WTA Madrid Semis Preview - Serena and Sharapova start as favourites

Maria Sharapova celebrates a point against Estonian Kaia Kanepi during their women’s singles quarter-final at the Madrid Masters on May 10, 2013. Sharapova won 6-2, 6-4. (Getty Images)

The semi-final line-up at the WTA Mutua Madrid Open consists of three players who have won the French Open in previous years and a fourth who was a finalist in 2012. Serena Williams and Maria Sharapova entered the tournament as favourites and they are now just one match away from a showdown in the finals for the title and the world no. 1 ranking. Can Ana Ivanovic or Sara Errani spoil their party? Here’s our preview of the women’s semi-finals in Madrid later today:

(2) Maria Sharapova vs. (16) Ana Ivanovic
H2H – Sharapova leads 6-2

Ana Ivanovic has been in the middle ground in women’s tennis for quite a few years now. After winning her first and only grand slam title in 2008, the Serb’s game and serve suffered under the weight of increased expectations. While the rest of her game seems to be back in place, her serve is still vulnerable in clutch situations. If Ivanovic needs to see any hope that she can begin to rely on her serve once again, she only needs to look at her opponent across the net in Saturday’s semi-finals – the second ranked Maria Sharapova.

Following shoulder surgery and a lengthy lay-off, Sharapova’s serve had broken down as well. But with a few adjustments in swing and some self-belief, Sharapova’s serve is no more the liability it had once become. The Russian comes into the semi-finals riding high on a 20-match winning streak on clay and has dominated Ivanovic in their head-to-head.

The Serb should take some confidence from the fact that their last match, a few weeks ago in Stuttgart, was a close one with Sharapova barely winning that 6-4 in the third. Ivanovic has now won 8 of her last 9 matches on clay and will move up to no. 13 in the world next week even if she loses on Saturday. She could be headed back to the top 10 soon; only if her confidence and serve do not break down again. With a come from behind win over Laura Robson in the third round and an easy win over sixth ranked Angelique Kerber in the quarters, Ivanovic is looking like a top 10 player once again. But will that be good enough to beat Sharapova, who could return to the no. 1 spot in the world next week?

Prediction – Sharapova wins in two close sets

Serena Williams celebrates a point over Anabel Medina Garrigues during the women’s singles quarter-final at the Madrid Open on May 10, 2013 in Madrid, Spain. Williams won 6-3, 0-6, 7-5. (Getty Images)

(1) Serena Williams vs. (7) Sara Errani
H2H – Serena Williams leads 4-0

There’s no doubt that Serena Williams is playing the best tennis of anyone these days on the WTA Tour. But you might be surprised to know that Williams has not reached the finals of a red clay court event since 2002. Serena is 30-3 for the season and is on a 17-match winning streak. That does not sound good for her opponent, the diminutive Italian, Sara Errani – who has surprised many by continuing to play top-notch tennis after her breakthrough last year.

Errani has taken only one set off Serena in four career meetings but she could take some belief from fellow clay court grinder Anabel Medina Garrigues stretching Serena to 7-5 in the third set in Friday’s quarter-finals. Errani’s favorite surface is clay and her high top spin loopy groundstrokes may be something different from what Serena is used to playing against these days. But the high altitude and fast conditions in Madrid means the tide should swing in Serena’s favour once again.

Prediction – Serena Williams to win in straight sets