Can the Edmonton Oilers advance any further without 5 on 5 production?

By Sam Nestler

Modified May 13, 2023 15:26 GMT

The Edmonton Oilers are up against the wall after falling 4-3 to the Vegas Golden Knights in Game 5. The Oilers took a 1-0 lead before Vegas stormed back, scored three quick goals, and chased Stuart Skinner from the crease once again.

Edmonton scored three goals in the game, each of them coming on the power play.

While we know the capability and skill of the Oilers, there is one glaring issue during the Stanley Cup Playoffs: Edmonton cannot score at full strength.

So how have they gotten this far? Simple. Their power play is clicking at a ridiculous 47.4% success rate. The next best team is the Dallas Stars at 32.4%.

If you look at the trend of Edmonton's games, their inability to score playing 5 on 5 is evident.

The Oilers went 2-3 on the power play and scored four goals in Game 1. They scored four of their five goals in Game 2 on special teams (three PPG, one SHG). In Game 3 (1-7), Vegas found a way to (largely) shut down their power play, and the Oilers only scored once.

Aside from their Game 4 victory, the Oilers' success in the playoffs has been entirely dependent on their ability to score on special teams. Edmonton routinely wins games when they score on the power play. If they don't, they won't be able to put much on the board.

But even worse, their goaltending has let them down immensely. Right now, even when they dominate on the power play as they did in Game 5, they still lose. That is a tough recipe to somehow turn into a winning position.

Edmonton has scored a total of 22 goals at full strength, ranked last among remaining playoff teams. On the flip side, they have allowed 24 full-strength goals, second to last among those same teams.

The Oilers have created roughly the same number of chances (285) as they have allowed (292) when playing 5 on 5 (49.39%). That is not good enough.

The Edmonton Oilers will have trouble advancing if they cannot score 5 on 5

If this pattern continues, the Oilers will be doomed without even mediocre goaltending. While the power play can be a dangerous weapon over the course of a long playoff run, it is rarely, if ever, the lone weapon that leads to a championship.

If Edmonton is to win two straight against Vegas, they must find a way to convert 5 on 5.