Will Stan be able to break the Nadal jinx? - Mutua Madrid ATP singles final preview

Right from the start of the tournament this year, the Madrid clay has been producing many upsets – none bigger than the eviction of the tournament favourite and World No.1, Novak Djokovic, made possible by an impressive performance by the next big thing in tennis, Grigor Dimitrov of Bulgaria. The much anticipated Serb vs Spaniard showdown in the final has thus been laid to rest, leaving passionate tennis fans all around the world stunned. The disappointment did not end there as we saw another shocker couple of days ago when the defending champion, Roger Federer, was shown the door in the third round of the tournament when he was dismissed in three sets by Kei Nishikori.

In the midst of all these unbelievable upsets, as undeterred as he has always been on clay, Rafael Nadal has made it to his third successive clay court final this year. Interestingly, this will also be his seventh straight final appearance since his return from a seven-month long injury lay off. Everything seems to be going the Spaniard’s way at the moment and he looks to be the overwhelming favourite to win this year’s tournament with his arch rivals Djokovic and Federer already out of the way.

The two-time Madrid open champion, who last won his title here in 2010 when he beat Roger Federer in straight sets, is all set to meet the country man of the Swiss Maestro, Stanislas Wawrinka, in today’s final. It is always great to see someone making it to the final by defying all odds and the 15th ranked player in the world has done just that. Having done all the hard work which has kept him alive all throughout the tournament till now, he is left to overcome the tournament’s biggest challenge in order to claim the first ever Masters title of his career.

It is surely not going to be an easy job for Stan, who is yet to register a victory against the Spanish Armada, having lost all his previous eight encounters to him. He has to be on his toes throughout the match and has to play out of his skin if he is to cause an upset today. No one expects him to surprise the Spaniard, who is playing on his most preferred surface. But at the same time, the Swiss should have no reason to feel completely let down by the commanding presence of the clay court king on the other side of the net simply because it was only last week he managed to pull off an improbable victory against a certain Spanish Bull, David Ferrer, in the Portugal open. If anything, that triumph should serve as a motivating factor for the Swiss, going into today’s final.

He has 20 wins to show against 8 losses this year so far. One of those defeats came against the current World No.1, Novak Djokovic, in the fourth round of the Australian open which, by no means, can be called a disgrace. He pushed the Serb to the limit during that match, only to lose the contest by a whisker in the final set, 12-10. That match perfectly exemplified the fighting spirit of Stan who managed to stay till the end against his top seeded opponent, before the latter brought his experience and mental toughness to his rescue.

So, this year has been quite a good one so far for the man who has always been living under the shadow of Roger Federer. The 28-year-old has proved to the whole world that he cannot be taken lightly anymore and he has it in him the required weapons to beat any top ranked player in his own den. In fact, no one can doubt his talent. His one-handed backhand is one of the best shots in the world and has been acknowledged as such by former tennis great John McEnroe. So, talent wise, no doubt he is right up there with most of the players who are ranked above him.

Pitted against powerhouses like Jo Wilfred Tsonga and Tomas Berdych, he showed great temperament and class in prevailing over them in the quarter finals and semi finals respectively here in the Madrid Masters. He started off in style by breaking Berdych in the opening game of the first set yesterday with ease. The next set belonged to the Czech who went on to take the lead in the third and final set, 3-1, with a break up. However, the 2008 Beijing doubles champion made a superb comeback, eventually winning the set 6-4. Undoubtedly, he seems to have developed the fortitude to fight till the end.

On the other hand, Rafa is much ahead of anyone in terms of mental toughness, leave alone Wawrinka. He has not been taught to quit since his childhood. Those who have read his autobiography would be aware of the kind of training and ordeal which he was put through by his uncle, Toni Nadal. Having learned to keep the balls in play as far as possible during long rallies, he developed a game perfectly suited for clay courts. So, he has been almost invincible while playing on red dirt. Ever since his comeback, he has won four titles, the maximum by anyone this year – three of which have come on clay. He looks totally unstoppable as of now and so the situation does not augur well for the Swiss.

The southpaw is more determined and motivated to improve his ranking which is pretty much evident from the way he came back after a minor blip in the first set against David Ferrer in the quarterfinals couple of days ago. Having finished off the final set against his compatriot with a bagel, he started his semifinal match against the wild card entrant, Pablos Andujar, with another bagel. When Rafa is in such lethal form, it is impossible for anyone to beat him, especially if the surface happens to be clay.

It is important for Wawrinka to attack the Spaniard right from the word go. He has to use various shots in his repertoire, combining them well, if he is to break the defense of the seven-time French Open champion. The Swiss has always claimed that his favourite surface is clay though he has fared much better on harder courts. So, it is time for us to find out how good he is on clay. Besides, he can gain confidence from the fact that his opponent’s record has not been as impressive in Madrid as it has been on other clay courts like Monte Carlo and Rome.

Given the scenario and the form which he is in, it is not advisable to overlook completely the chances of the 15th ranked Swiss to win the title. However, a victory here is more important for Rafa to add some more points to enhance his ranking before the French Open starts and so he would do everything possible to take his 55th career title. All said and done, I can assure you that the match is not going to yield a result in straight sets, whosoever happens to win it.

Prediction: Rafael Nadal to win his 23rd Masters title in three sets.