WTA Madrid Draw Analysis - Serena Williams and Maria Sharapova start as favourites

Over the next two weeks, the top players on the men’s and women’s tours will gather first in Madrid and then in Rome for combined events, which serve as key warm-ups for the French Open grand slam that kicks off on May 26th. This week’s Madrid field is packed, as the top 20 women in the world are in the draw. The WTA’s Big Three – Serena Williams, Maria Sharapova and Victoria Azarenka – are all in action. While Williams and Sharapova also have the world no. 1 ranking as motivation (not like they needed any more), Azarenka is back on the tour for the first time since the Indian Wells event in March and remains unbeaten this year in 17 matches. But before they get there, there are plenty of rounds to play and several dangerous opponents to get past. Here’s our breakdown of the women’s draw at the Mutua Madrid Open which begins today

First Quarter

Serena Williams is the top seed and the 31 year old American, who won the event last year, opens up against a qualifier in the first round. Hard to believe, but that could be her toughest round until the quarter finals against fifth seed Li Na. The qualifying draw does not get over until late Saturday but there are some dangerous names in there, including Stuttgart semi-finalist Bethanie Mattek-Sands, rising American teen Madison Keys, feisty 18 year old Yulia Putintseva and Spanish teenager Garbine Muguruza. Serena should be able to get past the Russian Maria Kirilenko in the round of 16 if the Russian clears the talented French girl Kristina Mladenovic.

In the other half of this quarter, Li Na could have her hands full against Serena’s sister Venus. The fifth ranked Chinese, named as one of the 100 most influential people in the world by TIME magazine, lost to Serena in the Miami quarters but is playing well – having reached the finals in Stuttgart. Venus has had a mixed season – winning 10 of 14 matches and reaching the semis in Charleston where she lost to sister Serena. But her health issues are never going to completely go away; making her vulnerable to Jane Doe on any given day. Venus starts off against Spanish wild card Anabel Medina Garrigues in a match between the two most prolific clay courters on the WTA. Medina Garrigues has 10 WTA titles on clay – the most by any active player and she is followed closely by Venus who has nine. Interesting to note that Li Na has beaten Venus in all three career meetings previously.

Li Na’s projected fourth round opponent is the struggling Dane Caroline Wozniacki. The former world no. 1 is only 3-3 in her last three events and six of her ten losses this year have been to players ranked outside the top 60. Wozniacki will find the going tough in Madrid as well with French Open quarter-finalist Yaroslava Shvedova coming first up and big-hitting German Mona Barthel looming as a second round opponent.

First Round Match to Watch Out for – Venus Williams vs. Anabel Medina Garrigues
Upset Alert – Yaroslava Shvedova to upset Caroline Wozniacki
Keep an eye out for – Versatile Belgian Kirsten Flipkens
Predicted Quarter final – Serena Williams vs. Li Na

Second Quarter

Azarenka is the third seed this week and seems to be coming in unnoticed, having not played since March due to an ankle injury. And the two-time Australian Open champion will have not have any time to ease into the draw. She opens up against Russian Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova. The 21 year old is coached by Martina Hingis these days and on Saturday, will be playing her third final of the season in Portugal. While the Russian is yet to find the consistency to make the top 10, she could provide plenty of trouble to Azarenka. Even if Azarenka survives, it doesn’t get any easier. Russian Ekaterina Makarova, another streaky big-hitter, could come up in round two and Frenchwoman Marion Bartoli or former French Open champion Francesca Schiavone loom ahead in round three.

In the other half of this section, doubles partners and best friends Sara Errani and Roberta Vinci could be headed for a clash in the round of 16. Errani is the closest to the WTA has to a clay court specialist and has been been able to successfully avoid the sophomore slump, to the surprise of many. Errani has reached the finals of the indoor hard court event in Paris and the outdoor hard court event in Dubai, besides winning on the clay in Acapulco. Meanwhile, Vinci is playing the best tennis of her life at the ripe old age of 30. Vinci has won the WTA clay court event in Katowice last month and after Schiavone and Errani, could she be the next Italian woman to script her own love affair with Roland Garros this year. If the two, who have decided to skip the doubles this week, do make it to the last 16, look for Errani to continue her domination over Vinci (Errani leads their head-to-head 5-2, having won the last five in a row).

First Round Match to Watch Out for – Sara Errani vs. Urszzula Radwanska
Upset Alert – Anastasia Pavlyuhenkova to upset Victoria Azarenka
Keep an eye out for – Ekaterina Makarova and Julia Georges
Predicted Quarter final – Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova vs. Sara Errani

Third Quarter

At no. 4, Agnieszka Radwanska is the top seed in this quarter. The Polish created a mini-stir a few days by going blonde, sending her fans into an online frenzy. Radwanska’s game this year has been nothing short of stellar either. While she still awaits a major title, the Pole has racked up a 23-5 record on the tour, with only 3 of those losses coming to players ranked below her – no. 6 Li Na, no. 8 Petra Kvitova and no. 15 Kirilenko. Not shabby at all!!

Radwanska could meet the talented but struggling Laura Robson in the second round (Robson is 2-6 since the Australian Open) and seems to be keeping Sloane Stephens company in the youngsters struggling with increased expectations category. The Pole could meet the winner of the all-Serb clash between former world no. 1 Ana Ivanovic and Jelena Jankovic. Jankovic has been in better form, winning 15 of her last 19 matches in a stretch that included a title in Bogota, the semis in Miami and the finals in Charleston. But it’s Ivanovic who has dominated their rivalry, leading 8-3 in career matches.

On the other side in this quarter is the sixth ranked German Angelique Kerber. The German has had a mixed season so far but has also avoided the sophomore slump yet. She could get the 11th seed Nadia Petrova or the former world no. 2 Svetlana Kuznetsova in round three. Both are streaky Russians who could be dangerous on a good day.

First Round Match to Watch Out for – Svetlana Kuznetsova vs. Jie Zheng
Upset Alert – Magdalena Rybarikova to beat Laura Robson
Keep an eye out for – Jelena Jankovic
Predicted Quarter final – Agnieszka Radwanska vs. Angelique Kerber

Fourth Quarter

Former cow on ice, now queen of clay – second seed Maria Sharapova leads this quarter. The reigning French Open champion has won her last 16 matches in a row on the dirt and should be able to negotiate her way past Shuai Peng in round two and 15th seed Dominika Cibulkova or Sabine Lisicki in the third round.

Sharapova is scheduled to meet eighth seed Petra Kvitova in the quarters. The former Wimbledon champion finds herself in the toughest section of the draw. After starting of the season with a 3-4 record, Kvitova has gone 20-6 since then. Kvitova opens up against the big hitting Belgian Yanina Wickmayer in the first round and then either Daniela Hantuchova or Sloane Stephens, who has been struggling mightily since her breakthrough in Melbourne.

Samantha Stosur, who has also had great success on clay in the past few years, is scheduled to meet Kvitova in the third round. But Stosur, who has been nursing a right calf injury, faces the tough Spaniard Carla Suarez Navarro (currently in the Portugal Open finals this week) first up and then meets either Flavia Pennetta or Kaia Kannepi.

First Round Match to Watch Out for – Daniela Hantuchova vs. Sloane Stephens
Upset Alert – Carla Suarez Navarro to beat Samantha Stosur
Keep an eye out for – Sabine Lisicki
Predicted Quarter final – Maria Sharapova vs. Carla Suarez Navarro

Semi- Finals Prediction – Serena Williams vs. Sara Errani; Maria Sharapova vs. Agnieszka Radwanska
Finals Prediciton – Serena Williams to beat Maria Sharapova