WTA Finals 2024: Women's singles draw analysis, preview, and prediction ft. potential Iga Swiatek-Aryna Sabalenka SF
The women's singles draw for the 2024 WTA Finals has been released, and we are in for some action-packed tennis in Riyadh. Iga Swiatek won the year-end tournament in 2023 after thrashing Jessica Pegula in that year's final.
The Pole is bound to face a tough title defense in Saudi Arabia, with World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka in peak form. Coco Gauff and Zheng Qinwen produced some fine performances over the past month and have a good chance of contending for the title as well.
Pegula, Elena Rybakina, and Jasmine Paolini are also capable of good runs if they are at their best. Let's look at how the singles draw for the 2024 WTA Finals could unfold.
WTA Finals 2024 Purple Group: Aryna Sabalenka looking to end the impressive season on a high
Players: (1) Aryna Sabalenka, (4) Jasmine Paolini, (5) Elena Rybakina, (7) Zheng Qinwen
Analysis: World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka will enter the tournament as a heavy favorite to win given her string of impressive performances over the past couple of months. The Belarusian won the US Open and the Cincinnati Open, and most recently triumphed at the Wuhan Open. Sabalenka reached the final in 2022 and the semifinals in 2023, and she will have high hopes entering the 2024 WTA Finals.
Fourth seed Jasmine Paolini had a slurry of impressive performances at the start of the season as she won her maiden WTA 1000 title in Dubai, and reached two Grand Slam finals at the French Open and Wimbledon. However, the Italian's performances dipped a little after the grass-court Major as she suffered a second-round exit in Cincinnati and followed that up with a fourth-round elimination at the US Open.
Paolini then reached the third round of the China Open before making it to the quarterfinals of the Wuhan Open. Paolini may not have been at her absolute best over the past few months, but given how she performed in Wuhan, the Italian has a fair chance of reaching the semifinals of the WTA Finals if she is slightly more composed.
Fifth seed Elena Rybakina will be back in action after a long break, with her last tournament being the US Open. The Kazakh produced some decent performances at the start of the season, as she won three WTA 500 titles and reached the final of the Qatar Open and Miami Open. However, she played just two tournaments after reaching the Wimbledon semifinals, losing in the second round of the Cincinnati Open before withdrawing from the US Open before her second-round fixture.
Fitness has been more of an issue for Rybakina than form, and if the Kazakh is at her fittest, there is a fair chance of her launching a title challenge at the WTA Finals.
Seventh seed Zheng Qinwen has produced some impressive performances over the past few months, having notably won the Olympic gold. The Chinese's last four tournaments have seen some deep runs, as she reached the quarterfinals of the US Open, the semifinals of the China Open, and the final of the Wuhan Open before winning the Toray Pan Pacific Open in Tokyo.
Zheng will have high expectations at the WTA Finals, and if she can replicate her form from the last few months in Riyadh, it won't be much of a surprise if she reaches the semifinals from Group Purple.
Expected Semifinalists: Aryna Sabalenka, Zheng Qinwen
WTA Finals 2024: Iga Swiatek, Coco Gauff and Jessica Pegula make for an interesting draw
Players: (2) Iga Swiatek, (3) Coco Gauff, (6) Jessica Pegula, (8) Barbora Krejcikova
Analysis: This is a group that will have some highly-anticipated matchups. Just like last year, Defending champion Iga Swiatek will enter the WTA Finals with the aim of reclaiming her No. 1 ranking. It will be a true test for the Pole, whose performances on hard courts have not been as dominant compared to those on clay.
Swiatek has yet to win a trophy since her French Open triumph and her last on-court appearance was a quarterfinal exit at the US Open. If the 23-year-old is at her best mentally more than anything else, there is a fair chance of her contending for the WTA Finals title.
Third seed Coco Gauff endured some disappointing performances after the grass-court season, suffering a second-round exit at the Cincinnati Open while ending her title defense at the US Open in the fourth round. However, the American did brilliantly bounce back at the China Open, winning her second WTA 1000 title in Beijing and following it up with a semifinal run in the Wuhan Open.
Gauff reached the semifinals of the WTA Finals in 2023 and given her recent performances, it won't be much of a surprise if she goes that far or even further in Riyadh this year.
2023 runner-up Jessica Pegula entered the year-end tournament back then after winning a WTA 500 event. However, the American has endured contrasting circumstances in 2024, with her last two tournaments ending in Round-of-16 exits.
Pegula produced some incredible performances at the North American hard-court swing, winning the Canadian Open while reaching the finals of the Cincinnati Open and the US Open. If the 30-year-old manages to replicate those performances, she can give the likes of Iga Swiatek and Coco Gauff a run for their money at the WTA Finals.
Eighth seed Barbora Krejcikova is perhaps the biggest underdog in Riyadh as if we remove the Czech's Wimbledon triumph, the season has been far from impressive for her in 2024. The 28-year-old has won just one out of her last five matches and qualifying from this group will no doubt be a Herculean task for her.
Expected Semifinalists: Coco Gauff, Iga Swiatek
WTA Finals 2024: Semifinal predictions
Semifinal 1: Iga Swiatek vs Aryna Sabalenka
The highly-anticipated clash between Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka might come in the semifinals, and we could have an exciting encounter on our hands. Two of the three encounters between them at the WTA Finals have gone to three sets, and there could be another instance of this.
Considering the way Sabalenka has performed, there is a fair chance of her coming out on top and ousting Iga Swiatek from the year-end tournament.
Semifinal 2: Coco Gauff vs Zheng Qinwen
Gauff and Zheng could lock horns for the second time, and if both players perform the way they did in China, a thrilling fixture could ensue between two aggressive players. If Gauff is mentally at her best, she should be able to edge out the Chinese and reach the final.
WTA Finals 2024: Final Prediction
Coco Gauff and Aryna Sabalenka could lock horns for the third time in 2024. The two previously played out an intense semifinal at the Wuhan Open, with the Belarusian bouncing back to win 1-6, 6-4, 6-4.
Sabalenka may enter the match as the favorite to win but Gauff has produced some fine tennis lately. That said, it will eventually be a psychological battle, and the more composed player will edge out the win.
Final Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka def. Coco Gauff