to action at the beginning of this season after missing almost the entirety of the last one, he has been a mere shadow of his former self. A 12-7 win-loss record on the ATP Tour is a confirmation of that.
To make matters worse, Nadal has struggled to find consistency because of niggling fitness concerns that have seen him withdraw from three out of four Grand Slams this year along with a host of other prestigious tournaments. The only 2024 Major he featured in was the French Open, where he lost in the first round to Alexander Zverev in straight sets.
To put things into perspective, Rafael Nadal has now missed 16 Majors throughout his illustrious career, either due to existing injuries or concerns about sustaining a fresh one. In contrast, Novak Djokovic only missed one Major with injury: the 2017 US Open. So, it would seem that the narrative that Nadal would have won more Grand Slams than Djokovic had the Spaniard been more injury-free makes sense. But does it?
Rafael Nadal's uncle Toni certainly believes the Spaniard "could be the best without the injuries"
The vast majority of Rafael Nadal's success on the Grand Slam stage, 16 of his 24 Majors, came under the guidance of his uncle Toni. Recently, in an interview with Euro News, the 63-year-old admitted that judging by numbers alone, there is no equal to Novak Djokovic.
However, he also said his nephew had the potential to win more Majors than the Serb, but he could not realize it because of the many injuries he had to contend with.
"Who is the best? Djokovic, because Djokovc won more titles than the others. Who could be the best without the injuries? My nephew. But he has injuries, so in the end, the best is Djokovic," Toni told Euro News.
I happen to agree with Toni because of his choice of words; the 63-year-old used the phrase "could be." I grew up a tennis fan chanting 'Rafa! Rafa!', and nothing would please me more today than to know that the tennis player I love to watch the most is the greatest of all time.
But what I don't agree with is the rampant 'what-if-ism' among many of his fans on social media, who speculate in hindsight to confidently say that Nadal 'would have' won more Majors than Djokovic minus his injury woes. The reason for my disagreement? Sport is full of uncertainty, with a multitude of dynamic factors in play that ultimately determine the outcomes of individual matches and tournaments.
Confused? Let's try and simplify with the help of a few examples. First, let's cast our minds back to the 2004 French Open. At the time, the Spaniard, aged 18, was forced to pull out of the claycourt Major with a stress fracture in his left ankle. Up until that point, it had been a breakthrough year for him, with his standout result being his stunning 6-3, 6-3, third-round win over the then-World No. 1 Roger Federer at the Miami Open.
So, what if Nadal didn't sustain the stress fracture ahead of the claycourt Major that year? Are we absolutely 100% sure that he would have won it? The fact is that we can't be. Of course, he 'could' have won, but to say that he 'would' have is to do a great disservice to the eventual champion, Argentina's Gaston Gaudio, who defeated compatriot Guillermo Coria in a five-set epic after remarkably saving two championship points.
Just so you don't assume that I'm cherrypicking examples, let's fast forward to a more recent instance of Nadal missing a Major with an injury. What about 2013, arguably his most dominant year on the ATP Tour? The Spaniard had to withdraw from the 2013 Australian Open but went on to win the French Open and the US Open that year.
What if Nadal had played in Melbourne that year? Again, I believe he 'could' have won the title, but again, to say he 'would' have is to dismiss eventual champion Novak Djokovic's heroics. Djokovic defeated Andy Murray in four sets in the final, but the Serb's greatest test in that tournament came in the fourth round against a brilliant Stan Wawrinka, a five-setter that Djokovic somehow managed to dig deep in and win.
Quite simply, injuries are part and parcel of any sport, and talking about how a player would have fared without them may be fascinating, but at the end of the day, it is futile. So, let's put the speculative talk aside and bring this down purely to facts and, of course, my conclusive opinion on the subject.
Rafael Nadal lost eight Grand Slam finals, and he would have been well beyond the reach of Novak Djokovic had he won them all
On eight occasions, Rafael Nadal made it to Major finals but ended up on the losing side. Why am I bringing up those eight occasions? Because those were the eight real chances that the Spaniard got to add to his Grand Slam title haul. They are facts and not any sort of speculation and 'what-if-ism', but the unfortunate reality is that he lost them.
Four of those finals came against Novak Djokovic. Imagine. Had the Spaniard won all of those, he would have had 26 Majors, and Djokovic 20. Three of those finals were against Roger Federer. Again, had the Spaniard won them instead of winning the finals he lost against Djokovic, he would still have one more Grand Slam title than the Serb.
The French Open, unsurprisingly, is the only Grand Slam where Nadal has never lost a final. He also lost one Major final to Stan Wawrinka at the 2014 Australian Open, which the Spaniard later admitted to playing through pain because of his reluctance to retire during a Major final.
So the multitude of dynamic factors I mentioned before had all aligned in the Spaniard's favor on those eight occasions. He was actually physically present in the finals, having reached them playing his never-say-die brand of tennis and had every chance to win them. However, due to a combination of problems in his own game, the brilliance of his opponents' games, and a sprinkling of misfortune on the days of those finals, he lost. That's just it. Nothing more. Nothing less.
I am still very much a Rafael Nadal fan and I have come to terms with the fact that it's way too late for him to outdo what Novak Djokovic has done. I believe it's time for all Nadal fans to accept the reality as it is. Our favorite man from Mallorca will still go down as one of the greatest to ever play tennis, just unfortunately, not the greatest, i.e. unless he makes yet another mind-boggling comeback, which, at this point, doesn't feel like it will happen.