Will Novak Djokovic ever become world No. 1 again?
Novak Djokovic has withdrawn from the French Open following a torn medical meniscus in his right knee that he suffered in his fourth-round match against Francisco Cerundolo. The 37-year-old Serb completed the match by taking painkillers, but had to give in to the injury afterwards.
Given Djokovic’s age, the injury should take months to heal, meaning he will miss the Wimbledon next month and could be doubtful for the US Open starting in August, too.
Djokovic is likely to drop a lot of ATP points:
Djokovic won the French Open last year, and his inability to defend the title means that he will drop 2000 points. Hence, Jannik Sinner, who has around 1000 points less than the Serb's tally, will be the new world No. 1 on Monday, irrespective of whoever wins the title at Roland Garros.
Both Sinner and Alcaraz have had their fair share of injury problems, especially given their young age. However, it can be safely assumed that both of them will play at both the Wimbledon and the US Open, along with a few other big tournaments this year.
If Djokovic is forced to miss both Wimbledon and the US Open, he will drop a further 3200 (1200 +2000) points, as he finished runner-up at Wimbledon last year and won the US Open. Even if Djokovic is back in action after the US Open, he will have to wait until the Australian Open next January to have a shot at winning a Grand Slam again and thereby earn 2000 points. Should he be able to win the Australian Open next year, it will also mean that Sinner will drop 2000 points as the defending champion.
The Serb does not play at too many Masters 1000 tournaments these days and might only be fit to play in Paris or Shanghai later this year. All of that means that he will not get too many chances to overtake the next world No. 1, whoever that might be.
In such a scenario, Djokovic might have to wait until the end of the Sunshine Double and the European clay swing to dethrone the new world No. 1. All of that, however, will only apply if he is able to do well in those tournaments and win the title in at least a few of them.
He will turn 38 in a year, and at that age, it is unlikely that he will fare well in the physically taxing clay-court competitions. The Serb's only remaining hope is to heal in time for the Masters 1000 events in Paris and Shanghai this year, go deep into them, and then use his hard court expertise to excel at the Australian Open and the Sunshine Double the following year.
Given his age and the fact that both Sinner and Alcaraz’s careers are on the ascent, the chances of Djokovic wresting back the top spot remain extremely slim.