Wimbledon 2015 men's second semifinal preview: Roger Federer vs Andy Murray
Friday marks the day Roger Federer and Andy Murray will play each other for the 24th time. And it's obvious that there's much at stake for both players, since it is a blockbuster Wimbledon semifinal.
Their head-to-head is narrowly in Federer's favour, with the Swiss leading 12-11. But although Federer has won their last three meetings, Murray won the last encounter on grass – in the final of the 2012 London Olympics. A few weeks before that, Federer overcame Murray in four sets to win Wimbledon, his 17th Grand Slam title.
Murray’s key to success
Murray has finally recovered in full from his back surgery in late 2013, and is playing arguably the best tennis of his life under new coach Amelie Mauresmo.
His journey to the semifinal has been pretty straightforward with the only minor hitches coming when he dropped a set each against Ivo Karlovic, the man with the highest number of aces served in Wimbledon 2015 so far, and the Italian Andreas Seppi. The Scot bounced back quite well after both dropped sets though.
As always, Murray will have the support of the home crowd behind him at SW19. He has indicated in his previous press conferences that he feels comfortable now with the burden of expectation and loves to play in these pressure situations.
The key for Murray to overcome Federer will be consistency at the baseline, complemented by controlled aggression. If he is to push Federer out of his comfort zone, he has to go for his shots and play with pace to try and make sure Federer is unable to dictate play. Moreover, during his match with Karlovic, Murray was able to hit a few spectacular topspin lobs that passed over the gigantic figure of 6'11". This will be one of the major shots for him to play against the attacking Federer along with his always amazing passing shots on the run.
Aside from baseline play, Murray has to be clinical on serve and maintain a high first serve percentage. His second serve is relatively weak and against a player like Federer, who will be keen to attack on every opportunity, Murray will either have to go for more on his serves (which might result in damaging double faults) or get his first serves in more than 70% of the time.
Murray has beaten Federer on the surface before and will have confidence coming in to play in front of his home crowd. The longer points are likely to favour him more since that is his style of play, whereas the shorter the points are, the greater the advantage for Federer. Similarly, if the match goes into a deciding set, the 33-year-old Federer’s energy may drain a tad faster than Murray’s, which could be a deciding factor.
Federer’s key to success
The World No. 2 will be contesting his 10th Wimbledon semifinal today. Unsurprisingly, he has never lost a semifinal at Wimbledon (9-0 record).
Federer came into Wimbledon on the back of an eighth title at Halle this year. He has been in fine form during the tournament, only dropping one set enroute the semifinals.
The Swiss Maestro seems to be getting better and better as the tournament progresses. He has also cut down on his unforced errors substantially in the last five matches. Errors end up being his Achilles’ heel whenever he loses, so the fact that he’s kept them under control so far is really good news for his camp.
The resurgent Federer will look to play his own aggressive style and will rush the net at every possible opportunity, but it will not be easy. He will have his hands full at the net due to Murray's superb court coverage and ability to hit passing shots from both sides.
Remarkably, Federer has been broken only once since the first round at Halle. Soon after conceding the break though, he got a break of his own and closed out the set comfortably against Gilles Simon in the quarterfinal.
Like we saw in last year's final, where he served 13 aces in just the third set alone, Federer can be devastating on serve and he will look to do exactly that against Murray. But the Scot is one of the best returners in the game, and nothing will come easy in this match.
Long rallies would benefit Murray
Compared to last year, Federer has been hitting his groundstrokes, especially the backhand, with a lot more venom. He has been hitting it relatively flat and with less topspin, and has been able to hit both down the line and crosscourt with precision.
The backhand down the line will be critical in attacking Murray's forehand which might be one of Federer's tactics on Friday. Murray’s forehand is definitely his weaker sie, and he has missed numerous shots off that wing in his recent matches. His two-hander, on the other hand, is both devastating and reliable, and Federer will look to avoid hitting too much to that side.
Perhaps most importantly though, Federer will have to try and keep the points short because Murray is far more comfortable rallying from the back of the court and is less likely to faulter.
Despite Federer’s improved net play, a point of concern for his fans is the amount of seemingly easy volleys he’s missed in the last two matches. He will definitely have to cut down on the unforced errors and disallow Murray any free points during the match.
Although the crowd will favor Murray, the difference won't be quite as much as against his other opponents. Federer is loved all over the world wherever he plays, so my guess is the crowd won't be overwhelmingly in anyone's favour.
Moreover, at the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals in London last November, Federer demolished Murray 6-0, 6-1. Granted, Murray was recovering from injury and had been playing consecutively for many weeks without a break, but the psychological effects of such a loss can linger for a long time.
A close contest is on the cards
All in all, this promises to be an intriguing contest and one that the fans simply cannot wait for. The match is almost too close to call at this point. But Federer is arguably the best grasscourt player of all time with an 89% win-loss record, and the Wimbledon Centre Court is where he feels the most comfortable and confident.
Murray on the other hand is in his best form ever. On a closing note, a win will be huge for either player since Federer is going for an unprecedented 8th title at SW19 whereas Murray is bidding for his third Grand Slam title overall. No matter who wins, this match will definitely be a treat to watch.