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WTA Finals 2023: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds, and pick

Match Details

Fixture: (1) Aryna Sabalenka vs (4) Elena Rybakina

Date: November 2, 2023

Tournament: WTA Finals 2023

Round: Group Stage

Venue: Plaza Quintana Roo, Cancun, Mexico

Category: Year-ending championships

Surface: Hardcourt

Prize money: $9,000,000

Live telecast: USA – Tennis Channel | UK – Amazon Prime Video | Canada - TSN


Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina preview

Aryna Sabalenka at the 2023 WTA Finals.
Aryna Sabalenka at the 2023 WTA Finals.

Grand Slam champions Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina will square off a must-win match in the group stage of the 2023 WTA Finals on Thursday.

Sabalenka handed Maria Sakkari a 6-0, 6-1 beatdown in her first round robin match. She then took on Jessica Pegula in her next group tie. The Belarusian fell behind 5-2 in the first set, but put up a fight towards the end.

Sabalenka initially stopped Pegula from closing out the set by bagging two games in a row. However, the American got the job done on her second attempt to take a one set lead.

Pegula found herself leading 5-2 in the next set and served for the match, but wasted a couple of match points as Sabalenka fought back. The World No. 1 then saved an additional four match points in the next game, but got broken in the end to lose the match 6-4, 6-3.

Having suffered a straight sets defeat to Pegula in her first group tie, Rybakina faced Sakkari in her next match. The Kazakh breezed through the opening set as she claimed it without dropping a single game in it.

With neither player securing a break of serve, Sakkari nabbed a close second set in the tie-break. Rybakina blew a 4-2 lead in the third set, but got it together in the eventual tie-break to wrap up a 6-0, 6-7 (4), 7-6 (2) win.


Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina head-to-head

Sabalenka leads Rybakina 4-2 in the head-to-head. The Kazakh won their previous encounter at the 2023 China Open in straight sets.


Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina odds

PlayerMoneylineHandicap BetsTotal Games
Aryna Sabalenka-185+1.5 (-450)Over 22.5 (-105)
Jessica Pegula+140-1.5 (+280)Under 22.5 (-135)

(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)


Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina prediction

Elena Rybakina at the 2023 WTA Finals.
Elena Rybakina at the 2023 WTA Finals.

This winner takes it all battle between these two is yet another chapter in this engaging rivalry. Sabalenka had the edge in their match-up early on as she won their first four encounters, though she needed three sets every time to win.

Rybakina has now started to make some inroads as she has triumped in their last couple of meetings, that too in straight sets. Both have a rather similar style of play, with big serves and powerful groundstrokes to match.

Rybakina now seems unfazed by Sabalenka's hard-hitting, while the latter has crumbled under the pressure of the former's flat and fast paced shots. The Belarusian is under added pressure of defending her No. 1 ranking too, with her rival Iga Swiatek breathing down her neck.

Both have been quite vocal about the dismal conditions at the venue, but have brushed those aside to focus on their campaigns. In the end, it seems like Rybakina seems to have figured out Sabalenka and is likely to continue her winning streak against the World No. 1.

Pick: Elena Rybakina to win in three sets.

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