Wimbledon 2021: Roger Federer's projected path to the final
With Wimbledon set to start on Monday, the men's singles draw has been released with Roger Federer listed as the sixth seed. The Swiss, who was beaten by Novak Djokovic in the 2019 final, is looking for a record-extending ninth Wimbledon title.
Federer, who turns 40 in August, comes into the Championships low on confidence, having suffered a series of surprising defeats since his comeback from injury.
While he did beat Ilya Ivashka in his opener at Halle, he was defeated by Felix Auger-Aliassime in the next round in what was one of his worst performances on grass in recent memory.
He will, however, look to turn his fortunes around at Wimbledon, where he has registered some of his greatest triumphs.
On that note, let's take a look at how Federer's draw at Wimbledon could unfold.
Roger Federer's 1st round opponent - Adrian Mannarino
The eight-time Wimbledon champion will open his campaign against Adrian Mannarino in what could be a tricky fixture.
At the time of writing, Mannarino is through to the semifinals in Mallorca, where he is due to face Sam Querrey. The Frenchman has found some form after early exits at Stuttgart and Queen's Club and will head to Wimbledon with plenty of match practice under his belt.
Federer owns a 6-0 head-to-head advantage against Mannarino and has beaten him twice at Wimbledon before (2011 & 2018).
Roger Federer's likely 2nd round opponent - Richard Gasquet / Yuichi Sugita
Should Federer survive the Mannarino challenge, he would face either Yuichi Sugita or old foe Richard Gasquet in the second round.
Federer leads the head-to-head against Gasquet 18-2 and has not lost to the Frenchman since 2011.
Moreover, Gasquet could be rusty, given he has played only one Challenger event on grass (at Nottingham) in the lead-up to Wimbledon. The Frenchman was forced to retire from the tournament in the quarterfinals due to injury.
Federer has also played Sugita before, winning in straight sets in Halle four years ago. The Japanese mainly plies his trade on the Challenger circuit and has not been in the best of form lately. He is currently on a five-match losing streak and is unlikely to pose much of a threat to Federer.
Roger Federer's likely 3rd round opponent - Cameron Norrie / Filip Krajinovic
Cameron Norrie, who finished as the runner-up in Queen's this year, potentially lies in wait for Federer in the third round. The two have never faced each other on the tour before, making this an intriguing fixture.
Norrie beat Aslan Karatsev and Denis Shapovalov to reach the finals at Queen's Club before running Matteo Berrettini close in the final. He is in a rich vein of form and could certainly test Federer. To make the third round, Norrie would need to see off Filip Krajinovic.
The Serb has failed to beat Federer in any of their four previous meetings.
Roger Federer's likely 4th round opponent - Pablo Carreno Busta / Sam Querrey / Lorenzo Sonego
Pablo Carreno Busta and Sam Querrey will face each other in the first round, meaning one of these players will not make it far enough to meet Federer.
Based on current form and pedigree on grass, Querrey looks likely to get the better of the Spaniard. To set up a potential fourth-round meeting with Federer, Querrey may have to see off Lorenzo Sonego.
The Italian does not have much experience on grass and has never made it past the first round at Wimbledon.
Federer has never lost to Sonego, Querrey, or Carreno Busta on tour before and will thus fancy his chances of making the quarterfinals.
Roger Federer's likely quarterfinal opponent - Daniil Medvedev / Marin Cilic / Grigor Dimitrov
Marin Cilic and Daniil Medvedev are both dangerous opponents, but have been placed in the same section of the draw and could meet in the third round. The winner of that match is likely to face Grigor Dimitrov in the fourth round ahead of a potential meeting with Federer.
Dimitrov, a former semifinalist at Wimbledon, is the favorite to emerge from his section of the draw that also features Hubert Hurkacz, Lorenzo Musetti and Alexander Bublik.
Medvedev and Cilic are both big servers and could pose some problems for Federer.
Roger Federer's likely semifinal opponent - Alexander Zverev / Matteo Berrettini
Based on recent form, Matteo Berrettini is the favorite to reach the last four from his quarter of the draw that also features fourth seed Alexander Zverev. Zverev and Berrettini are both proven performers and can trouble Federer.
John Isner, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Ugo Humbert and Aslan Karatsev are also in this section and have an outside chance to make the last four. Isner, in particular, can deal some damage with his big serve and forehand, but he will potentially face Berrettini in the third round.
Roger Federer's likely opponent in the final - Novak Djokovic
Defending champion Novak Djokovic has been handed a rather straightforward draw this time around and should have little trouble reaching the final.
Djokovic defeated Federer in an epic five-set contest in 2019 and should they meet again this year, the Serb will be the favorite.
Djokovic leads the head-to-head 27-23 and has won three of their four meetings at Wimbledon.
Prediction: The Swiss has shown he still has the ability to excel in best-of-five-set matches. A quarterfinal finish looks like a safe bet for the sixth seed.