WTA Finals 2023: Women's singles group analysis, preview, and prediction
The 2023 season will crescendo at the WTA Finals, with the year's best-performing players vying for the trophy. The tournament is set to be hosted at a newly constructed facility in Cancun, Mexico, between October 29 and November 5.
With defending champion Caroline Garcia failing to make the cut this year, the field will be led by top seed and World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka.
The Belarusian is set to face stiff competition from the likes of Iga Swiatek and fellow 2023 Slam winners Marketa Vondrousova and Coco Gauff.
With round-robin action set to begin on Sunday, here is a look at the prospects of all eight players in the fray:
Group Bacalar: Aryna Sabalenka, Elena Rybakina reignite rivalry, face Jessica Pegula and Maria Sakkari tests
Players: (1) Aryna Sabalenka, (4) Elena Rybakina, (5) Jessica Pegula and (8) Maria Sakkari
World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka will reignite her burgeoning rivalry with Elena Rybakina in Group Bacalar.
The Belarusian leads their head-to-head 4-2, but it is Rybakina who has taken two of their three meetings this year. The latest of these victories came at the China Open earlier this month—a 7-5, 6-2 dismissal that was Sabakenka's first as the World No. 1.
Both Rybkaina and Sabalenka—with 439 and 388 aces—are likely to end the season atop the serving winners leaderboard. Their big first serves and powerful groundstrokes could prove to be massive weapons in the quick conditions in Cancun.
The contrast could be especially stark against the likes of Jessica Pegula and Maria Sakkari, who do not possess an obvious weapon in their artillery.
Pegula, for one, can put her flat and pacey groundstrokes to good use here. The recently-crowned Korea Open champ likes to stay low and take the ball early.
She is also a master at using her opponent's pace against them with quick redirections. A positive 2-1 head-to-head against Rybakina is testament to that.
The American has however, struggled against the brute power coming off of Sabalenka's racket and trails their record by 1-4.
Sakkari's numbers tell a similar story, as she has split her two meetings with Rybakina but is well behind Sabalenka in their head-to-head meetings (3-6).
Having struggled for most of 2023, the Greek came into her own towards the end. In a major boost to her confidence, she lifted just her second—and biggest— career trohy in Guadlajara last month. A return to Mexico for the WTA Finals is likely to bring back some good memories.
Predicted semifinalists: Aryna Sabaleka, Elena Rybakina
Group Chetumal: Iga Swiatek, Coco Gauff & Marketa Vondrousova eye WTA Finals after Major success
Players: (2) Iga Swiatek, (3) Coco Gauff, (6) Ons Jabeur and (7) Marketa Vondrousova
Three of the four 2023 Grand Slam champions have landed in Group Bacalar, with Iga Swiatek being the highest seed.
The Pole does not have the best memories of playing in the WTA Finals in Mexico, having ended her campaign in tears at Guadajalara two years ago. Up against a fresh set of challenges, she will be under pressure right away.
That said, Swiatek has a positive win-loss record against all players in her group. Despite her Cincinnati Open loss to Coco Gauff, she dominates their head-to-head 8-1. A comfortable win in Beijing was a testament to the former World No. 1's mental strength as she handed the youngster her first win post-US Open glory.
Both Swiatek and Gauff face the challenge of players who are far more comfortable on quick courts: Wimbledon champion Markteta Vondrousova and Ons Jabeur.
Jabeur has struggled for form outside of SW19 this year and has negative—albeit very close—head-to-head records against the other three in her group.
The Tunisian, however, has a game that is tailor-made for fast conditions. If she can find her stride on the serve and forehand wing, she could well spring up a surprise or two at this year's WTA Finals.
Vondrousova, meanwhile, could just as easily shake things up with her versatile game. The Czech's serve is arguably the best of the lot, given Gauff's tendency to go off-kilter on the second serve, and her varied game has troubled even the best in recent years.
The main challenge at the WTA Finals for her will be entering uncharted territory. She has never beaten Swiatek and Gauff in two meetings each and is playing in her first WTA Finals.
Her triumph at Wimbledon showed that she loves a big stage, and her opponents will need to be on the lookout for her dropshots and trickery once again.
Predicted semifinalists: Iga Swiatek, Marketa Vondrousova
Prediction for semifinals
Marketa Vondrousova def. Aryna Sabalenka
Elena Rybakina def. Iga Swiatek
Prediction for final
Elena Rybakina def. Marketa Vondrousova